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Articles from MacroBusiness

Macro Morning

May 20, 2025 - 09:00 -- Admin

Uncertainty seems to be returning to risk markets if you look beyond the headline stock indices with the Moody rating cut still reverberating amid geopolitical concerns over Russia, Gaza and the impending hurt from the Trump tariffs. US sovereign debt concerns were on the mind of more than one overnight Fed speaker and while the

Buyers line up for Melbourne property

May 20, 2025 - 00:05 -- Admin

Melbourne’s housing market has experienced the lowest value growth since the beginning of the pandemic. Between March 2020 and April 2025, Melbourne dwelling values grew by 16.2%, versus 43.3% growth across the combined capital cities. As a result, Melbourne’s median dwelling value ($781,000) is the second cheapest out of the five major capital cities, just

Macro Afternoon

May 19, 2025 - 16:30 -- Admin

Risk markets in Asia are reacting with some trepidation after the Friday night cut by ratings agency Moody on US debt, with all stocks in the red with US Treasury futures also falling. This is all about the burgeoning fiscal deficit problem in the US Congress which is trying again to vote on the Trump

Green light for 0.25% rate cut

May 19, 2025 - 13:30 -- Admin

Gareth Aird, head of Australian economics at CBA, notes that markets have priced a 95% probability of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cutting the official cash rate by 0.25% at Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting. “Both the Q1 25 trimmed mean CPI and the Q1 25 wage price index printed right in line with the

Water is a vital part of population policy

May 19, 2025 - 13:00 -- Admin

Peter Cook, cross-posted from Pearls & Irritations. If ecological sustainability must be the basis for population policy, as argued by Jenny Goldie, then a vital ingredient for sustainability is water – the essence of life. If population policy requires identifying a desirable population size for Australia in the future, we must consider whether there will be enough

Chinese exports crater (sort of)

May 19, 2025 - 12:30 -- Admin

For a short while, anyway, Goldman. Both IMF and Elane (a Chinese shipping data company) provide vessel traffic data categorized by ship type. The IMF has developed a sophisticated algorithm to project export and import volume for major ports in China. While they generate daily series,the data is published weekly with a one-week lag. Elane

Productivity Commission undertakes unproductive inquiry

May 19, 2025 - 12:00 -- Admin

This comes straight from the annals of the Department of Redundancy Department. Via Bloomberg: Australia’s Productivity Commission has identified 15 priority reforms to examine in the course of five inquiries it’s conducting for the government to try to boost economic efficiency and raise living standards. The five inquiries being conducted are: Creating a dynamic and resilient economy

Chinese property keeps on sinking

May 19, 2025 - 11:30 -- Admin

You can’t keep a good Titanic up, and there’s no better example than Chinese property, which continues to sink despite Beijing’s next efforts. The price hole ripped into her side is still sucking in water. The iceberg of too high real interest rates is slowly melting, but why buy either of the below when you

China, India double-down on coal

May 19, 2025 - 11:00 -- Admin

China (31.5% in 2023) and India (8.1% share in 2023) are driving the growth in global carbon emissions. The reason is simple: both have an insatiable appetite for coal. The following chart from Oxford Economics on electricity generation sources tells the tale. While the developed world has weaned itself off coal over the past decade,

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