A big week for opinion polling hasn’t translated into a big week for BludgerTrack, which records basically no movement at all on two-party preferred, although there’s some movement on the primary vote from the minor to the major parties, the Greens to Labor especially. On the seat projection, the Coalition is up one in Victoria and South Australia, but down one in Queensland.
No change on voting intention from Essential Research this week, at all – Labor leads 54-46, from primary votes of Coalition 37%, Labor 38%, Greens 10% and One Nation 6%.
Two more sets of post-voting intention budget numbers, though nothing yet on their regular questions on response to the budget:
Sky News reports the first post-budget poll, from ReachTEL, has Labor leading 53-47. After exclusion of the 10.6% undecided, the primary vote results are Liberal 34.2%, Nationals 3.8%, Labor 34.1%, One Nation 11.0% and Greens 10.9%.
The regular Essential Research result is the only entry in an inevitably quiet week of opinion polling, to be followed by a post-budget deluge next week.
Update
4.00am. The sampled count result is in: Macron 65.1%, Le Pen 34.9%.
3.15am. Actually, what will be published at 4am will be the sampled early count of actual voting, which proved pinpoint accurate last time. Exit polls are coming out now, and have Macron at around 63%.
2.15am. I’m giving this a bump in case anyone’s about who wishes to discuss tonight’s results from France. Exit polls will be out at 4am.
Earlier:
Rumney results and projection
#
%
Swing
Projection
Cheryl Arnol (SFP)
1220
6.7%
Sarah Lovell (ALP)
6268
34.3%
+1.2%
34.0%
Steve Mav (IND)
3549
19.4%
Tony Mulder (IND)
4760
26.0%
-2.2%
26.1%
Shelley Shay (IND)
1455
8.0%
Debra Thurley (IND)
1023
5.6%
Booths counted (out of 20):
19
Before we proceed, please note posts below on British and French elections, and a bumper post on Tasmania that encompasses newly published federal and state electorate boundaries, today’s three elections for seats in the state’s upper house, and a state poll result that provides good news for the new Labor leader
We’re now two days away from the run-off election for the French presidency, and a bit under five weeks away from the general election in Britain. A ban on polling in the final days of French election kicks in around about now, and they suggest that centrist contender Emmanuel Macron’s 60-40 lead over far right candidate Marine Le Pen as of a week ago has widened a little as the big day approaches.
A helpful conjunction of events allows me to condense three pieces of Tasmanian electoral news into one post, namely the publication of draft boundaries of the state’s five federal and state electorates; tomorrow’s elections for three of the state’s 15 Legislative Council seats; and the quarterly poll of state voting intention from EMRS. In turn:
Draft electoral redistribution