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MacroBusiness Tuesday, March 5, 2024 - 00:05 Source

The Albanese government’s target of building 1.2 million homes over five years continues to slip further out of reach. On Monday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released dwelling approvals data for January, which fell another 1.0% (expected +4.0%) over the month. This follows the 10.1% fall in December. The next chart plots monthly dwelling

The post All indicators scream housing crash appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Tuesday, March 5, 2024 - 00:05 Source

We know that the consumer is smashed. Now we see that the supply side of the economy has responded to that weakness with a large destocking pulse.  These are classic recession dynamics as inventory drawdowns bash GDP lower. Westpac has more. Business inventories fell by even more than we anticipated and will be a substantial drag

The post Treasurer Chalmers to break 40 year recesssion record appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, March 4, 2024 - 20:34 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, March 4, 2024 - 20:30 Source

H.J. Johnstone ‘A Billabong in the Goulburn Valley, Victoria’ 1878, Art Gallery of South Australia   AUD/USD   EUR/USD   USD/JPY   GBP/USD Gold WTI Brent Australia 200 US S&P 500 UK 100 Japan 225  

The post Macro Afternoon: 4 March 2024 appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Cheeseburger Gothic Monday, March 4, 2024 - 17:02 Source

Jane and I had cocktails in the city on the weekend. She chanced upon a bar called Dr Gimlette which looked pretty cool, so we decided to suss it out. It was good.

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The Australian Independent Media Network Monday, March 4, 2024 - 15:06 Source

Nuclear weapons are considered the strategic silverware of nation states. Occasionally, they are given a cleaning and polishing. From time to time, they go missing, fail to work, and suffer misplacement. Of late, the UK Royal Navy has not been doing so well in that department, given its seminal role in upholding the doctrine of…

The post Mistakes, Misfiring and Trident: Britain’s Flawed Nuclear Deterrence appeared first on The AIM Network.

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Renew Economy Monday, March 4, 2024 - 14:59 Source
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Renew Economy Monday, March 4, 2024 - 14:38 Source
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Your Democracy Monday, March 4, 2024 - 14:25 Source

While the journalist [Julian Assange] waits to be determined on his fate, a significant number of erroneous or misleading comments and information must be countered.

While media coverage of the latest hearings in London in the extradition trial of Julian Assange was, on the whole, correct, it once again gave rise to a significant number of erroneous or misleading comments and information.

 

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MacroBusiness Monday, March 4, 2024 - 14:15 Source

CBA’s write-up of Monday’s Q4 business indicators survey from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) included the below chart on private final demand: “The Business Inventories data today suggests demand in the private sector remained quite subdued”, CBA economist Stephen Wu wrote. “As the facing chart shows, overall income from sales rose by just 0.2%/qtr.

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Renew Economy Monday, March 4, 2024 - 13:57 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, March 4, 2024 - 13:40 Source

Dimitris Valatsas, the chief economist at US advisory firm Aurora Macro Strategy, penned a note to clients last week where he warned that contractionary fiscal policy settings are likely to make New Zealand’s recession even worse. “New Zealand has ample fiscal space to support the economy and it seems bizarre to me that it is

The post Reserve Bank wrestles with worsening recession appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, March 4, 2024 - 13:00 Source

Bill Mitchell from Brisbane Radio 4BC interviewed me, and I explained how ineffective government policies regarding energy and immigration have made the cost-of-living crisis in Australia worse. Below are highlights from the interview. Edited Transcript: If you take Queensland, for example. You are a massive energy exporter. You have got oodles of coal and oodles

The post Dumb policies are driving up cost-of-living appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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The Australian Independent Media Network Monday, March 4, 2024 - 12:34 Source

Despite the headlines on Sunday morning, it seems that the vast majority of the attendees at Mardi Gras last weekend were in fact ‘feeling the love’ police said the overall behaviour of 120,000 spectators and 12,500 participants on Saturday night was “pleasing”. There were no major incidents other than the arrest of the seven men…

The post The biggest loser appeared first on The AIM Network.

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MacroBusiness Monday, March 4, 2024 - 12:30 Source

RBA futures are finally figuring out that interest rate cuts are coming.  Though they still have the quantum and timing wrong. And I guess we can’t blame futures too much when the RBA itself seems to have no idea that it will be slashing rates in due course: Futures are beginning to align with the

The post RBA futures finally figure out rate cuts are coming appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, March 4, 2024 - 12:13 Source

Bank economists had tipped that the Australian economy would narrowly avoid a contraction in GDP when the Q4 national accounts are released on Wednesday. Most economists tipped that the economy would grow by 0.2% to 0.3% over Q4, with per capita growth contracting for a fourth consecutive quarter. The Q4 business indicators data released on

The post Aussie recession odds jump appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, March 4, 2024 - 12:09 Source
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The Australian Independent Media Network Monday, March 4, 2024 - 12:03 Source

By James Moore   Anyone who knows the Texas and Mexico border in any manner even approaching familiarity, would have laughed in D. Trump’s face during his news conference at Eagle Pass. Technically, there was nothing news worthy about his appearance on the banks of the Rio Grande and he did not answer questions. Instead, he…

The post The Borderlord: Chapter Two appeared first on The AIM Network.

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MacroBusiness Monday, March 4, 2024 - 11:50 Source

There is further good news on the inflation front, with the Melbourne Institute’s (MI) Inflation Gauge for February recording a 0.07% decline: The three-month annualised rate is also encouraging, falling to 1.2% in February from 1.5% in January. Over the year, the MI’s inflation gauge fell to 4.01%, which was a 22-month low: The core

The post Aussie inflation continues to fall appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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Renew Economy Monday, March 4, 2024 - 11:47 Source
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MacroBusiness Monday, March 4, 2024 - 11:41 Source

Via Indeed-ANZ: ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads resumed its downward trend in February, falling 2.8% m/m. Over the last year, Job Ads has declined in 92% of all occupational groups. And, as we know, labour supply is BOOMING, leading to higher unemployment in due course: Much higher UE and much faster than the RBA is currently

The post Job ads resume tumble appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, March 4, 2024 - 11:30 Source

This is the most maddening observation of energy trade worldwide. The East Coast Gas Cartel still has local prices sitting 10-20% above export netback prices to Europe and Asia: This is playing a key role in keeping electricity prices around 80% higher than they should be on a quarterly moving average basis: Meanwhile, China doesn’t

The post China and Japan re-export Aussie gas as they whinge appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, March 4, 2024 - 11:00 Source

The Australia Institute’s (TAI) Greg Jericho was at it again last week, lamenting that Australia has only reduced its carbon emissions by 2.4% below 2005 levels, describing it as “pathetic”: Jericho made a similar whinge in October, bemoaning that Australia had little chance of meeting its 43% carbon reduction target by 2030: Matthew Ryan at TUAI

The post The UnAustralia Institute gaslights on ‘net zero’ appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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xkcd.com Monday, March 4, 2024 - 11:00 Source

If you find an ash deposition layer from a year in which an eruption destroyed an island that had Camellia sinensis growing on it, you can make a Gone Island Ice_τ.

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Renew Economy Monday, March 4, 2024 - 10:43 Source
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The Tally Room Monday, March 4, 2024 - 10:30 Source

I’ve been thinking for a while of publishing a regular newsletter which would have a bit of a different style to my usual blog posts, where I can discuss topics I’ve found interesting recently.

For the last month I’ve started publishing such a newsletter via Patreon. This week’s newsletter went up earlier today and it includes my thoughts on the spin game around the Dunkley results. Each newsletter also gives me a chance to write a bit on stuff I’ve been reading recently.

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MacroBusiness Monday, March 4, 2024 - 10:30 Source

A report from S&P Global Ratings warns that the combined debt of Australia’s state and territory governments will reach a record $600 billion in 2024. This is forecast to reach $768 billion by 2027. In contrast, the combined debt was just $266.3 billion prior to the pandemic. Victoria’s gross debt is forecast to blow out to

The post Victoria leads blowout in state government debt appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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MacroBusiness Monday, March 4, 2024 - 10:00 Source

Or it’s the saddest bubble I can remember. The Market Ear with more. Right back to where we started “In the end, I wound up right back where I started. I could still pick winners, and I could still make money for all kinds of people back home. And why mess up a good thing.”

The post That’s not a bubble! appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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THE BLOT REPORT Monday, March 4, 2024 - 09:49 Source

Nationalism is an ideology based on the premise that the individual’s loyalty and devotion to the nation-state surpass other individual, family or group loyalties. In world politics, nationalism implies the identification of the nation-state with the people1.

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MacroBusiness Monday, March 4, 2024 - 09:30 Source

Hell hath no fury like an idiot Mainstaim Meda (iMSM) scorned: The current state of the iMSM is horrible: Nine’s metropolitans are centrist loss leaders for real estate sales. Nine’s AFR is the nation’s leading vested interest whore for hire. Murdoch’s The Australian is a culture war propagandist for the (anti-woke) fake right. The Guardian

The post Bonfire of the idiot Mainstream Media appeared first on MacroBusiness.

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