Here it is. Over the past two years, the Biden administration struck a careful balance on artificial intelligence. The White House took steps to ensure the US stayed ahead of China in developing the technology while also trying to address some of AI’s many potential risks. In his first 24 hours back in Washington, Donald
DXY is holding but looks vulnerable to more pullback. AUD the opposite. CNY pumped and dumped on tariff talk. Oil is offering hope to risk. All commods were whacked on Trump’s 10% China tariff threat. Big miners too. EM stocks are caput. Junk is still stuck. Yields are sticky. Stocks heading for new ATH. Goldman
Wall Street advanced once more although the broader S&P500 just missed out on making a new high with tech stocks again leading the way. European bourses were somewhat mixed on the periphery but also performed well. The USD is now trying to get out of its weak short term cycle against the major currency pairs
One of the Trump Administration’s first acts upon taking the US Presidential Office was to declare a “national energy emergency”. “We need a reliable, diversified, and affordable supply of energy to drive our Nation’s manufacturing, transportation, agriculture, and defense industries, and to sustain the basics of modern life and military preparedness”, the executive order reads.
A lot of regional internal news are moving Asian stock markets instead of the usual macro newsfront with mainland Chinese shares off sharply while traders await the latest BOJ decision as wage and labour concerns mount. The USD is still suffering from post-Trumpian volatility which had been centered around Yen although as other undollars continue
Always sobering and usually right…eventually. I agree with much of the below but don’t think we are there yet. Albert Edwards of Societe General bears it up! Existing trends were pushed to new extremes in 2024. The idea of US equity market exceptionalism has taken such deep root that it’s impacting so much else,
Goldman with the note. President Trump’s Inauguration Day policy announcements on tariffs were more benign than expected. While we did not expect major policy pronouncements so soon following inauguration, Trump’s comments on China were notably less hawkish than during the presidential campaign or even his more recent comments since the election. And while we viewed
The Market Ear with more. The power of the hammer candle Last Monday we pointed out the powerful hammer candle in SPX. We wrote: “Watch these type of candles post sell offs, as they can be the first signal of markets about to bounce. We saw a similar candle set up in early November.” Fast forward
Westpac with the note. Leading Index growth rate dips back to 0.25% but still slightly positive. Growth set to improve in 2025 but remain lacklustre. Modest lifts in commodities, consumer, equities and dwelling approvals. While the growth signal is still not particularly strong, it has shown a clear improvement on the persistently negative, below-trend reads
CBA with the bad news. Despite our expectation for a lift in household expenditure to a more trend-like pace as the cash rate is normalised, there will be a natural handbrake on the pace of consumption growth. First, the positive impact on household income from the Stage 3 tax cuts will fade as no personal