BofA is pretty good at US inflation and January does tend towards stronger numbers. Core inflation should pick up in January We forecast core CPI inflation of 0.3% m/m (0.33% ungrounded) for January. They/y rate should tick down a tenth to 3.1%, due to favorable base effects. We also expect headline CPI to increase by
New data from Ray White, published in News.com.au, suggests that property investors continue to flee Victoria following state government land tax hikes. Ray White claimed that investors owned more than one-third of the 4332 Melbourne homes the agency auctioned in the 12 months to February 6, 2025, and 32.2% of regional Victorian homes auctioned. Ray White
Steel profitability is just about gone. CISA has solid output to start the year. The main price driver right now is seaborne uncertainty. Several storms across Australia’s north have damaged port infrastructure and disrupted shipments of iron ore and coal, with more rainfall threatening to saturate the operations of miners including Rio Tinto Group. But
Opposition is building against Peter Dutton’s plan to reinstate a “golden ticket” visa for wealthy investors who commit $5 million to enter Australia. These visas were abolished by the Albanese government one year ago. Dutton announced his intention at a Liberal Party fundraiser last month after a migration agent, Min Li, requested he reinstate the
A new energy shock is brewing as a cold European winter stalks Australia. European gas storage is falling the fastest since 2021. Prices are reacting, at two-year highs unseasonably. LNG imported to Australia is about $26Gj at these prices. Still nearly double today’s local prices. The cartel appears to be playing dead heading into the
Victoria is the most indebted state in Australia, with the lowest credit rating. Victoria’s net debt is projected to skyrocket in the coming years, which is expected to result in additional credit rating downgrades. When these downgrades occur, interest payments will skyrocket, increasing costs for Victorians and resulting in more taxes and less funding for
The Market Ear on ludicrously overbought gold. Gold – on the road to 3k Unstoppable gold continues surging today again. As we have been pointing out recently: gold is overbought, but there is room for it to move even higher before we reach the upper part of the channel (comes in around $3k). Source: Refinitiv
Current market pricing has ascribed a 93% probability that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut the official cash rate at next week’s monetary policy meeting. CBA’s head of Australian economics, Gareth Aird, ascribes an 80% probability of a 0.25% rate cut next week. Aird noted that the Q4 24 trimmed mean CPI came
DXY is firm. AUD too. Not lead boots. Commods ripped. Miners not so much. EM yawn. Sooner or later, junk will either rally or kill the wider bull. Curve steepened. Stocks have another crack ATH. I’m not sure why the sudden surge in commodities. Lifting global PMIs, for the most part. With some tariff hedging
Another round of Trump Tariffs overnight saw risk markets largely shake off the volatility even though the EU is gearing up to be next in sight as the global trade war heats up. Wall Street bounced back after watching the Superb Owl and absorbing the slightly weaker than expected jobs print on Friday night with