I’m not sure where the rebar rally is coming from. There’s nothing much going on for demand. Perhaps it is the very weak seasonal restock. The Steel PMI ain’t it. Markets are very short ferrous so maybe that’s it. The outlook for rebar is terrible as China goes off the completions cliff, but perhaps steel
I’m assuming most readers are at least somewhat aware of DeepSeek over the past week, which culminated in a large sell-off in AI stocks on Monday. I thought it worth putting down some thoughts about where this may go. Quick background A small Chinese company, DeepSeek, released a large language model that matches or betters
Wall Street rebounded overnight from its Deepseek AI start of week dramas with tech stocks rebounding while other industrials were largely unchanged as they absorbed the latest macroeconomic news in the US and await the next FOMC meeting. FX markets were largely unmoved as well, absorbing the post weekend volatility and even more Trump Tariff
Already? DXY is back. AUD flamed out. Auld lead boots is back. Commods got tariffed. Miners ouch. EM so yetserday. Junk trying to throw some fuel on risk. As yields ease. Stocks rebounded. It’s hard to see how much further a DXY correction can get when El Trumpo fires off daily tariff warnings. Credit Agricole
Domain published the following chart showing how Melbourne house values have risen far quicker than unit values. “A typical house in Melbourne cost buyers 51.1% – or $310,202 – more than a unit in December 2024, according to CoreLogic data”, the article reads. “That has more than doubled since December 2014, when the gap was
Asian stock markets are having a hard time swallowing the volatility around the overnight moves on Wall Street due to the Deepseek AI problems, while equally swallowing the Deep Suck coming out of the White House around more tariffs. The USD was pushed significantly higher after several sessions of weakness with the Australian dollar breaking
So says Bernstein. Did DeepSeek really “build OpenAI for $5M? There are actually two model families in discussion. The first family is DeepSeek-V3, a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) large language model which, through a number of optimizations and clever techniques can provide similar or better performance vs other large foundational models but requires a small fraction of the
Westpac with the note. The Westpac Card Tracker Index* has come off a volatile Christmas-New Year period, retracing 4.5pts over the last two weeks to 137.8. The latest Index read is now slightly below the Dec month average (noting that all figures are adjusted for regular seasonal fluctuations). Underlying momentum has remained steady but unspectacular through the
MB has a love-hate relationship with The Australian’s Judith Sloan. The hate is usually about gas. I’m sure I’m not the only one who thinks it’s passing strange – more than passing strange – that Australia is about to become an importer of liquefied natural gas as well as an exporter. …How did this bizarre
The FT with the story. Donald Trump’s Treasury secretary Scott Bessent is pushing for new universal tariffs on US imports to start at 2.5 per cent and rise gradually, said four people familiar with the proposal. The 2.5 per cent levy would move higher by the same amount each month, the people familiar with it