Trump blowoff is still the base case. But, jeez, this market is vulnerable to shocks. The Market Ear. Unstoppable force of Momentum The Momentum factor has been on a tear lately. Source: GS Most overbought since 2007 US 1M Momo has rallied 18% in a week, pushing the 14D RSI to the most overbought level
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Every time a fascist-flirting regime is defeated in an election, more column inches and podcast minutes are devoted to the sense that the moral arc of the universe bends towards justice. When Trump, Bolsonaro, Sunak’s Tories or the Law and Justice Party in Poland lose elections, the centrist commentariat breathes a sigh of relief, believing…
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It’s machine-like trading around the US dollar at the moment. DXY up is dirt, mining, EM and junk negative. Down is the inverse. Today we are down. AUD up. North Asia doesn’t want a bar of it. Dirt is flying. Miners more muted. EM up. Junk is still melancholy. Even as bonds are bid. With
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The subservience of the Labor-Coalition political class to Washington is now almost complete. It is no longer possible to consider the Albanese-Dutton political groupings as anything other than propagandists for US imperial interests. This has been apparent for some time, but it has now reached the stage of making John Howard’s role as “deputy sheriff” appear as a form of forceful independence.
Westpac with the note. • Leading Index has moved into positive territory, from –0.20% in September to +0.26% in October. • This provides a tentative signal that growth momentum is set to improve from its current nadir. • Improvements mostly centred on components related to consumer sentiment and commodity prices. Hardly tearing it up.
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Two charts tell the story of the bare-knuckled fight between the RBA and the Albanese government. In the blue corner is the RBA which won’t cut rates because trimmed mean inflation is too high at 3.5%. In the red corner is the Albanese government which has used energy rebates to lower headline inflation to 2.8%
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The Coalition is under scrutiny for joining forces with the Greens to block legislation to cap new international student numbers from 2025. Education Minister Jason Clare says Opposition leader Peter Dutton has no credibility regarding immigration, given that he stated in his budget reply speech in May that a Coalition government would introduce a cap
Trump’s victory has exposed, for a second time, the failings of the entire US political system and its pursuit of a capitalist, imperialist agenda.
We need to look beyond conventional politics and policy to understand Trump’s triumph. The election was really about America’s declining quality of life.
Nothing special about this property easing. Leading index flatlined. Top tiers OK. Ghost cities fading. Inventory better. Completions ending the yer better too. A long way from out of the woods.
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The Australian dream of home ownership is fading for younger Australians. The 2023 Intergenerational Report illustrated the sharp structural decline in home ownership rates among younger Australians, following decades of strong price growth and stagnating incomes. The above chart is based on 2021 Census data, and the housing affordability picture facing younger Australians has deteriorated
Alec Baldwin portrayed President-elect Trump’s nominee to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), Robert F. Kennedy Jr., in the latest “Saturday Night Live” episode this weekend.
Ukraine should ramp up military mobilization and send more troops to fight Russia, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has suggested in an interview with PBS News on Monday. Sullivan also rejected the argument that more American weapons could turn the tide on the frontlines.