Risk markets are starting to diverge in fortuned once more as Wall Street and European shares continue their bounceback while commodities remain in flux due to the Chinese tariffs. Meanwhile the USD is weakening again as there is growing speculation the Fed may have more easing in its cycle as King Dollar struggles against Yen
DXY is breaking down. AUD is breaking up. Lead boots is a standing warning. Gold hugely overbought. Oil where it should be. Another copper bubblet. Yawn. Big miners are so yesterday. EM too. Dude, where’s my junk? As yields break down. Stocks never fall. US data was all over the place with weak JOLTS, strong
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that as of Q3 2024, real wages had fallen 6.7% from the June 2020 peak. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest Statement of Monetary Policy forecasts that real wages would still be 6.0% below the peak by the end of 2026, as illustrated below. On Tuesday, the
As Trump suggests adding the Gaza Strip to his swag of new States (I think we’re up to 54?), markets are setting up for Friday’s US NFP print with a potential call between Xi and the Orange Mussolini tonight as well. Meanwhile after reverting back to their pre-North American trade war starting points, currency markets
In January, Auckland’s largest real estate agency, Barfoot & Thompson, reported a hefty decline in median and average sale prices. “The median sales price for the month at $950,000 was down 5% on that for December, while the average price at $1,053,446 was down 11.2% and sales numbers at 700 were down 16%”, Peter Thompson,
The SMH’s Matt Wade published an article claiming that Sydney will remain Australia’s largest city for at least another decade. This is based on the Centre for Population’s latest forecasts, which predict that Sydney’s population will be 6.5 million by 2034-35, versus Melbourne’s 6.4 million. “At the turn of the 21st century, Greater Sydney’s population
There will be no such thing because such innovative graft is beyond any Australian politician. Instead, there will be Albohouse. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has succeeded in renting out his $4.3 million clifftop home on the NSW Central Coast after lowering the price, likely bringing in thousands a month for the four-bedroom property. The latest
The Market Ear with more. MEGA Coming into Tariff Monday, Europe was experiencing its second-best start to the year and SXXP hit an ATH – of course, skeptics will highlight that this is against a low bar, and the outperformance is mostly valuation-driven (as opposed to earnings-inspired). However, 21 of 25 EU sectors have outperformed
There are two key reasons why the federal government loves running a high immigration program. First, immigration stimulates the aggregate economy, as measured by GDP. Running a high immigration policy allows the government to claim that it is an effective economic manager, even when per capita GDP growth is negative (as it is right now)
There’s no reason to stop it. Inflation is tumbling. Inflation expectations re-anchored. Wage growth is smashed. The recent consumer bounce is fragile and related to lifting expectations of easing. It is also still meaningfully below the RBA forecast. Goldman has more. We also upgrade our tracking estimate for GDP growth in 4Q2024 by 10bps to