ANZ has an interesting chart today. Without putting too fine a point on it, there is a correlation between population growth and job creation. This is pretty uncontroversial and part of the well-understood demographic dividend. When the inflows are accompanied by an exogenous boom, such as between 2003 and 2012, this makes perfect sense. The
December’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Update (MYEFO) upgraded Australia’s net overseas migration projection for 2024-25 from 260,000 to 340,000 (see below table). Every budget and MYEFO released by Labor since it was elected has badly underestimated Australia’s net overseas migration. Specifically: 2022-23: Began at 235,000, rose to 400,000, ended up being 535,500. 2023-24: Began at 215,000,
DXY is taking a well-earned breather. Australian dollar is threatening a bigger bounce. But the CNY concrete shoes will not come off. Oil is a worry. Copper is delusional again. Miners sagged. EM meh. Junk meh. Yields coming off. But stocks couldn’t follow through, except in Europe. Fed hawk Governer WAller was dovish. The inflation
Wall Street failed to advance on its latest surge overnight mainly due to a fall in tech stocks, led by Apple while European shares remained boisterous across most of the continent. The USD fell back against most of the undollars although Euro only advanced slightly on its new weekly high as Yen continued its own
Last month’s Guardian’s Essential Poll said the Albanese government was doing a poor job “increasing wages and workers’ rights”. This decline in purchasing power, the flipside of the cost-of-living crisis, is a key reason why Labor is trailing the Coalition in the polls ahead of the upcoming federal election. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was busy
Asian stock markets are somewhat mixed although local shares got a boost on a surprise uptick in the unemployment print that energised more RBA rate cut speculation. Meanwhile other FX volatility was centered around Yen that continues to firm against USD while the Australian dollar retraced back to the 62 cent level in what looks
Amusingly, the hatred-hating Guardian has succumbed to self-hatred. Guardian Australia is in turmoil ahead of a crucial federal election after its two most senior political journalists hurled allegations of workplace misconduct at each other, amid a staff exodus. A mainstay in Australian media since its 2013 launch, the local outpost of the British giant is
The iron ore price has lifted in recent days with support from Pilbvara disruptions and daily declarations for yawnulus in China. Steel has firmed a little, but, as usual, iron ore is pricing itself out first. But, the year ahead still shapes badly. Chinese steel demand is likely to fall another 2-3% under pressure from
2025 has seen a huge rise in long term bond yields, causing ructions in the stock market. Join us in this week’s podcast as Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen look at the causes, the implications and what it means for your portfolio Can’t make it to the live series? Catch up on the content
Goldman with the details. December total social financing (TSF) flows and new RMB loans came in above market expectations. Total social financing (TSF flow, reported): RMB 2858bn in December, vs. Bloomberg consensus: RMB 2160bn, GS forecast: RMB 2400bn.TSF stock growth: 8.0% yoy in December, vs. 7.8% in November. The implied month-on-month growth of TSF stock: