Partial data received so far suggest that Australia’s economy will post only modest growth in Q1 2025 and is likely to show a negative per capita GDP print. The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) Household Spending Indicator (MHSI) recorded zero growth in volume terms in Q1 2025. The latest ABS labour force release suggested that
The Productivity Commission (PC) released a research report entitled “Productivity before and after COVID-19”, which claims that Australia experienced a ‘productivity bubble’ during the pandemic, in which measured labour productivity rose to a record high between January 2020 and March 2022 before returning to pre-pandemic levels in June 2023. The PC claims that Australia is
The big news of the day is a possible reversal of ALL of the Trump regime’s tariffs (except steel/aluminium) due to a court order, although it remains to be seen if Don Taco will actually abide by the legal decision. This has seen a big relief rally across all risk markets and with the USD
The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.
Deutsche has an interesting breakdown of some of the world’s largest trade surpluses and where the money ends up. Yesterday Japan’s Ministry of Finance reported that Japan had lost its top spot as the world’s largest creditor nation to Germany, for the first time since 1991. This made some headlines in Germany, and was hardly
The post Do xenophobes prefer Germans or Japanese? appeared first on MacroBusiness.
Australia’s futures market expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to deliver another three 0.25% interest rate cuts this year, which would take the official cash rate down to 3.1%. The latest Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) from the RBA seems to support this notion, given that it significantly lowered its estimate of the neutral
The ferrous complex is unwinding. Steel is under the pump. Bloomberg. Prices of a key Chinese steel product used in construction were at their lowest since 2017 as the world’s biggest market for the metal grappled with a massive glut. Reinforcement bar — or rebar for short — is a benchmark for China’s traditional steel
The post Steel plummets, iron ore levitates appeared first on MacroBusiness.
It sounds huge. China is on the cusp of its biggest move yet to open up its vast commodities markets, after the Shanghai Futures Exchange unveiled an internationalization plan to streamline access for overseas investors. The country’s biggest raw materials bourse is soliciting views on a proposal to let participants post foreign exchange as collateral for yuan-denominated trades, according
The International Energy Agency, in its latest oil market report, raised historical demand estimates. As a result, the IEA now estimates that the oil market was slightly undersupplied last year, while previously it forecasted a small surplus in 2024. With demand seasonally rising and the eight OPEC+ member states with additional voluntary cuts likely still
The post Oil to remain cheap appeared first on MacroBusiness.
Modelling undertaken by Tulipwood Economics on behalf of the Council of Small Business Organisations of Australia suggests that reducing the sector’s tax take could significantly boost economic activity. The modelling claims that reducing the tax rate for small businesses from 25% to 20% could increase GDP by between $5.2 billion and $11 billion over the