New NSW by-election guides added
It’s been two weeks since I first posted about the resignations of three Coalition MPs leading to impending by-elections, and the guides I’ve prepared for those by-elections.
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The City of Blacktown’s population boom
This is a follow-up to Wednesday’s post about voter enrolment numbers increasing in Camden Council, this time looking at the equivalent growth taking place in the north-west of Sydney, primarily in the north-eastern corner of the City of Blacktown.
Camden Council’s population transformation
On Monday, I posted about the trends in population growth across Sydney as seen in the NSWEC enrolment data, with a particular focus on Camden, which has more than doubled in size over the last fourteen years.
This growth in population has not been even, but has rather been concentrated at the northern end of the council, totally transforming the political geography of the area.
Which councils are absorbing Sydney’s population growth?
I have been paying a lot of attention to local councils in New South Wales over the past year, with a particular focus on the more populous councils. As part of my analysis, I decided to draw a line under those councils with a population of over 100,000 people. When I prepared my guides for the 2016 and 2017 council elections, there were 23 councils meeting this criteria. But now there are 25, with Camden and Shoalhaven councils crossing the line since the last round of elections.
Berejiklian’s exit triggers by-election Super Saturday
The resignation of NSW premier Gladys Berejiklian on Friday under a cloud of investigation by the Independent Commission Against Corruption has now led to two of her ministers also announcing their pending resignations, not just from cabinet but from the parliament. This means we will see at least three NSW state by-elections in the coming months.
I have now prepared a guide to all three seats which is free for all to check out:
WA’s upper house shifting to one big electorate
The current voting system for the Western Australian upper house is set to be overhauled after the WA state government accepted the recommendations of its expert panel earlier today. The panel has recommended the abolition of all regions used to elect the upper house, with 37 members1 to be elected by one statewide electorate, thus abolishing the severe malapportionment that has given far more power to rural voters.
Papua New Guinea’s latest attempt at redistribution
Papua New Guinea’s parliament is elected from single-member electorates which are meant to be regularly reviewed and redrawn, as they are in Australia. Yet the current boundaries have not been significantly changed since the 1977 election. The Boundaries Commission is having another go now, but the proposed changes have limited relationship to the actual population imbalances.
South Australian election guide launched
I’ve now completed my guide to the South Australian state election, due on March 19 next year.
The guide features profiles of all 47 House of Assembly electorates, as well as the Legislative Council contest.
Daly by-election guide, and new data
I have now published a guide to the by-election in the Northern Territory seat of Daly, which will be held on the 11th of September. Daly is a very marginal Country Liberal seat and may well be in play. There aren’t really enough election-day booths in rural NT electorates to do my typical booth maps, so I’ve tried a different format which also includes pre-poll booths.
NSW state redistribution finalised
The final electoral boundaries to be used at the 2023 New South Wales state election were released on Thursday, and I have now finished my new electoral map, along with estimates of margins.