You can’t keep a good Titanic up, and there’s no better example than Chinese property, which continues to sink despite Beijing’s next efforts. The price hole ripped into her side is still sucking in water. The iceberg of too high real interest rates is slowly melting, but why buy either of the below when you
China (31.5% in 2023) and India (8.1% share in 2023) are driving the growth in global carbon emissions. The reason is simple: both have an insatiable appetite for coal. The following chart from Oxford Economics on electricity generation sources tells the tale. While the developed world has weaned itself off coal over the past decade,
The Market Ear wraps us up. Fade the rip? “…one of our contrarian trading rules…when >88% of MSCI global stock indices trading above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages then you sell, and vice-versa; currently 84% of MSCI indices trading above 50dma/200dma”…global stock markets v close to “overbought”…good “fade-the-rip” reminder” (Hartnett) Teflon tech NASDAQ at
Steel is showing the tariff strain. We are entering the year’s weakest seasonal period so iron ore ought to follow. Chinese property is weak. Export volumes have held up. But is it all diversion. Sooner or later, the crashed prices needed to muscle into new markets will flow back up the supply chain. Steel demand
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) published data last month revealing that Victorians pay the highest state and local taxes in the country. Victorian state and local government taxes were $6,348 per capita in 2023-24, $654 (11.5%) higher than the state and territory average. Victoria also saw a 40.5% increase in state and local government
Risk markets seem to have concluded that the Trump Tariff Tax Trade Tiff is nearly over, and everything will go back to being normal, even though almost all the macroeconomic indicators suggest otherwise as the US economy slows down as stagflation rears its ugly head. The Trump regime ability to goose the stock market back
According to Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), Australian rental affordability has never been worse, with tenants required to sacrifice a record share of their income to rent the median home. This decline in affordability follows a circa 50% increase in asking rents since the pandemic. Last week, leading apartment developer Tim Gurner warned that Australia’s rental crisis
The construction sector has experienced the nation’s highest rate of insolvencies, with 2,795 firms failing this financial year, up 24% on 2024. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, construction sector insolvencies are tracking at around double the pre-pandemic norm: Mirvac CEO Campbell Hanan warned that the failure of around 7,000 builders and
DXY continues its rebound as the world restocks US assets. AUD is holding support. Lead boots too. Gold look very shaky. Thankfully, so does oil. Metals are nervous about growth. Miners meh. EM is shit. But non-China EM is worth a look. Junk’s got some spunk. Yields are a pest. Any higher and the rally
The latest data suggests that momentum in the housing market has softened as buyers await further interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). This week’s mortgage finance data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that the value of new housing lending declined by 1.6% in the March quarter, taking the annual