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The Australian Independent Media Network Monday, January 7, 2019 - 18:59 Source

“I think this is the start of something bigger. The revolution will eventually start.” Fraser Anning at extremist rally in St Kilda. Good ole Fraser! You remember how he used the phrase “final solution” in his maiden speech? According to him, he didn’t know that it had been used before by Hitler and his mates.…

The post Fraser Anning Didn’t Realise That Nazis Were Racist! appeared first on The AIM Network.

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Club Troppo Monday, January 7, 2019 - 18:50 Source

In the context of my writing about public goods, John Burnheim sent me the email below. (Note his use of the word ‘comedy is intended as Dante meant it – as a story where things turn out in the end).

The park in question is the wonderful park in which I walk every day, stretching for about three kilometres from the complex of apartments in which we live on the corner so Pyrmont Bridge Road and Booth Street down to Rozelle Bay and on to the Fish Market, It is full of glorious trees and lawns and a variety of facilities. It is bordered by High-density residential buildings and well used by a variety of people and pets.

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MacroBusiness Monday, January 7, 2019 - 16:52 Source

A strong start to the week here in Asia in reaction first to Friday’s US unemployment print but then Chinese stimulatory support and the lower volatility on currency markets. Risk proxies like the Aussie and Kiwi are up despite the fall in the USDJPY pair, while Chinese equity markets advanced but not as strong as others,

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, January 7, 2019 - 13:30 Source

The AUD is still pointing risk higher: Aussie bonds have been hosed at the long end, representing a great entry opportunity: Stocks have a neat little inverse head and shoulder pattern: Dalian is soft: Big Iron is running as it mistakes restocking for a new round of Chinese stimulus: Big Gas is up too. I’m

The post Bear market rally warms up appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, January 7, 2019 - 13:00 Source

by Chris Becker Moody’s are out with their suburban forecasts for Melbourne, pipping another 6% fall across the city and even double digit negative growth in certain areas: Australia’s Ongoing Housing Correction, Based on the CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics Australian Home Value Index Forecast Moody’s Analytics forecasts that the Australia’s housing market will continue to correct in 2019, after

The post Moody’s adds to the Melbourne property gloom appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, January 7, 2019 - 12:30 Source

by Chris Becker At the end of March this year, or in less than 90 days, the UK is set to leave the European Union. The EU and UK’s Prime Minister Theresa May have struck a deal, but it needs to be voted on in Parliament before such a deal is ratified. The exit from

The post Blame Brexit on the Euro appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, January 7, 2019 - 12:30 Source

by Chris Becker It’s the official start to the New Year after the two week break and of course, all the economists are out with their *predictions (YMMV) about the direction of the Aussie dollar. To wit, ABC: Citi’s Paul Brennan described the bank’s forecasts for the end of 2019 as “not particularly exciting, with

The post Australian dollar is a loser appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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John Quiggin Monday, January 7, 2019 - 12:10 Source

Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please. If you would like to receive my (hopefully) regular email news, please sign up using the following link

http://eepurl.com/dAv6sX You can also follow me on Twitter @JohnQuiggin, at my Facebook public page   and at my Economics in Two Lessons page

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MacroBusiness Monday, January 7, 2019 - 12:00 Source

Remember this rubbish from last year? According to Business Insider, mining wages were “soaring” once more in Western Australia as the state experiences another commodity boom: …within the broader macro picture, there are pockets of good news. Among them is a mini-resurgence in Australia’s mining sector. Research from NAB this week shows activity levels are rising, for

The post Turns out, mining wages aren’t “soaring” at all appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, January 7, 2019 - 11:30 Source

Via the AFR today: On Thursday, Canada said that 13 of its citizens have been detained in China since Meng’s arrest. She is accused of breaking US law, and Canada has an extradition treaty with the United States (but not China, though the Trudeau government has toyed with the idea). As punishment for following its

The post Straya sells out Canada in suicidal kowtowing appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, January 7, 2019 - 11:00 Source

Via Bloomie: The U.S. dollar may be poised to decline, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday boosted the chances that the central bank will pause interest-rate increases, strategists at Goldman wrote in a note Saturday. Powell cited the events of 2016, when rates were kept unchanged through

The post Sell gold! Or why the US dollar is not going to weaken appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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xkcd.com Monday, January 7, 2019 - 11:00 Source

It has so many advantages--it preserves Martian life, requires fewer interplanetary launches, and makes it much easier to field-test Mars rovers.

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MacroBusiness Monday, January 7, 2019 - 10:30 Source

Via the AFR: Gas producers are privately voicing reservations about proposals that would require them to report on sales contracts, reserves and export prices, worried that the measures intended to increase transparency in the under-pressure east coast market could put them at a commercial disadvantage. The recommendations, released by the national competition regulator and the

The post Gas cartel horrified by transparency appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, January 7, 2019 - 10:00 Source

Via The Australian: Shifting his focus from Bill Shorten’s proposal to limit negative gearing to new dwellings and the “retiree tax”, the Treasurer yesterday cited government analysis that showed Australians would be taxed up to 36.75 per cent on their capital gains under Labor’s policy, up from 23.5 per cent now. By comparison, US taxpayers

The post Bowen lashes L-plate Treasurer’s property giveaways appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, January 7, 2019 - 09:30 Source

Via the AFR: About 900,000 loans – or about one in six mortgages based on the nation’s $1.7 trillion mortgage loan book – will need to be extended with their existing lenders, switched to higher principal-and-interest repayments or transferred to a new lender. …In some cases lenders are forcing buyers to make the move to

The post Interest-only mortgages crunch the unwary appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, January 7, 2019 - 09:15 Source

Iron ore prices for January 4, 2019: Everything was up Friday. This is typical seasonal restocking activity. Expect it to run for most of January. Beyond that I am bearish. China has not delivered enough stimulus yet. The steel PMI in December remains quite weak as does the steel price. CISA output for mid-December slumped. 

The post Daily iron ore price update (restocking) appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, January 7, 2019 - 08:53 Source

Via the AIG this morning comes the manufacturing PMI: Full report here.

The post Manufacturing PMI boom hits brick wall appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, January 7, 2019 - 08:30 Source

By Chris Becker Risk markets have undergone a massive shift in sentiment on Friday night due to two major factors: the solid US jobs number followed by Fed Chairman Powell’s comments which were both reassuring and extremely supportive. The volatility swung the other way with US markets closing at least 3% higher across the major

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Australian Independent Media Network Monday, January 7, 2019 - 08:00 Source

Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton MP is well known for throwing out subjective opinion as fact. His flippant assertions are plastered across mainstream news, regardless of how incorrect, offensive or harmful to Australia’s diverse communities. However it’s one thing to pander to the ideological sensitivities of the conservative fan-base with misinformed declarations, and another thing…

The post “Peter Dutton is a Potato” – an analysis appeared first on The AIM Network.

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The Australian Independent Media Network Monday, January 7, 2019 - 01:55 Source

Often, when good women call out or are subject to bad behaviour, the reprisals, backlash and commentary portrays them as the bad ones – the liar, the troublemaker, the emotionally unstable or weak, or someone who should be silenced …” Julia Banks, former Liberal, now Independent MP for Chisholm. Julia Banks’ resignation speech is eerily…

The post Women are the forgotten people of the modern Liberal Party. appeared first on The AIM Network.

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MacroBusiness Monday, January 7, 2019 - 00:15 Source

It couldn’t happen to a nicer central bank. The world’s most corrupt monetary manager is about to do a spectacular volte face with seventeen twists. After years of pretending that it understands the economy, that Australia’s outlook is relentlessly bullish, that it was a good idea to supplant a mining boom and bust with a

The post A Tyrannosaurus sized egg hurtles towards RBA’s smiley face appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, January 7, 2019 - 00:14 Source

Via Livewiremarkets comes Philip Hofflin at Lazard: The critical financial issue in the Australian economy at present is clearly the possible economic effect of the decline in home prices. We have been warning about high home prices and household debt since 2015, but have always known that the timing of any downturn would be difficult, if

The post Lazard: Aussie house prices to fall for six years? appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, January 7, 2019 - 00:13 Source

DXY was soft Friday night. CNY and EUR up: The Australian dollar has launched out of its flash crash versus DMs: And is caning EMs: Gold broke out over Xmas but fell Friday night: Oil is rebounding strongly: Base metals not so much: Big miners had a good night: EM stocks too: High yield tore

The post Australian dollar crash a warning of things to come appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, January 7, 2019 - 00:00 Source

Macro/Markets The Economics of Soaking the Rich – New York Times American Economic Association: How Can Economics Solve Its Gender Problem? – American Economic Association Fed Chairman Powell to Markets: I Hear You – New York Times History has some troubling lessons on bear markets – Financial Times Apple Beware: Samsung’s Great Fall in China Was Swift – Wall Street

The post Links 7 January 2019 appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Harry Clarke Sunday, January 6, 2019 - 19:09 Source

The conventional view of economists and others is that nature and biodiversity have instrumental value as a consumption good (broadly defined to include conservation, aesthetic and altruistic motives as well as standard uses) and as a factor of production (e.g. transport or dairy. Thus we stop species from going extinct because it offends the convexity of our preferences – humans value diversity. This is an inadequate view for almost all conservation biologists and many philosophers who espouse eco-centrist or bio-centrist ethics. Their claim is that while.

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George Monbiot Sunday, January 6, 2019 - 19:02 Source

Researchers at public universities are developing new ways of shutting down our capacity for independent thought.

By George Monbiot, published in the Guardian 31st December 2018

 

To what extent do we decide? We tell ourselves we choose our own life course, but is this ever true? If you or I had lived 500 years ago, our worldview, and the decisions we made as a result, would have been utterly different. Our minds are shaped by our social environment, in particular the belief systems projected by those in power: monarchs, aristocrats and theologians then; corporations, billionaires and the media today.

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The Australian Independent Media Network Sunday, January 6, 2019 - 17:14 Source

By Kyran O’Dwyer  Apparently, Peter Dutton got some legal advice and it’s causing some consternation. By way of disclosure, I have the attention span of a gnat. Gnat, as in “a small two-winged fly that resembles a mosquito”, not “one who would ever countenance voting for the gNats”. It should also be noted that “Gnats…

The post Lawyer jokes? As always, the joke is on us. appeared first on The AIM Network.

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Duck Pond Sunday, January 6, 2019 - 14:58 Source

Circumstances change, but not always for the better. On a personal level, I am no longer walking the dogs. Lack of any exercise will likely make my situation worst. There is no diagnosis of my condition.

The situation in the world at large is no better. Whether it is Brazil, the Phillipines, and if we can ignore the Middle East, the United States or Australia. to ignore the threat of Climate Change is political diversion.

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John Quiggin Sunday, January 6, 2019 - 13:18 Source

Economics in Two Lessons is listed as the #1 New Release in Microeconomics on Amazon. I’m not sure what this means, but it sounds encouraging.

It’s now available for preorder now, with a release date of April 23, the hardcover publication date. Apple books also has it for pre-order.

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The Australian Independent Media Network Sunday, January 6, 2019 - 12:50 Source

In 2011, when Scott Morrison urged the shadow cabinet to capitalise on the electorate’s growing concerns about “Muslim immigration”, “Muslims in Australia” and the “inability” of Muslim migrants to integrate, he was rebuked by senior colleagues. Deputy leader, Julie Bishop, and the former immigration minister Philip Ruddock, strongly disagreed with the suggestion, pointing out that…

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