Blogotariat

Victoria’s budget finances are in disarray, with the state carrying the nation’s highest debt and lowest credit rating. According to the latest state budget, Victoria’s net debt will rise to $194 billion by 2028-29, from $155.5 billion currently. Victorian net debt per capita is the highest in the nation. In 2023-24, Victoria’s per capita net

The post Victorian government taxes economy into oblivion appeared first on MacroBusiness.

The machines are running out of volatility to bid. The Market Ear. Biggest volatility crash in history* “The 63% decline in the VIX over the last 9 weeks is the biggest volatility crash in history.” (Bilello) The spring 2020 post-COVID crash was the largest one prior to this (at 58%).*note that we are talking about a

The post Stocks re-enter the old world order appeared first on MacroBusiness.

The ferrous complex is nothing flash, that’s for sure. But tariffs are yet to show much in its steel exports. These are absorbing an extra 100mt of iron ore from the COVID lows. Iron ore imports are lacklustre but not collapsing. I expect more downside ahead as construction continues to shrink, but unless Beijing acts

The post China spews steel everywhere appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Melbourne’s population was about 3.5 million people at the turn of the century. It took 165 years for Melbourne to grow to this size in the year 2000. Fast forward to 2025, and Melbourne’s population is nearing 5.5 million. That’s almost a 2 million population increase in less than a quarter of a century. Liveability

The post The deliberate destruction of Melbourne appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Falling living standards is what he promised, and he’s not going to spend his political capital on anything else! AFR. Anthony Albanese is hosing down expectations his government is about to embark on a bold new agenda just because it has a commanding majority, saying it must first deliver on what it has already promised

The post Albo to deliver his promise of falling living standards appeared first on MacroBusiness.

DXY can’t get off its knees. It’s not an AUD rocket so much as a tractor slogging it uphill. The big short is excellent support. Lead boots OK too. Machines are into oil. Metals no bueno. Fugly miners. EM thinks it can. Junk funk. Yields sticky. Stocks only go up. Nothing much has changed. The

The post Australian dollar tractor at new highs appeared first on MacroBusiness.

The first session following the release of the latest monthly US jobs print is usually benign and that’s what we had across most risk markets overnight as speculation about what the Federal Reserve will do until the next NFP print calmed down, sending the USD slightly lower against the majors. Uncertainty over trade deals kept

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

According to the OECD, Australia has the smallest manufacturing sector relative to its economy in the developed world. As a result, Australia is also the least self-sufficient economy in the developed world. The latest Harvard Atlas of Economic Complexity, which measures the diversity and knowledge intensity of a country’s export mix, ranked Australia 102nd out of

The post Australia is a manufacturing wasteland appeared first on MacroBusiness.

All one really needs to be seen to be smart is Australia’s is to be loudest. That is the repuation at RBA press conferences of Warren Hogan, bullhawk and bullhorn. He has been Australia’s loudest and most persistent bullhawk. Until now. …at the heart of our productivity problem is a collapse in the efficiency of

The post The great bullhawk crash lands on emergency rate cuts appeared first on MacroBusiness.

The Albanese government has engaged in a full-court press of housing disinformation. Last week, Labor’s new Productivity Minister Andrew Leigh wrote the following spin in The AFR: “The federal government is doing our part. Through the National Housing Accord, we’re working with the states and territories to build 1.2 million homes over five years. We’ve

The post Australians are being lied to on housing appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Ian Leslie has released what looks to be a fascinating book about the Beatles and more specifically the relationship between Lennon and McCartney. I thought that I too might as well get in on the act and talk about the Beatles story and why it is so remarkable, mysterious and compelling.

DXY held on Friday night. AUD could not break higher. Lead boots still plodding upwards. Gold sagged. Oil bounce looks technical to me. Metals no bueno. Big bear rolls on. EM maybe. Junk meh. Yields up. Stocks upper. The US jobs report was a Goldilocks scenario, so it did not change the trends. Total nonfarm

The post Australian dollar Goldilocks appeared first on MacroBusiness.

While my focus has been very much on the federal election, events have been developing in Tasmania, which culminated in a vote of no confidence on Thursday.

The premier, Jeremy Rockliff, has plans to visit the Governor on Tuesday to ask for an early election. At the moment it doesn’t seem likely that anyone else could command the support of the House of Assembly, but it is possible the Governor may decide to not grant an election right away in the hope of finding a way to continue with a parliament that is not yet 15 months old.

If an early election is called, the earliest possible date is July 19.