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Articles from Poll Bludger

Presidential election tracker: Clinton 48.0, Trump 45.0

November 5, 2016 - 06:54 -- Admin

The last two days of national polling have taken some of the edge off the recent turn against Hillary Clinton, who is now projected with a lead of 48.0% to 45.0%, compared with 47.1% to 45.3% in the previous post two days ago. This causes North Carolina to move back into the Clinton column, and leaves Donald Trump hanging by a thread to Florida and Nevada.

BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

November 4, 2016 - 06:40 -- Admin

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has provided remarkably little excitement since it resumed two months ago, with the two-party preferred reading never moving more than a few fractions of a point away from 52-48 in favour of Labor, and the seat projections never changing at any stage, either in aggregate or at the state level. This week is no exception, the only new addition being a lightly weighted result from Essential Research.

Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor in Western Australia

November 3, 2016 - 00:07 -- Admin

The Australian has a Newspoll of state voting intention in Western Australia that has Labor leading 52-48, down from 54-46 in the previous poll published in May. On the primary vote, the Liberals and Nationals are steady on 40%, Labor is down one to 41%, and the Greens are down two to 9%. Colin Barnett’s personal ratings are now at dire levels, with approval down three to 28% and disapproval up three to 61%.

Presidential poll tracker (remodelled): Clinton 47.4, Trump 45.0

November 1, 2016 - 06:52 -- Admin

The latest reading of my presidential poll tracker is rather a lot different from the last, which is about half due to a very substantial shift in the polls in Donald Trump’s favour since the beginning of last week, and half due to me changing what had been a very conservative smoothing parameter that was ironing out short-term volatility, including the recent turn to Trump.