Oz Blog News Commentary

Articles from Poll Bludger

I see England, I see France

April 21, 2017 - 05:04 -- Admin

UPDATE: Exit polls from France will be published 4am EST (i.e. early Monday morning), and the actual result should be clear about three hours after that, unless it’s particularly close.

There’s a lot of big election news going down right now at the other side of the globe, starting with the first round of France’s presidential elections on Sunday, to be followed a fortnight later by a run-off between the two leading candidates.

Western Australian election count endgame

March 22, 2017 - 14:08 -- Admin

Wednesday 2pm

We have the first finalised upper house result in, so I’m bumping this post. The Greens are relating that Robin Chapple has been re-elected in Mining and Pastoral, in what can only have been a close race against Labor’s third candidate, which presumably means a result of two for Labor and one apiece for the Liberals, Nationals, One Nation and Greens. More on that shortly. The other five regions, last I heard, are set to be determined tomorrow.

Monday morning

Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor

March 19, 2017 - 22:12 -- Admin

Newspoll records a much improved result for the Coalition, with Labor’s two-party lead cut from 55-45 to 52-48. The Coalition is up three on the primary vote to 37%, Labor is down two to 35%, One Nation are steady on 10%, and the Greens are down one to 9%. Malcolm Turnbull is up one on approval to 30% and down two on disapproval to 57%; Bill Shorten is down one to 29% and up one to 57%; and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has improved from 40-33 to 43-29.

ReachTEL: 53-47 to federal Labor in Western Australia

March 17, 2017 - 23:36 -- Admin

The weekend edition of The West Australian has results of a ReachTEL poll of federal voting intention in Western Australia, presumably conducted on Thursday night. It shows Labor with a lead of 53-47, which if borne out would amount to a 7.6% swing compared with last year’s election. I’m not sure about a federal poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of a state election, but there it is. More detail to follow.

Photo finishes: lower house

March 14, 2017 - 04:20 -- Admin

The ABC computer is now listing five seats in doubt, having today called Geraldton for Liberal and Kalgoorlie for Labor. One of the doubtful is the Nationals-versus-Liberal contest of Kalgoorlie, where the ABC computer is projecting a comfortable Liberal winning margin of 4.2%. However, this is based on a speculative preference estimate, as no notional two-party count is being conducted, so we won’t know exactly what’s happened here until the end of the count.