I posted something similar on Facebook a few days back, and thought I might get some useful feedback here.
- Iran is criticised for violating their obligations under the NNPT. But the NNPT was signed by The Shah, who was a US puppet deposed in 1979. I do not think this obliges the current Iranian regime to follow it. After a revolution, previous agreements do not apply. Just ask the Romanov family! Admittedly, they have not formally withdrawn from the treaty, I guess for fear of the consequences.
- Bombing Iran was probably illegal for Israel. The UN charter allows preventative military action (where attack is not imminent) but it is hard to see how Iran was a direct threat after Hamas and Hezbollah have been effectively emasculated.
- The US were under no direct threat and had not exhausted other options since negotiation was ongoing, so they could not legally attack Iran. However, it turns out that once Iran retaliate against Israel, the Israelis can retaliate against Iran (even though their initial attack might have been illegal). And once Israel is in a legal war with Iran they can ask allies for assistance.
- The future of international relations appears lawless. It was already largely lawless after Iraq, which was also illegal. And then Crimea. For 60 years the world agreed that you cannot just militarily attack other countries with impunity. Now you clearly can – so long as you have nukes.
- This helps Russia and China. Indeed, Russia attacking Ukraine can be justified on the same basis as Israel attacking Iran. They were preventing a threat from Ukraine and NATO, the latter being an organisation specifically created to oppose Russia. China’s case is different, because they claim Taiwan is not a sovereign country. Invading Taiwan would possibly be legal, since Taiwan’s status as a country is unclear.
- The US have lost any credibility as negotiators. Trump abandoned the last Iran deal in 2017. He abandoned NAFTA in 2018 and then did his own deal (USMCA). He has abandoned that deal now, with tariffs on Mexico and Canada. When you abandon deals, future deals become vacuous. This is again terrible for the future of foreign relations. Negotiation is pointless if the other party has a track record of not honouring deals. I cannot for the life of me see why Iran would negotiate with the US in good faith. They will promise to do this and not do that, and then do it in secret. Why wouldn’t they?
- Iran now have every incentive to build a bomb asap. I am not sure if they have the wherewithal to do so. According to Netanyahu, they were weeks away (he has been saying this for 15 years). If it is really as easy as he says, the Mullahs would surely do so. So why then did he think it made sense to attack?
- If the Iranian govt falls, the replacement could be worse. More likely the country falls into chaos and civil war like Iraq and some very bad actors get hold of some highly enriched Uranium, which is easy to turn into a dirty bomb.
- There is a bizarre movement to have the son of the Shah return as leader. I suspect this would be terrible. The Shah was installed by the US when they fomented a revolution against the only democratic middle east leader in history, Mohammed Mssadeh. The Iranian people would never accept him, and nor should they. The US would love him, as he is brought up in the US.
- Why can Iran not have nukes? Because they will use them to destroy Israel? That would be a nuclear armed Israel. I really doubt it. NK have not used them. Neither has Russia despite threats. Neither has any country since 1945. Everyone knows that if you use nukes your country, regime and personal life is over. Kaput. I don’t want Iran (or anyone really) to have nukes, but the mantra “we cannot allow Iran to have nukes” is just bluster. China, Russia, NK and Pakistan all have nukes – all despotic regimes. I wish they didn’t but they will not use them.
- And since I mentioned NK, remember that Trump was President and did nothing to dissuade him from his nuclear program. He got seriously played for a fool, as usual. He could have stopped them in their tracks. How? Announce a 145% tariff on all Chinese products until they bring their bovver boy into line. Surely you could not threaten tariffs like that?!