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Roy Morgan unemployment still 9.3%, but full-time jobs falling

May 9, 2017 - 00:16 -- Admin

By Leith van Onselen The latest Roy Morgan Research (RMR) unemployment estimate for April registered no change (still 9.3%) over the month but a 1.1% decrease over the year: Below are the key points from the release: Australia’s real unemployment for April was unchanged at 9.3% (1.217 million Australians looking for work). In addition, for

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East Coast highrise approvals continue to unwind

May 9, 2017 - 00:15 -- Admin

By Leith van Onselen Yesterday’s dwelling approvals data for March from the ABS reported a stabilisation in unit & apartment approvals following recent sharp falls: To add more colour to this series, I have once again plotted the breakdown of approvals by type for each of the states and territories, which are presented below in

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How big is the dwelling glut now?

May 9, 2017 - 00:15 -- Admin

By Leith van Onselen With the ABS yesterday releasing its dwelling approvals data for the March quarter, it’s an opportune time to once again examine how dwelling construction is tracking against population growth at the national and state and territory levels. The below charts track the following, which are based on the latest available quarterly

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Gas cartel drips feeds more gas

May 9, 2017 - 00:06 -- Admin

More gas investment is flowing from the east coast gas cartel but it is more remarkable for its caution that its magnitude. Via the AFR: Queensland’s almost forgotten international gas joint venture, Arrow Energy, has started work on a plan to throw $500 million at new onshore production in an initiative that demonstrates that Shell

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Daily iron ore price update (poor, bad, worse)

May 9, 2017 - 00:05 -- Admin

Iron ore price charts for May 8, 2017: Spot crushed again. I don’t have Tianjin benchmark today but it’s likely in the $58-59 range. Paper firmed slightly overnight. The outlook remains poor. Yesterday’s Chinese trade data was bad. Steel exports continue to crash, in at 6.49mt, down 35% year on year: I suspect that this

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Daily oil and LNG price update (upgrading glut)

May 9, 2017 - 00:05 -- Admin

The Brent oil price rebounded a little last night but remains under pressure: The news is bearish. Libya is pumping nicely: The Waha field in eastern Libya has covered lost production to a 75,000-barrel-per-day (bpd) level as of Friday, according to a field engineer who spoke to Reuters on Friday. Fighting between militia groups affiliated

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Inside China’s shadow credit crunch

May 9, 2017 - 00:04 -- Admin

Courtesy of Moody’s: » Systemic liquidity conditions have continued to tighten, reflecting intensified regulatory efforts to constrain the growth of leverage. The 7-day interbank repo rate reached 5% in late March, and the spread between Wealth Management Products (WMP) yields and one year benchmark deposit rates further widened. The PBoC’s tightening bias in monetary policy

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Chinese shadow banking: A primer

May 9, 2017 - 00:04 -- Admin

Courtesy of Moody’s: » Systemic liquidity conditions have continued to tighten, reflecting intensified regulatory efforts to constrain the growth of leverage. The 7-day interbank repo rate reached 5% in late March, and the spread between Wealth Management Products (WMP) yields and one year benchmark deposit rates further widened. The PBoC’s tightening bias in monetary policy

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Links 9 May 2017

May 9, 2017 - 00:01 -- Admin

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: What’s it like to lose £350m? A rogue trader confesses – The Guardian Inflation targets and the benefits of an explicit tolerance ban – VOX The Robots Have Taken Over (Our Brains) – Medium Thinking you’re living in a ‘hellhole’ today? Try being a billionaire in 1916. – Washington Post Americas: The government

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Macro Afternoon

May 8, 2017 - 16:54 -- Admin

by Chris Becker Asian stocks are starting the week with a bang as two major macro events over the weekend – the US NFP and the French elections – are absorbed with gusto from risk managers. The Euro has gapped higher on the open but come back as expected, while Yen and Aussie dollar were

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