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Booth map of the day – Bean and Fremantle

May 22, 2025 - 09:30 -- Admin

Next up on booth map of the day, I’m looking at two seats that were previously considered safe Labor seats, but were very narrowly retained against independent challengers: Bean in southern Canberra and Fremantle in Western Australia.

For each map I’ve shown the Labor vs Independent 2CP map (but no 2CP swing map), primary vote maps for the independent, Labor and Liberal, and primary vote swing maps for Labor and Liberal.

The Nationals dilemma

May 21, 2025 - 11:01 -- Admin

Yesterday, the Nationals announced that they would not be renewing the coalition with the Liberal Party following the 2025 federal election. This is unlikely to be a permanent break, but rather the parties taking some time apart to re-assess their positions after a devastating election defeat.

Calwell distribution commences, with Moore off to a strong start

May 20, 2025 - 14:48 -- Admin

The AEC has now commenced the distribution of preferences for the seat of Calwell. Normally the AEC does not publish distribution of preference data until the count has concluded, but in recognition of the great deal of public interest the AEC has published a page where they will post the latest DoP data after each round of the count.

Bradfield headed for recount, with Boele in the lead

May 19, 2025 - 16:11 -- Admin

The two-candidate-preferred count in Bradfield has finished, with teal independent Nicolette Boele finally taking the lead right at the end, thanks to a very strong batch of postal votes and also a favourable batch of pre-poll ballots.

The AEC website says that there are 59 votes outstanding, but I have been informed by the AEC media team that these ballots can only be counted for the Senate, not the House, and so the House count has finished.

Booth map of the day – northern Tasmania

May 16, 2025 - 09:30 -- Admin

Tasmania flew under the radar in the lead up to the recent election, because of the lack of state polling in Tasmania. It was a “known unknown” to quote Donald Rumsfeld, and I do remember commenting that we didn’t know how things were going in Tasmania, but still we did not know. This did create space for some fevered commenters on this website to confidently assert that Labor was on track to be badly beaten, but now we know better.

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