The Market Ear with more. Negative asymmetry for equities near-term Goldman’s macro strategists are not buying the summer melt-up thesis and are sounding more cautious than in a while. “We are tactically neutral in our asset allocation (OW cash, N equities/credit/bonds, UW commodities). We still expect a worsening growth/inflation mix in 2H and elevated risk
This is the ship of fools that nearly cut rates 50bps in May, then didn’t cut at all in the following meeting despite an economy that had clearly deteriorated. Chair Michele Bullock is not a macroeconomist. Deputy chair Andrew Hauser is a macroeconomist Marnie Baker AM is not a macroeconomist. Renée Fry-McKibbin is a macroeconomist.
DXY is trying to rally. AUD has flamed out despite RBA’s inept monetary policy. Lead boots are going downhill again. Gold is shaky, oil stupid. The copper chaos intensifies. Miners meh. EM meh. Junk up. With yields down. A stalled EUR is rescuing stocks. UBS captures the moment. British pop group Bucks Fizz gained international
Overnight saw Wall Street rebound on the back of tech stocks with NVIDIA leading the way while broader industrials were dragged along amid the tariff chaos. Its becoming increasingly clear the Trump regime is using the tariff mechanism to browbeat, bully and extort trading “partners” not due to trade imbalances (real or imagined) but as
Most Asian share markets are lifting higher despite a very weak lead from Wall Street, while local stocks are taking a double whammy due to the expected rate cut from the RBA turning into a hold and then the Trump regime’s bullying tariffs on pharmaceuticals. There’s more tariff announcements and letter printing on the way,
Since the issues facing China’s property sector exploded into mainstream view in 2021, it has been a rollercoaster ride of different perspectives and scenarios on how it will all play out. While the issues faced the Chinese economy have now faded from the headlines, the reality is the risks within the Chinese economy remain significant,
I don’t think gender is relevant to stupidity, but The Australian does. They are the three women steering the nation’s economic course, a triumvirate of power not afraid to push back and make tough decisions. …On Tuesday, Treasury secretary Jenny Wilkinson attended her first RBA board meeting, replacing former secretary Steven Kennedy and shifting the
Card-carrying China groveler Geoff Raby is like a weathervane of Chinese influence in Australia. His return to the AFR tells us that his tailwind is growing, as we have seen around Albo’s China pivot, and it is safe to re-emerge and argue for a further selling out to Beijing. He doesn’t have much to say
When the Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe first began raising interest rates in May 2022, the question in the minds of many commentators and economists was, when will they be cut again? What followed was the largest and swiftest relative rise in interest rates in Australia’s history. But then the Reserve Bank did something that
With the release of the latest national accounts data, it was revealed that Australia’s GDP in per capita terms is once again contracting. Meanwhile, in headline GDP terms, the economy grew by 0.2%, surprising to the downside of the analyst consensus of growth of 0.4%. Australian GDP per capita has now contracted in 9 of