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MacroBusiness Wednesday, January 29, 2025 - 10:30 Source

The Market Ear on the Deepseek effect. Just fine Other than the impact of the largest US stock nearly entering a bear market in one day, plus some collateral damage in other large stocks, the broader market held up just fine. The S&P 500 fell less than 1.5%, the Dow rose 0.7%, and the CBOE

The post Deepseek might creatively destroy Australia appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, January 29, 2025 - 10:00 Source

I’m not sure where the rebar rally is coming from. There’s nothing much going on for demand. Perhaps it is the very weak seasonal restock. The Steel PMI ain’t it. Markets are very short ferrous so maybe that’s it. The outlook for rebar is terrible as China goes off the completions cliff, but perhaps steel

The post Iron ore weathers mounting headwinds appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Wednesday, January 29, 2025 - 09:59 Source

The hype around Artificial Intelligence, the now failed U.S. attempt to monopolize it, and the recent counter from China are a lesson in how to innovate. They also show that the U.S. is losing the capability to do so.

In mid 2023, when the Artificial Intelligence hype gained headlines, I [MOON OF ALABAMA] wrote:

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Cheeseburger Gothic Wednesday, January 29, 2025 - 09:57 Source

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Renew Economy Wednesday, January 29, 2025 - 09:45 Source
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Renew Economy Wednesday, January 29, 2025 - 09:31 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, January 29, 2025 - 09:30 Source

I’m assuming most readers are at least somewhat aware of DeepSeek over the past week, which culminated in a large sell-off in AI stocks on Monday. I thought it worth putting down some thoughts about where this may go. Quick background A small Chinese company, DeepSeek, released a large language model that matches or betters

The post Some DeepSeek thoughts appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Wednesday, January 29, 2025 - 09:00 Source

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, January 29, 2025 - 09:00 Source

Wall Street rebounded overnight from its Deepseek AI start of week dramas with tech stocks rebounding while other industrials were largely unchanged as they absorbed the latest macroeconomic news in the US and await the next FOMC meeting. FX markets were largely unmoved as well, absorbing the post weekend volatility and even more Trump Tariff

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, January 29, 2025 - 07:27 Source
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Your Democracy Wednesday, January 29, 2025 - 07:17 Source

BEFORE GOING TO A VERY SLANTED/BIASED/ERRONEOUS ARTICLE FROM THE ABC IN REGARD TO YUCKRAINE, WE NEED TO STATE:

MAKE A DEAL PRONTO BEFORE THE SHIT HITS THE FAN:

NO NATO IN "UKRAINE" (WHAT'S LEFT OF IT)

THE DONBASS REPUBLICS ARE NOW BACK IN THE RUSSIAN FOLD — AS THEY USED TO BE PRIOR 1922. THE RUSSIANS WON'T ABANDON THESE AGAIN.

THESE WILL ALSO INCLUDE ODESSA, KHERSON AND KHARKIV.....

CRIMEA IS RUSSIAN — AS IT USED TO BE PRIOR 1954

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, January 29, 2025 - 06:59 Source

Already? DXY is back. AUD flamed out. Auld lead boots is back. Commods got tariffed. Miners ouch. EM so yetserday. Junk trying to throw some fuel on risk. As yields ease. Stocks rebounded. It’s hard to see how much further a DXY correction can get when El Trumpo fires off daily tariff warnings. Credit Agricole

The post Australian dollar rally cooked already? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, January 29, 2025 - 00:10 Source

Domain published the following chart showing how Melbourne house values have risen far quicker than unit values. “A typical house in Melbourne cost buyers 51.1% – or $310,202 – more than a unit in December 2024, according to CoreLogic data”, the article reads. “That has more than doubled since December 2014, when the gap was

The post A house and backyard become distant dreams appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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THE BLOT REPORT Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 23:42 Source

Back when I was at university studying palaeontology, while quaffing our numerous cups of coffee during the day, I and a colleague used to muse about the ideal palaeontological job we wanted, and it usually came down to working at the Bureau of Mineral Resources, Geology and Geophysics (BMR) in Canberra. We didn’t think it would ever happen, and that we would initially be the most highly qualified ‘check-out chicks’ in a local supermarket.

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Your Democracy Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 19:14 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 18:30 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 18:24 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 17:26 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 17:00 Source

Asian stock markets are having a hard time swallowing the volatility around the overnight moves on Wall Street due to the Deepseek AI problems, while equally swallowing the Deep Suck coming out of the White House around more tariffs. The USD was pushed significantly higher after several sessions of weakness with the Australian dollar breaking

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 15:45 Source

German opposition leader Friedrich Merz has floated proposing legislation to tighten Germany's border controls, and claimed it would be on the SPD and Greens if he had to pass it with votes from the far-right AfD.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 15:13 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 14:47 Source
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Your Democracy Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 14:37 Source

Moscow is open to dialogue with the new US administration but no contact has been established yet, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov has stated.

Speaking to journalists on Monday, Ryabkov said that a phone call between the two countries’ presidents is not being planned while there is no agreement or understanding on the matter. All contacts are currently being carried out at the embassy level, he noted.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 14:30 Source
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Your Democracy Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 14:15 Source

British ships spent several days tracking down a suspected Russian stealth submarine before concluding the suspicious sonar signature may have actually belonged to a farting whale, a Royal Navy source has told The Sun.

Two mystery sounds were picked up off the northwestern coast of Scotland, between Applecross and the Isle of Raasay, according to the UK tabloid. Convinced they were man-made, the Royal Navy went on a deep-sea hunt.

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Club Troppo Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 13:49 Source

As part of a new policy, I’m going to post stuff I’ve published on my substack here where it’s substantial enough, or where I want to be able to link to it without the distraction of all the other stuff I pack into my weekly substack digest.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 13:00 Source

So says Bernstein. Did DeepSeek really “build OpenAI for $5M? There are actually two model families in discussion. The first family is DeepSeek-V3, a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) large language model which, through a number of optimizations and clever techniques can provide similar or better performance vs other large foundational models but requires a small fraction of the

The post Deepseek. Don’t panic! appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 12:30 Source

Westpac with the note. The Westpac Card Tracker Index* has come off a volatile Christmas-New Year period, retracing 4.5pts over the last two weeks to 137.8. The latest Index read is now slightly below the Dec month average (noting that all figures are adjusted for regular seasonal fluctuations). Underlying momentum has remained steady but unspectacular through the

The post Consumer fades appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 12:26 Source
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MacroBusiness Tuesday, January 28, 2025 - 12:00 Source

MB has a love-hate relationship with The Australian’s Judith Sloan. The hate is usually about gas. I’m sure I’m not the only one who thinks it’s passing strange – more than passing strange – that Australia is about to become an importer of liquefied natural gas as well as an exporter. …How did this bizarre

The post Who is to blame for the East Coast gas cartel? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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