Charlie McElligott at Nomura on a post-election melt-up. Equities are resilient after last week’s mini-wobble and with “Vol leak” pressures building, while USTs are rallying significantly alongside US Dollar being hit lower….as “Harris (Gridlock)” is trending ‘hard’ in final polling, reversing some of that past month’s-worth of “Trump (Red Sweep)” hedging –premium, which is seeing
Former Home Affairs Minister Claire O’Neil lamented last year that Australia’s migration system encouraged too many temporary residents, creating “huge problems” and holding the country back. “Today, really for the first time in our modern history, our uncapped, unplanned temporary program is the centrepiece and driver of our migration system. This simple fact is the
The Guardian’s Benita Kolovos penned a propaganda piece entitled “Downsizing the Australian dream: why families are trading houses with back yards for apartments”, putting a positive spin on forcing Australian families to live in high-rise apartments. The article profiled a family of four living in a two-bedroom, two-bathroom apartment in the inner Melbourne suburb of
Ross Gittins needs to do some fact-checking: For several years, we had prices rising at a rate that was actually lower than the Reserve Bank and economists regarded as healthy: less than 2 per cent a year. But then, in the months before the federal election in May 2022, at which Scott Morrison and crew
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ABC political reporter Keane Bourke acknowledges that “Australia doesn’t have enough houses”. Bourke also believes that there is “a hidden capacity in the market which, in theory, could help solve that problem”, namely an abundance of homes with spare bedrooms. According to Bourke, Australia would have capacity “for about five million extra people” if these
Australia’s governments want to ‘solve’ the housing crisis by pushing Australians into high-rise apartments. However, high-rise apartment approvals have collapsed, as illustrated in the following chart: Since peaking between 2015 and 2017, high-rise approvals have fallen by the following amounts across the major markets: NSW: down 74% from the September 2016 peak. VIC: down 68%
So far, sales of new property have not been better than prior stimulus bursts: Sell-side sentiment is not better, either. The demand side is a bit better. The bounce in new home search measures is barely perceptible and over. There has been some improvement in inventory as completions fall away. There is nothing here for
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I promised myself I wouldnt read, view, listen to or in any way consume a single data point of reporting, analysis, wishcasting, whatever about the US election this week. Not until it was all over, bar the civil war.
I have, of course, failed miserably in that.
But today… today will be different. I mean it this time.
I won’t be checking a damn thing until at least the cocktail hour this evening.
The RBA was firmly neutral yesterday, but it cut its outlook for growth, wages, inflation, and real household disposable income materially. In fact, just about the only measure it increased was public spending leading to better jobs. However, this is clearly a zombie economy operating without dynamism and far below potential, equal in weakness to
DXY is fading as election counting begins: AUD is voting Harris: North Asia too: Everything is voting Harris as the Crap Complex rallies: Bonds for Harris too: Stoxks hard to tell: There is not much to add this morning. I still think Harris by a neck, in which case AUD will fly.
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