Macro Afternoon: 5 May 2025
AUD/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD Gold WTI Brent Australia 200 US S&P 500 UK 100 Japan 225
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Election post-mortem: Progressive Labor gives ignorant voters a second chance
By Stephen Saunders The sanctimonious left-elite is euphoric, confident that Labor is set to inflict six more years of population replacement, energy malfeasance, and housing distress. When Labor unaccountably lost Election 2019, inhouse reviewers Craig Emerson and Jay Weatherill summarised the problems in 500 words. The key message: “Labor should position itself as a party
Cautious Aussies choose saving over spending
The Q4 2024 national accounts reported that Australian real per capita household consumption had fallen for eight consecutive quarters: This decline in consumption was in response to an 8% decline in real per capita household disposable incomes: It was also in response to the recent surge in mortgage and rental payments: Westpac has released survey
Iron ore struggles on
The ferrous complex struggles on. Flat steel demand is solid. Long not so good . Production is OK. But the trade war is yet to fully strike, including direct tariffs upon steel, and the steel production cuts that come with both, Not out of the woods here yet.
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Canada reboots mass migration policy
Over the past decade, the Liberal government in Canada has run the nation’s biggest immigration program in history, which culminated in a record 1.2 million net migrants arriving in the 2023-24 financial year. This surge in population created a record shortfall of housing, as illustrated below: As a result, rental vacancy rates collapsed to record
International students ruthlessly exploit bridging visas
The Department of Home Affairs has released temporary visa data for Q1 2025, showing a record 2,541,651 temporary visas on issue in Australia (excluding visitors). This figure was around 120,000 higher than the year prior and about 580,000 higher than Q1 2020, before the pandemic. As illustrated below, the surge in temporary visas since Q1
Albo must immediately save the energy superidiot
If Albo’s idiots have any brains at all, they will immediately spend their Trump windfall of political capital on embracing Peter Dutton’s gas reservation policies. Returning Australian gas to eastern states’ use is essential to stabilising inflation, the energy transition, and industrial growth, all KPIs for the renewed government. In the meantime, there is potentially
Trump hands Australia its worst modern government
The Albanese government was the worst government in modern Australian history. It is a: routine liar political hack over national interest policymaker housing calamity energy price catastrophe industrial horror story budget wrecker wages killer living standards destroyer immigration obsessive China groveller. The nation just handed this black hole government the largest blank cheque anybody can
Aussie landlords gain from renters’ pain
The latest rental affordability report from PropTrack revealed that at the end of 2024, Australian households could afford to rent the smallest share of advertised rentals since at least 2008, when records began. The primary cause of the collapse in rental affordability is the extreme growth of rents, which have risen by 48% nationally since
The short squeeze rips
The Market Ear on the short squeeze. Most since August S&P 500 +18% from the lows 4 weeks ago. More than 88% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 20 day moving average, the most since August. However, many sentiment & positioning indicators are still massively lagging, which would indicate room for more buying.