Sense never lasts long in the iron ore market. The market is still trading the long gone Pilbara cyclones. With China stocks down. Even though production is well and truly recovered. Apparent demand is a little better that 2024 for flat. And a little worse for long. Ahead are cuts, cuts, cuts! But the market
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According to Yuri Shvets, who was posted to Washington by the USSR in the 1980s, Donald Trump was cultivated as a Russian asset over 40 years and proved so willing to parrot anti-western propaganda that there were celebrations in Moscow. Shvets was a key source for American Kompromat, a book by journalist Craig Unger. Shvets, a KGB major at the time, had a cover job as a correspondent in Washington for the Russian news agency Tass. He moved to the US permanently in 1993 and gained American citizenship.
Deloitte Access Economics released its Budget Monitor, which estimates an underlying cash deficit of $26.1 billion in 2024-25, $0.8 billion above the expected outcome in the 2024-25 Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO). Larger underlying cash deficits are also forecast over the following three years. Net debt is also expected to increase to 19.6% of
The Market Ear says buy. Keep it simple Oversold can stay oversold for longer than most think possible, but deeply oversold, like now, has led to violent bounces kicking in over the past years. Source: Refinitiv Time to (ever) place some buy orders? Still early in the month, but JPM estimates that the potential equity
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Cheap energy is the life blood of any modern economy. Take it away and everything suffers. The Australian. Australian businesses have suffered the sharpest annual fall in gross operating margins in a quarter of a century due to inflation-driven costs, including a “staggering” 51 per cent spike in gas prices, putting at risk Jim Chalmers’
Starts off looking like a southern gothic crime thriller starring a beat down Kevin Bacon as a gnarled bounty hunter…
Ok, you have my attention.
Goes sideways. Hard.
It looks kind of terrible, and yet… terribly good fun.
The pet shop has gone mad this weekend with all and sundry declaring ANZUS dead and Australia alone in the world. America may abandon NATO though I doubt that as well. It looks more to me like America wants Europe to pay its own way in its defence. There is no danger to America from
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Goldman with the note. Our US economists recently revised their growth forecasts and are now below consensus for the first time in almost three years. At the same time, our European economists responded to the unprecedentedGerman spending plans by upgrading their Euro area growth forecasts despitethe looming tariff threats. As a result, we are also
While Wall Street rebounded on Friday night it was basically just a short covering exercise after falling for four weeks straight with expectations of higher volatility continuing this trading week amid the ongoing trade war and a very busy economic calendar, including the latest Fed meeting. European stocks got a breather as well but are
The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.
It’s been evident since Trump’s inauguration that the US, as we knew it, is over. I’ve been looking at some of the US-centred organisations and economic dependencies that will need to be rebuilt. But I hadn’t given much thought to the university sector, where I work, until I got an urgent email asking everyone at the University of Queensland to advise the uni admin if we had any projects involving US funding.
Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.
I’m now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow me on Mastodon here.
I reported last week how Australian households have endured the largest decline in real per capita disposable incomes on record after falling by around 8% from their mid-2022 peak. Australia’s decline in real per capita household disposable incomes has also been the largest in the OECD since the beginning of the pandemic. Analysis of the
Last year, former federal Treasury official Stephen Anthony warned that Victoria could require a federal “bailout” amid soaring state debt, which hit $27,729 per person in 2023-24. “Victoria is on a suicide mission to record borrowing, just as global interest rates are about to hit 5%”, Anthony warned. “Potholes can’t get filled, emergency departments can’t
Washington under President Donald Trump has created more “uncertainty”than the Covid-19 pandemic, Luis de Guindos, the vice president of the European Central Bank (ECB), has claimed.