A bruising result for the Coalition from Newspoll shows up as a meaty 0.7% shift on two-party preferred in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, yielding an extra seat for Labor in each of the four largest states on the seat projection. Newspoll furnishes a new seat of leadership ratings, and the latest aggregate readings reflect it in having both leaders down on net approval, with a modest reduction in Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on two-party preferred.
Articles from Poll Bludger
Tomorrow’s Sunday Times has a poll from Galaxy, related via Twitter, showing Labor with a 54-46 lead, which is all I can tell you about it at this stage (other than that it’s more in accordance with my own perceptions that ReachTEL’s statewide results). More to follow.
Today’s West Australian reports on a ReachTEL poll of 1706 respondents conducted for the Tourism Council across 15 marginal seats*, which – after exclusion of the 5% undecided – has Labor on 41.9% and the Liberals and Nationals between them on 36.4%, which compares with averaged results of 33.5% and 53.3% across the relevant seats in 2013. The Liberal and Nationals votes break down to 32.4% (48.1% in 2013) and 5.9% (5.2% in 2013, although it only fielded candidates in four of them).
James J relates Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian is at 55-45 in favour of Labor, up from 54-46 three weeks ago. The Coalition is down one on the primary vote to 35% with Labor up one to 37%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation up two to 10%. Both leaders record decidedly weak personal ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull crashing six on approval to 29% and up five on disapproval to 59%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 30% and up two to 56%.
A bit of a blip towards the Coalition in this week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which only has a new Essential Research result to go on. This translates into extra seats for the Coalition in Victoria and Queensland. The only other feature of the result worth remarking on is that it’s still onwards and upwards for One Nation.
A sweeping draft redistribution of Queensland’s state electoral boundaries has been published today, giving effect to an increase in parliamentary numbers from 89 to 93. Annastacia Palaszczuk has appeared to suggest the finalisation of the redistribution, which is scheduled for May 2017, may herald an early election.
Essential Research, which now comes to us courtesy of The Guardian Australia, records no change this week on two-party preferred, with Labor maintaining a lead of 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition is steady on 36%, Labor is down a point to 34%, One Nation is steady on 10%, and the Greens are up a point to 10%.
First and foremost, my attractively appointed seat-by-seat guide to the Western Australian state election is now open for business. Featured are detailed overviews of all 59 lower house seats plus interactive booth results maps and past election result charts. An upper house guide will follow in due course, God willing.