Blogotariat

THERE IS AN OUTFIT WEBSITE — WE SUSPECT LOVED BY THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION — THAT CLAIMS TO BE A JOURNALISTIC FACT-CHECKER. IT'S CALLED POYNTER, WITH VARIOUS BRANCHES, INCLUDING POLITIFACT... AS WE KNOW, NOTHING IS EVER CERTAIN AND DEPENDING ON THE SOURCE OF INFORMATION, FACTS ARE RARELY CERTAIN TO VARIOUS DEGREE. "FACTS" COMING FROM THE US ADMINISTRATION ARE RARELY TRUE — BUT POYNTER AND ITS CABALEERS BELIEVE THESE "FACTS" BECAUSE THEY ARE FED BY OFFICIAL SOURCES...

Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) data shows that nearly 3,000 construction companies failed in the 2023-24 financial year. The trend has continued into this financial year, with 415 construction sector insolvencies recorded from the start of July to 11 August: As shown above, there were 328 construction insolvencies in July, up from 295 recorded

Gareth Aird at the CBA with a fine piece. Basically, the RBA has no credibility left. Recent RBA forward guidance at odds with RBA review into forward guidance Forward guidance first appeared in the Governor’s August press conference Until recently the RBA’s communication strategy under Governor Bullock was not to provide forward guidance. Indeed a

The post Why nobody believes in the hawkish RBA appeared first on MacroBusiness.

The past few weeks have seen much hand-wringing and scaremongering about Australia’s unseasonably warm end to winter (see the example below). Melbourne’s unseasonably warm weather has meant that our household hasn’t run the heater for at least two weeks, saving us lots of money (given obscene gas prices) and reducing carbon emissions. The most sensible

Fyodor Lukyanov: The arrest of Durov isn’t just about TelegramBig changes are coming to the global information sphere, and the Telegram founder’s standing is a canary in the coal mine

Justin Fabo at Antipodean Macro has published charts on wage growth on Enterprise Bargaining Agreements (EBAs). The following chart from Fabo shows that “Average annualised wages growth in federal enterprise bargaining agreements (EBAs) lodged for approval with Australia’s Fair Work Commission was was 3.5% in the 4 weeks to 26 July”: More interestingly, union negotiated

The post It pays to be in a union in Australia appeared first on MacroBusiness.

It seems less and less likely an energy only market is the right design for a heavily renewables grid.

The Market Ear on familiar territory. Soggy China CSI 300 not far from panic lows we saw earlier this year. The gap vs SPX is beyond extreme… Source: Refinitiv Chinese speculation ChiNext is the home to fast money. Both the ChiNext and China margin trading debt charts are having problems finding “bids”… Source: Refinitiv That

The post China sinks from sight appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Qingdao iron ore is ignoring the fireworks in futures, barely up at $93.03. SHFE and SGX futures are bouncing together but steel mill profitability is getting worse, not better: Dalian is unhinged as usual: Not so much for coking coal: CISA output went from bad to worse in mid-August and inventory rose 4% anyway: With

The post Iron ore price commits elaborate suicide appeared first on MacroBusiness.

Overnight saw more wobbles on equity markets as bond markets led the risk charge, notably European fixed income on the back of the French political imbroglio and US 2 year Treasuries in the wake of the latest US consumer confidence figures. The USD retreated against the majors, with most returning to last Friday’s strong post

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

The August Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) showed that advertised rental growth is finally falling, but remains at an elevated level historically: Westpac senior economist Justin Smirk warns that rents as measured in the CPI will remain a significant ‘thorn in the side’ of the RBA into 2025,

The post Rents continue to drive up inflation appeared first on MacroBusiness.

DXY is still hugging support: AUD wants to go higher: North Asia too: The golden rocket! Full metals reflation: Miners not so much: EM poor effort: Junk still bullish: Yields are paused: Stocks too: DXY is majorly overbought so some pullback is in order: EUR has overshot too: But there is still room for DXY

The post Australian dollar golden rocket appeared first on MacroBusiness.