One of the trends I’ve started hearing about over the last day or two, thanks to the very smart commenters on this blog, is that booth swings in a bunch of suburban seats in Sydney and Melbourne were particularly strong in the areas with a large population of Chinese-Australian voters. So I thought I would try and visualise this effect, or see if it was just anecdote.
Prior to the election I wrote about the long-term downward trend in support for the major parties, and how polling suggested that this trend would continue in 2022. Not only has it continued, but it has accelerated.
So I thought I’d show how that vote has declined in 2022, and then look at how that changes the outcomes of House of Representatives races in various ways.
Ben is joined by Kevin Bonham to discuss the results of yesterday’s federal election.
Wow! Okay so where are we at on Sunday morning?
With my work in the Guardian we have called 132 seats. There’s a handful I haven’t called (such as Parramatta and Werriwa) that can probably be called once the pre-poll vote comes in.
Decided
Leading
Total
Labor
70
9
79
Coalition
51
5
56
Crossbench
11
5
16
6:31 – I’ll have the full list on the Guardian liveblog, but there are 11 independents on the east coast included in the TCP. This includes three incumbents, one running against Labor (Dai Le in Fowler) and two regional candidates (Jack Dempsey in Hinkler and Rob Priestly in Nicholls), with the rest typical teal candidates.
I hadn’t been planning to write a substantive blog post for election day – I usually just post an open thread for discussion during the day. But yesterday I had an idea for one more bit of analysis that seems relevant to consider before tonight.
Today’s blog post will be short. I’m creating this as an open thread to make your predictions about how the result will go.
I’ll be back with an open thread for election day tomorrow and there will be a liveblog on the night, although I will primarily be contributing to the Guardian’s results liveblog and seat-calling efforts. I’ll then be back with analysis on Sunday, and I’ll be recording a podcast with Kevin Bonham on Sunday afternoon to get out as quickly as possible.
I thought it was about time to do another update of the early voting statistics.
As of the end of Wednesday, 3.87 million people had cast a pre-poll vote. This compares to 3.52 million as of the same point in 2019, and a cumulative total of just under 4.8 million as of the end of the 2019 pre-poll period.
As is always the case, the election campaign has been very much focused on the House of Representatives. But there are some interesting potential outcomes in the Senate.
Ben is joined this week by Jill Sheppard and Peter Brent to discuss the state of the campaign, long term voting trends and the seat of Dickson in Queensland.