Good morning, I have been writing this blog post after getting home to wrap my own head around the scale of the count. I expect I will have some issues with the website’s accessibility today, so some of this may also be posted over on Tally Room in Exile, my backup blog.
Polls have just closed on the east coast.
You can discuss the election results here tonight.
I won’t be liveblogging tonight – I’ll be helping with the ABC’s election coverage. But I’ll be back on Sunday with some written analysis and a podcast.
I suspect the website may struggle with traffic tonight, but I am just going to let it cope as best it can.
Polls have just opened on the east coast in today’s federal election.
I won’t be posting today, but you can discuss the election here.
I’ll put up another open thread at 6pm. I won’t be liveblogging tonight – I’ll be helping with the ABC’s election coverage. But I’ll be back on Sunday with some written analysis and a podcast.
I don’t have another idea for today’s blog post, so why don’t we use this as a thread for everyone to make their final predictions.
Primary votes for major parties have hit a record low, and they may break that record this weekend. There are also more crossbenchers in the House of Representatives than ever before, with numerous other credible candidates threatening to produce an even larger crossbench in the new parliament. Certainly there is a lot of talk about a hung parliament.
Ben is joined by Peter Brent and the ABC’s Tom Crowley for the final pre-election episode of the 2025 federal election campaign. We discuss how a hung parliament might play out and the experience of riding Peter Dutton’s campaign bus. For our seat of the week we discuss the NSW seat of Werriwa.
This blog post is an update to two blog posts I wrote in 2022, looking at the rate of counting progress on election night and how the primary vote for Labor, the Coalition and the Greens shifts over the course of the night.
As increasing numbers of Australians have chosen to vote early, we have now reached a point where the country is split roughly into two halves – one half voting before election day, through pre-poll voting, postal voting and remote booths, and the other half casting their vote on the day.
Rates of early voting have been increasing for a long time, but reached a record high level of 2022, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. I most recently summarised these statistics at a federal level in this blog post.
Australia’s states often swing in different ways, with trends noticeable at the state level rather than just at the state or regional level. For this reason, I usually choose to measure 2PP results against the state result, rather than the national result.
At the 2010 federal election, the Coalition gained swings in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia, but Labor actually gained ground in Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania.