With an election looming ever nearer, Newspoll records Labor with a 52-48 lead on state voting intention in Queensland, from primary votes of Labor 37%, LNP 34%, One Nation 16% and Greens 8%. This is an all new result, conducted from a sample of 917 respondents from Tuesday to Thursday last week, and not an accumulation of polling conducted over a longer period, as is often the case with state Newspoll results.
The first Newspoll result from The Australian in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 54-46, from primary votes of Coalition 36% (steady), Labor 37% (down one), Greens 10% (up one) and One Nation 9% (up one).
7.57pm. The two-party count in Murray has nearly caught up with the primary vote count, and the projected and actual Nationals leads have converged a bit above 3%, which I still expect to increase by about 1% in late counting. Whatever lingering doubt might have remained in Cootamundra has been dispelled by 3921 pre-polls, which suggest my projection of the Nationals gain on late counting in Murray may be a bit conservative.
The one brand new poll for the week, from Essential Research, made so little change to the BludgerTrack voting intention numbers that I had to double check the result. There was also an infusion of new state breakdown data courtesy of Newspoll’s quarterly state-level results, but the only difference this has made is to add one to the Coalition tally in New South Wales and subtract one in Queensland.
The Advertiser has sprung into action after Nick Xenophon’s announcement he would contest the eastern Adelaide seat of Hartley for his SA Best party at the March state election, by commissioning a Galaxy automated phone poll of 516 respondents in the electorate. This has Liberal incumbent Vincent Tarzia on 38%, Xenophon on 35%, Labor on 17%, Greens on 6% and Australian Conservatives on 3%. On respondent-allocated preferences, this translates into a 53-47 lead to Xenophon.
Yesterday’s Sydney Morning Herald had a ReachTEL poll of state voting intention in New South Wales, showing the Coalition with a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred. After exclusion of the 8.1% undecided, primary votes are Coalition 40.9%, Labor 33.7%, Greens 9.9%, One Nation 8.9% and Shooters Fishers and Farmers 2.4%.
Yesterday’s Sydney Morning Herald had a ReachTEL poll of state voting intention in New South Wales, showing the Coalition with a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred. After exclusion of the 8.1% undecided, primary votes are Coalition 40.9%, Labor 33.7%, Greens 9.9%, One Nation 8.9% and Shooters Fishers and Farmers 2.4%.
The Guardian reports this week’s Essential Research fortnight rolling average result has Labor’s two-party lead steady at 54-46, with primary votes to follow later today.
The Australian has published the regular quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender and age cohort, in this case accumulating polling conducted from July through September. Its numbers will be added to BludgerTrack to this week, and the state relativities will become more like Newspoll’s direction as a result.
Three new polls this week, from ReachTEL, Essential Research and YouGov, has moved Labor to a just-shy-of-career-best result in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, on which they now hold a two-party lead of 53.9-46.1. However, the seat projection total is unchanged, as a gain for Labor in Queensland is balanced by a loss in South Australia. The big move on the primary vote is to One Nation at the expense of the Coalition. No new results this week for the leadership trends.