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Articles from Poll Bludger

Presidential election tracker: Clinton 48.0, Trump 45.0

November 5, 2016 - 06:54 -- Admin

The last two days of national polling have taken some of the edge off the recent turn against Hillary Clinton, who is now projected with a lead of 48.0% to 45.0%, compared with 47.1% to 45.3% in the previous post two days ago. This causes North Carolina to move back into the Clinton column, and leaves Donald Trump hanging by a thread to Florida and Nevada.

BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

November 4, 2016 - 06:40 -- Admin

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has provided remarkably little excitement since it resumed two months ago, with the two-party preferred reading never moving more than a few fractions of a point away from 52-48 in favour of Labor, and the seat projections never changing at any stage, either in aggregate or at the state level. This week is no exception, the only new addition being a lightly weighted result from Essential Research.

Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor in Western Australia

November 3, 2016 - 00:07 -- Admin

The Australian has a Newspoll of state voting intention in Western Australia that has Labor leading 52-48, down from 54-46 in the previous poll published in May. On the primary vote, the Liberals and Nationals are steady on 40%, Labor is down one to 41%, and the Greens are down two to 9%. Colin Barnett’s personal ratings are now at dire levels, with approval down three to 28% and disapproval up three to 61%.

Presidential poll tracker (remodelled): Clinton 47.4, Trump 45.0

November 1, 2016 - 06:52 -- Admin

The latest reading of my presidential poll tracker is rather a lot different from the last, which is about half due to a very substantial shift in the polls in Donald Trump’s favour since the beginning of last week, and half due to me changing what had been a very conservative smoothing parameter that was ironing out short-term volatility, including the recent turn to Trump.

BludgerTrack: 52.2-47.8 to Labor

October 28, 2016 - 05:47 -- Admin

This week’s reading of BludgerTrack once again records next to no change whatsoever, with both Newspoll and Essential Research proving true to their recent form. The only perceptible shift is on personal ratings, thanks to Newspoll numbers which delivered Malcolm Turnbull the worst result of his prime ministership. Even here the change is limited to Turnbull’s net approval, with preferred prime minister essentially unchanged.