There now appears to be something of a breakout in Hillary Clinton’s favour on the presidential tracker, which is showing up clearly in the trend chart below. This has caused her razor thin lead on recent readings of the electoral college projection to blow out to 317 to 221, with Florida and North Carolina now in her column.
Articles from Poll Bludger
The last two days of national polling have taken some of the edge off the recent turn against Hillary Clinton, who is now projected with a lead of 48.0% to 45.0%, compared with 47.1% to 45.3% in the previous post two days ago. This causes North Carolina to move back into the Clinton column, and leaves Donald Trump hanging by a thread to Florida and Nevada.
The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has provided remarkably little excitement since it resumed two months ago, with the two-party preferred reading never moving more than a few fractions of a point away from 52-48 in favour of Labor, and the seat projections never changing at any stage, either in aggregate or at the state level. This week is no exception, the only new addition being a lightly weighted result from Essential Research.
Another two days’ worth of national opinion polls has Hillary Clinton down 0.3% to 47.1% and Donald Trump up by the same amount to 45.3%, while the state-level results produce no change to a situation that credits Clinton with the barest of victories in the electoral college, by 272 votes to 266.
The Australian has a Newspoll of state voting intention in Western Australia that has Labor leading 52-48, down from 54-46 in the previous poll published in May. On the primary vote, the Liberals and Nationals are steady on 40%, Labor is down one to 41%, and the Greens are down two to 9%. Colin Barnett’s personal ratings are now at dire levels, with approval down three to 28% and disapproval up three to 61%.
Our only new poll of national voting intention for the week is a stable reading of Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average, which has Labor’s lead steady at 52-48 from primary votes of Coalition 38% (steady), Labor 37% (steady), Greens 10% (steady), One Nation 6% (steady) and Nick Xenophon Team 2% (down one).
The latest reading of my presidential poll tracker is rather a lot different from the last, which is about half due to a very substantial shift in the polls in Donald Trump’s favour since the beginning of last week, and half due to me changing what had been a very conservative smoothing parameter that was ironing out short-term volatility, including the recent turn to Trump.
The West Australian today carries a ReachTEL poll of state voting intention showing Labor with a lead of 52-48, up from 51-49 at the last such poll in mid-September. On the primary vote, the Liberals are down 2.3% to 35.9%, the Nationals are up 0.7% to 6.1%, Labor are up 0.2% to 36.7%, and the Greens are down 0.8% to 7.7%.
While you were asleep, a story you can read about in depth elsewhere shook, and then partly settled, in relation to a story about the FBI looking into some emails relating to the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s server.
This week’s reading of BludgerTrack once again records next to no change whatsoever, with both Newspoll and Essential Research proving true to their recent form. The only perceptible shift is on personal ratings, thanks to Newspoll numbers which delivered Malcolm Turnbull the worst result of his prime ministership. Even here the change is limited to Turnbull’s net approval, with preferred prime minister essentially unchanged.