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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 12:30 Source

Some nice new charts from IEEFA on the great gas gouge. It’s China that’s sucking the life out of the East Coast economy. Of course, China sends the gas back elaborately transformed into battleships. But somehow that doesn’t seem like a good exchange. There’s loads of uncontracted gas to deploy the Dutton reservation policy (and

The post It’s China that’s killing East Coast energy appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 12:00 Source

Harry Ottley, economist at CBA, has written an excellent report on the Q1 2025 Labour Account from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), which illustates the extraordinary growth in non-market (government-aligned) jobs. The following chart from Ottley shows that over the past decade, the growth in non-market jobs has trended higher: The non-market sector has

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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 11:41 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 11:30 Source

The Market Ear on rising stress. You know things are stressed in geopolitics… …when the latest VIX pop looks tiny compared to oil “VIX”, the OVX. Source: LSEG Workspace Well bid downside Skew continues moving higher, trading at the highest levels since the early April panic. The gap between SDEX and VIX is very wide

The post Stock stress builds appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 11:05 Source

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has declared war on Australia’s poor productivity growth, which has slumped to developed-world lows. Chalmers has finally cottoned on to the fact that the economy’s stagnant productivity will not deliver higher living standards for ordinary Australians. In a speech to be delivered to the National Press Club in Canberra, The AFR reports

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 11:01 Source

Westpac with the note. The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac– Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, dropped to –0.08% in May from 0.19% in April. The growth pulse has shown a significant deterioration since February, with May

The post Leading index sinks below the waves appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 10:30 Source

The ~$95 support line gave way yesterday. Goldman has more. Steel: The lingering and hindering steel production cut Orderbooks trend- The forward order books of most steel mills were down MoM in June, in line with seasonality. High-frequency weekly data suggests current steel demand declined by 4.0% yoy for construction steel and down 6.0% yoy

The post Iron ore cracks appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 10:20 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 10:00 Source

Westpac’s latest consumer sentiment survey suggested that Australians have turned bullish on housing. As illustrated below by AMP chief economist Shane Oliver, house price expectations hit a cyclical high in May. The “time to buy a dwelling” sub-index has also bounced: The rebound in sentiment and house price expectations is understandable given that the Reserve

The post First home buyers are ready to pile in appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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xkcd.com Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 10:00 Source

Numbers can be tricky. On the day of my 110th birthday, I'll be one day younger than John Tukey was on his.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 09:49 Source
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Cheeseburger Gothic Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 09:45 Source

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 09:30 Source

DXY is stirring as Trump turns neocon. AUD slumped on WWIII. Lead boots are rock solid. Oil is still not overly worried. Metals nervy. Big miners are in the bear market of a lifetime. EM stocks puke. Junk OK. The ‘ol safe haven is back. As stocks stumble. The whole damn world is short DXY

The post Australian dollar slumps on WWIII appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Tally Room Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 09:15 Source

Last week I wrote about the dilemma of how to estimate a two-party-preferred vote in Bradfield. An actual two-party-preferred count has not been conducted between Liberal and Labor in that seat, and may not be conducted for some time. At the time I attempted to assess the likely two-party-preferred vote, but I expected that a more accurate calculation could be done once the distribution of preferences (including the three-candidate-preferred count) was published.

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Renew Economy Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 08:32 Source
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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 08:00 Source

The past month has exposed the fallacy of the Albanese government’s target to build 1.2 million homes over five years, which commenced on 1 July 2024. The federal government’s own advisory body, the National Housing Supply and Affordability Council (NHSAC), forecast that only 938,000 dwellings will be built nationwide by mid-2029, 262,000 below the target.

The post Australia is living in housing fantasy land appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Your Democracy Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 07:21 Source

This is as serious as it gets. Let’s survey the chessboard - from micro to macro.

The crying shadow in the funeral dance,

The loud lament of the disconsolate chimera.

T. S. Eliot, Burnt Norton

 

Iran Now First Line of Defense of BRICS and the Global South

BY PEPE ESCOBAR

 

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Your Democracy Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 05:55 Source

Yesterday’s statement by Defence Minister Richard Marles that Australia’s geography and continent would be crucial to any United States prosecution of a war against China will go down as a dark moment in Australia’s history.

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MacroBusiness Wednesday, June 18, 2025 - 00:05 Source

Australia’s manufacturing sector hit a record low share of GDP in the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) national accounts. In Q1 2025, the manufacturing share of GDP fell to just 5.1%, down from 8.9% two decades ago and from 15% in the mid-1970s. Australia’s manufacturing share is also the smallest in the OECD, making

The post Why Australian manufacturing has no future appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, June 17, 2025 - 20:04 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, June 17, 2025 - 19:31 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, June 17, 2025 - 19:29 Source
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Your Democracy Tuesday, June 17, 2025 - 17:44 Source

Well, Ukraine launched one of the most powerful attacks against Russia since 2022. On the first day of the month, five Russian military bases were hit by drones infiltrated into Russian territory and remotely operated. They allegedly disabled 40 fighter jets.

 

Prod the bear with a short stick… and then scream for help and jump into daddy’s lap!

    BY Eduardo VASCO

 

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Your Democracy Tuesday, June 17, 2025 - 17:08 Source

The leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) expressed support for Israel's security in a joint statement amid the escalation with Iran, pointing to the importance of de-escalation in the region.

"We affirm that Israel has a right to defend itself. We reiterate our support for the security of Israel," the statement says. "We urge that the resolution of the Iranian crisis leads to a broader de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, including a ceasefire in Gaza."

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 17, 2025 - 16:30 Source

The Israel-Iran war continues to dominate risk markets as Trump runs away from the G7 meeting tweeting out incoherent threats and deals while further strikes against oil tankers and other targets show the conflict spreading. The USD remains somewhat weak although Yen took a small back seat on today’s BOJ meeting with a taper plan

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Tuesday, June 17, 2025 - 15:12 Source

Snowy Hydro Tumut 3 pumped power station energy storage - M Mazengarb - optimised

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Renew Economy Tuesday, June 17, 2025 - 15:04 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, June 17, 2025 - 14:21 Source
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Renew Economy Tuesday, June 17, 2025 - 14:14 Source

Ace Power narrogin solar and bess

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, June 17, 2025 - 14:00 Source

New Zealand’s economy is a basket case. Consider the following data points, many of which come from Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro. The following chart of national accounts data to Q4 2024 shows that New Zealand has experienced a sharp decline in GDP and national income. More recent data suggests that the economy remains moribund.

The post New Zealand is an ‘economic basket case’ appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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