John Quiggin
Monday, September 15, 2025 - 12:43
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Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please. I’m now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow me on Mastodon here. |
Renew Economy
Monday, September 15, 2025 - 12:23
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MacroBusiness
Monday, September 15, 2025 - 12:00
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The latest benchmark revision from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, covering data up to March of this year, revealed that the U.S. economy created 911,000 fewer jobs than initially measured. While a downward revision was widely tipped by analysts, with the consensus estimate of 600,000 fewer jobs being created, the actual figure surprised significantly The post Is Trump’s America heading for recession? appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
“Remarkable:” Record day of wind and solar curtailment as renewables surge and rooftop PV holds sway |
MacroBusiness
Monday, September 15, 2025 - 11:30
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Shortly before Britain went to the polls for the 2010 General Election, then Opposition Leader David Cameron released the Conservative Party’s manifesto, pledging to cut net migration into the U.K. from 200,000 people per year to “tens of thousands of people per year”. At the time, polling showed that immigration was the second most important The post Britain’s migration consensus crushed appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
THE BLOT REPORT
Monday, September 15, 2025 - 11:10
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MacroBusiness
Monday, September 15, 2025 - 11:00
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Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) last week showed that the combined recurrent spending of the federal and state governments rose by 7.7% in 2024-25, to $1.02 trillion. In contrast, government revenue increased by just 4% during the financial year. The increase in recurrent spending was driven by a number of factors. |
THE BLOT REPORT
Monday, September 15, 2025 - 10:33
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As a beverage, coffee has been popular for a long time, with the discovery of the stimulant effect of the plant in Ethiopia early in the 14th century or thereabout, its cultivation in the 15th century in the Arabian Peninsula, from where it spread throughout Europe in the 16th and 17th centuries1. |
MacroBusiness
Monday, September 15, 2025 - 10:30
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The latest polling shows that support for the Susan Ley-led Coalition has collapsed. Newspoll shows that the Coalition’s primary vote has bombed to just 27%, well below Labor’s 36%. This marked the worst primary vote in Newspoll history. The Coalition’s two-party preferred vote has also plummeted to just 42%, down significantly from the 44.8% two-party The post The Coalition will not succeed by being Labor-lite appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
MacroBusiness
Monday, September 15, 2025 - 10:00
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Australia already had the highest concentration of international students in the world before the pandemic hit. As illustrated below by Salvator Babones, an Associate Professor at Sydney University, Australia had more than twice as many international students as the United Kingdom as a share of its population and roughly three times as many as Canada |
xkcd.com
Monday, September 15, 2025 - 10:00
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MacroBusiness
Monday, September 15, 2025 - 09:30
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I have remarked many times how strange liquidity-fed markets have become. Iron ore is no exception. The anti-involution rally appears to have topped out with the opposite outcome of that intended. Steel prices have fallen while input prices have risen, killing profitability. That will only produce more deflation over the stretch as squashed margins meet The post Iron ore at the threshold of a new era appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
MacroBusiness
Monday, September 15, 2025 - 09:00
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From the Market Ear: Comfortably numb The S&P 500 officially hits 6,600 for the first time in history, now up +36% since its April 2025 bottom. Nasdaq is up ~50% off the April lows. This marks one of the best 5-month stock market rallies in US history. At the same time the exuberant sentiment that The post Stock valuations uncomfortably numb appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
Your Democracy
Monday, September 15, 2025 - 08:36
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THE ASSASSINATION OF CHARLIE KIRK MAY NOT CHANGE THE COURSE OF HISTORY, BUT UNLIKE THE MURDERS OF JFK, MLK AND OTHER POLITICIANS VYING FOR POWER, IT HAS IMPACTED THE WHOLE OF AMERICA, WITH A SINGLE BULLET TO AN AVERAGE SPRUIKER. |
MacroBusiness
Monday, September 15, 2025 - 08:00
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This month’s Australian Financial Review property summit contained the usual bluster on the need to lift Australia’s housing supply to meet demand. NSW planning minister Paul Scully accused anti-development residents in wealthy suburbs of NIMBYism and trying to lock future generations out of housing. Mike Zorbas, chief executive of the Property Council of Australia, heaped The post More bad news for Australian renters appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
Renew Economy
Monday, September 15, 2025 - 07:56
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Your Democracy
Monday, September 15, 2025 - 05:55
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It seems likely that our prime minister will meet Donald Trump at the United Nations General Assembly later this month. AUKUS submarines will cost five times the entire annual defence budget. We can’t fund both AUKUS and a self reliant defence capability. We must choose self reliance.
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Your Democracy
Monday, September 15, 2025 - 05:05
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The president of the UN General Assembly, Annalena Baerbock, has said she could imagine UN peacekeeping forces being deployed to Ukraine to secure a ceasefire and postwar peace if supported by the majority of UN states. |
Your Democracy
Monday, September 15, 2025 - 04:44
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Killing the Hamas leaders in Qatar would clear the way to ending the Gaza conflict and the return of Israeli hostages, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Saturday, just days after the Jewish state bombed the militant group’s top members in Doha. Hamas has said that its leadership was not taken out by the Israeli attack, which it described as an attempt to assassinate negotiators working on a potential settlement to the Gaza conflict. |
MacroBusiness
Monday, September 15, 2025 - 00:05
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When the Morrison government handed down the 2022-23 federal budget in late March 2022, shortly before that year’s federal election campaign kicked off, it was projected that net overseas migration for the full 2021-22 financial year would be 41,000. With only a little over 3 months remaining in that financial year at the time, it The post Australians pay for Treasury’s astronomical forecasting failure appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
Renew Economy
Sunday, September 14, 2025 - 23:59
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Your Democracy
Sunday, September 14, 2025 - 18:31
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The Government has just announced a spend of $1.7B on new ‘Ghost Shark’ underwater drones. But there appears to be more stealth in the budget than there is in the capability. Former submariner Rex Patrick reports. Pete Quinn must be pretty happy.
Ghost Shark drones – “music to Trump’s ears” by Rex Patrick |
THE BLOT REPORT
Sunday, September 14, 2025 - 16:36
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In June, I wrote a piece which suggested that when Trump sent in the National Guard to Los Angeles, he was hoping that violence would flare up, so that he could use it much as the nazis used the Reichstag Fire in February, 1933. The Nazis used this as an excuse to issue the Reichstag Fire Decree to suspend the right to assembly, freedom of speech, freedom of the press, and other constitutional protections, including all restraints on police investigations. The decree permitted the regime to arrest and incarcerate political opponents without specific charge, to dissolve political organisations, and to confiscate private property. |
MacroBusiness
Sunday, September 14, 2025 - 14:00
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By Lucinda Jerogin, Associate Economist at CBA The CommBank Household Spending Insights index recorded its sixth consecutive month of gains, lifting by 0.3% in August to be 5.0% higher annually. Business survey data reinforced our view that the Australian economy is recovering. Consumer sentiment was weaker in September after a strong result in August. Offshore, The post The economic week ahead appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
MacroBusiness
Sunday, September 14, 2025 - 10:21
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Leading Sydney auctioneer and agent Tom Panos has issued a warning for Australian home buyers. Panos believes that Australia’s property market is the hottest it has been since the Covid boom and will only get worse once the Albanese government’s 5% deposit scheme for first home buyers comes into effect next month. In his weekly The post Insider: “Hot” property market will “only get worse for buyers” appeared first on MacroBusiness. |
Your Democracy
Sunday, September 14, 2025 - 05:55
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Several days after its absurd endorsement of renaming the Department of Defense to the Department of War and calling for a more aggressive posture against Russia’s war with Ukraine, the Washington Post stated that signing a follow-on to the New START Treaty was “reckless.” New START is actually the last remaining nuclear arms-control treaty between the United State and Russia and it is due to expire in February 2026.
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Your Democracy
Sunday, September 14, 2025 - 05:00
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Your Democracy
Sunday, September 14, 2025 - 04:44
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We’ll look back on 2024 as the year we sailed passed 1.5. Marine heatwaves in 2024 and 2025 seriously damaged the Great Barrier Reef, again. Insufficient land and money to create enough new forests to offset carbon emissions. Iceland sends a letter to the future. We’re getting hotter faster and are already past 1.5oC
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The Tally Room
Saturday, September 13, 2025 - 18:00
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6:00 – Polls have just closed in the Kiama by-election. This state seat is on the south coast of New South Wales, and was vacated by Gareth Ward shortly before he was expected to be expelled from the Legislative Assembly after his conviction and expected sentencing. Results should start to come in before 7pm tonight. I’ll be live-blogging here. In the meantime, you can read my guide to the by-election here. |
Your Democracy
Saturday, September 13, 2025 - 17:29
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Prince Harry has made a surprise visit to Kyiv at the invitation of the Ukrainian government, saying he wants to do "everything possible" to support the recovery of thousands of servicemen seriously injured in the war. |