RBC is the most bearish LNG price forecaster I can find but that isn’t going to help Australia. Looking ahead, as we detailed in our LNG deep dive recently, we see a wave of new LNG supply—the biggest yet—to take global exports closer to 440mt (605bcm) in 2025, 480mt (660bcm) in 2026 and 620mt (855bcm)
The first battle between bond vigilantes and King Trump has gone to the former. Members of President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming economic team are discussing slowly ramping up tariffs month by month, a gradual approach aimed at boosting negotiating leverage while helping avoid a spike in inflation, according to people familiar with the matter. One idea involves
DXY took a breather last night. AUD reversed. CNY is hanging on. Oil fell. Base metals meh. Miners rose on a Pilbara cyclone. EM lol. Junk is stalled. US yields eased. Stocks were soft. AUD positioning continues to get shorter, which is opening the way for much bigger counter-trend rallies. It is the reverse for
Wall Street is again failing to find traction following last Friday night’s retracement with tech stocks again pulling the edifice down while European shares rebounded slightly despite the higher Euro. The USD is actually now losing ground against the undollars on a slightly weaker than expected PPI print overnight, particularly Euro and Pound Sterling but
Domain has published a stunning set of charts showing how Australian housing affordability is the worst on record by nearly every measure. First, the national dwelling value-to-income ratio hit an equal record high of 8.0 in the September quarter of 2024, up from a 20-year average of 6.7. Second, in the September quarter of 2024,
Asian stock markets are in the main doing a lot better in reaction to a somewhat mixed first session overnight on Wall Street as concerns over the incoming Trump tariffs waned. The USD is pulling back slightly against the undollars following an overreaction to Friday night’s NFP print with Euro heading back above the 1.02
The Market Ear tackles the bond back-up. Decouple Bond markets decoupled: Western yields are soaring, while China yields are collapsing. Source: Macrobond Odd UK 10Y at highest level since ‘08, US closing in on peak, EZ sideways, China decline ongoing. Source: Macrobond Not normal In previous Fed rate-cutting cycles, 10yr UST yields tended to rally
If you want to know why China is no longer able to stimulate its economy the way it once did via property and infrastructure, look no further than land sales, which are running at post-GFC levels. Worse, most sales are local governments selling to themselves via special purpose vehicles, the very definition of robbing Peter
Chinese December steel exports continued their strong run at 9.7mt, up 26% year on year, driven in part by tariff frontrunning. That paled next to iron ore imports, which went within a whisker of a record at 12.49mt. On the day, the import numbers were enough to excite markets, which lifted both steel and iron
Alas for Australia. Cheap gas everywhere and not a molecule to use. The local gas price is still at a nosebleed $13.50Gj. Enough to drive electricity prices 150% higher year on year. The culprit is more European gas shock as Russian tighten again. Goldman has more. While NW Europe January temperature forecasts have remained colder