Articles from Poll Bludger
The High Court brought down its momentous ruling on the “citizenship seven” early this afternoon, which has resulted in four Senators (Larissa Waters and Scott Ludlam of the Greens, Fiona Nash of the Nationals and Malcolm Roberts of One Nation) and one member of the House of Representatives (Barnaby Joyce) losing their seats. Not disqualified are Nationals Senator Matt Canavan and Senator Nick Xenophon, the latter of whom will shortly be leaving anyway.
The Coalition recovers just a little bit from its low base in this week’s reading of BludgerTrack, which incorporates new results from Newspoll, Essential Research and YouGov. The Coalition is up half a point on the primary vote and 0.3% on two-party preferred, although the bigger mover is One Nation, which came in higher from all three pollsters. The only change on the seat projection is a gain for the Coalition in Victoria.
This week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average records an unusually solid two-point move in favour of the Coalition on two-party preferred, reducing Labor’s lead to 52-48. Nothing in The Guardian’s report on primary votes, so those will have to wait until later in the day.
With an election looming ever nearer, Newspoll records Labor with a 52-48 lead on state voting intention in Queensland, from primary votes of Labor 37%, LNP 34%, One Nation 16% and Greens 8%. This is an all new result, conducted from a sample of 917 respondents from Tuesday to Thursday last week, and not an accumulation of polling conducted over a longer period, as is often the case with state Newspoll results.
The first Newspoll result from The Australian in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 54-46, from primary votes of Coalition 36% (steady), Labor 37% (down one), Greens 10% (up one) and One Nation 9% (up one).
7.57pm. The two-party count in Murray has nearly caught up with the primary vote count, and the projected and actual Nationals leads have converged a bit above 3%, which I still expect to increase by about 1% in late counting. Whatever lingering doubt might have remained in Cootamundra has been dispelled by 3921 pre-polls, which suggest my projection of the Nationals gain on late counting in Murray may be a bit conservative.