CBA’s excellent economics team has provided a comprehensive analysis of the federal budget. Below are key extracts broken down by theme. Overview: In the near term, the key economic and fiscal aggregates in the 2025-26 Budget are largely unchanged from the last official update in December, and broadly in line with our own forecasts. The
DXY faded a little AUD lifted a little. Lead boots are at a standstill. Gold pausing. Trump lunacy has overtaken oil as he smashes Venezuela and Iran while promising cheaper petrol. Copper is insane. This is bad for everybody except Goldman Sachs. Big miners sag on. EM yawn. Junk yawn. Yields eased. Stocks firmed. I
Treasurer Jim “chicken” Chalmers’ has released a hopeful new budget based upon some rosy assumptions. The headline numbers are realistic, but the wage price index is not going to re-accelerate unless unemployment falls more than forecast amid ongoing mass immigration of cheap Indian workers. This is a problem for revenue, especially with the mooted tax
Could it be that sense will finally prevail? ABC. Gas giants would be forced to supply more energy to the domestic energy market under gas reservation plans that could be adopted by both sides of politics in an election shootout over how best to secure more energy and drive down prices. In moves that would
A bit of Fedspeak overnight was overshadowed by the Clown Show in the White House overnight as markets remain somewhat hesitant as the April 2 deadline for Trump’s Tariff Tirade beckons. European shares were able to rebound firmly while Wall Street gave up some late gains to finish slightly higher. The USD pulled back ever
The Albanese government’s first budget, released in October 2022, forecasts net overseas migration of 470,000 over its first two financial years (2022-23 and 2023-24). They delivered more than double this number, with 1,060,000 net migrants arriving over nine quarters to Q3 2024. The May 2024 federal budget forecast net overseas migration of 260,000 for this
Roy Morgan Research has released polling, taken before Tuesday’s federal budget, showing that Labor (53%) has gained a strong lead over the Coalition (47%) on a two-party preferred basis. “If a Federal Election were held now, the ALP would be returned to Government with an increased majority with the ALP”, Roy Morgan reported. Roy Morgan’s
Labor handed down the ultimate pre-election pork-barreling budget, promising workers two more rounds of tax cuts and increasing expenditure in what will be the largest budget deficit since the pandemic. Major announcements included: a $17.1 billion package of income tax cuts (over five years); an $8.4 billion boost to Medicare; a $1.8 billion extension of
Not much action across Asian stock markets although offshore Chinese markets are feeling the pinch while mainland shares are unchanged as are the satellite Australian local stocks which have tread water again. The USD is also largely unchanged against the major currency pairs while the Australian dollar is failing to get back above the 63
Markets were slightly weak in February, but then turned nastily down in March. We sold down stocks at the start of March – more detail below. More market mayhem Two weeks ago, we lightened up substantially on stocks. I want to explain why we made these decisions and discuss the prevailing uncertainty in