According to the ABS, Australia continues to experience unprecedented labour demand. The problem is that the index is the worst available. Private measures are far below and heading back into the lowflation period. Goldman explains the ABS rubbish measure: Structural trends such as lower advertisement costs and a shift to more temporary positions tend to
As the risks of a downward glide path for elements of China’s industrial economy continues to become clear, the risks for Australia’s economy and in particular state and federal Treasury outlooks are becoming increasingly apparent. So far the hole left in China’s iron ore consumption left by the dramatic decline in the residential property sector
Global reflation ahoy! DXY down. AUD up. Lead boots up. Gold’s stall is signalling DXY may be running out of downside soon. Metals reflation. Miners up for a day. EM breaks out. Junk breaks out. Yields melting down. Stocks melting up. Buy all the things. Except DXY and European stocks, apparently. The market loved the
There’s no greater example of the disconnect of stock markets with economic reality with Wall Street surging overnight to almost historic highs on the back of a worsening Q1 GDP print and signs that Q2 will show the number 1 economy is in a full recession. What is reflecting reality are currency markets with the
Credit ratings agency S&P notes that the combined budget deficits of Australia’s state and federal governments total $52 billion, while the net debt now exceeds 60% of the country’s GDP. This equates to a per capita deficit of $1,897 and a net debt of $45,183 per capita. Meanwhile, the combined net debt of the federal,
When the pandemic arrived on Australia’s shores in early 2020, housing was already unaffordable for a majority of households, as illustrated by falling homeownership rates and declining rates of household formation. But like the joke that a Russian family friend used to describe his nation’s history, the events that would unfold for Australia’s housing market
Equity markets outside of Japan in Asia are dragging their feet despite a weaker USD with the Trump regime putting more pressure on Fed Chair Powell not helping. The USD is failing to clawback lost ground with Euro, Swiss Franc and Yuan all making new highs against the “King” as the absence of any real
The housing affordability situation in New Zealand is rapidly improving, unlike Australia. Turning to the rental market first, TradeMe reported a 3.1% annual decline in New Zealand asking rents in May, with all major markets experiencing declines. Stats NZ and the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) also reported a sharp decline in national
Below is a fascinating note from Goldman on US tariffs. The domestic corporate goods price index (CGPI) fell -0.2% mom in May, the first decline since August last year, due to lower gasoline prices. In yoy terms, the index decelerated sharply to +3.2% (April: +4.1%). Domestic prices for machinery-related categories showed a mixed picture of
With a Labour government running an immigration-led labour market expansion economic model that intrinsically lowers living standards, the last thing beleaguered Australian households needed was the RBA to join the economic stomping. But that’s exactly what they’ve had, as a politicised RBA refused to canvass what the model means for inflation. Most pointedly, there won’t