The data flow in Australia this week centres on Wednesday’s vitally important Q4 24 CPI release. This inflation print will make or break the case for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to deliver an interest rate cut at its next meeting on 18 February. CBA estimates that the policy-relevant trimmed-mean CPI rose by 0.5%
Ferrous markets are rallying into LNY. The underpinnings remain weak. Flat is OK. Long is not. Is tariff front running done? I’m a buyer of puts on strength into May seasonal weakness.
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In the last couple of weeks, the recovery in China’s primary property market has slowed. The secondary market slowed too, though not quite so much. Prices are threatening to bottom in both markets. Sentiment sucks. Oh dear! Stimulus lol. Ain’t no future ‘ere. Meanwhile, the wider economy also slowed with the January PMIs. Manufacturing. Services.
The Market Ear with the carnage. It was late On Thursday we pointed out the logic on why it was “Getting Late To Chase The Market”. SPX has reversed aggressively right in the top of the range. 100 day comes in around 5950 (futures), but the big supports are down in the 5900/5850 area. This
Big drama on Wall Street overnight as AI dragged tech stocks down heavily with the NASDAQ losing nearly 4% as Nvidia and others lost significant ground. Broader industrial shares were hit as well with European stocks also failing to advance, sending a dark signal for Asian markets on this morning’s open. The USD is getting
CoreLogic’s daily dwelling values index shows that home values continue to decline across Sydney and Melbourne, down 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively, over the past 28 days. Data from CoreLogic also shows a sharp rise in the number of homes listed for sale across Sydney and Melbourne in recent weeks. The number of dwellings on the
CTAs and systemics aggressively bought Australian dollars last week, undoing some of the recent bearish imbalance. BofA has more. With trend followers stretched long USD and only moderately long US equities, the SG CTA benchmark posted declines on the week. In FX, our model covered short EUR, GBP, and AUD positions this week and is
Over the weekend, I was interviewed by Luke Grant from Radio 2GB/4BC, discussing the current debate over Australia’s housing crisis. The interview was in response to last week’s impassioned article in The SMH bemoaning that young Sydneysiders were leaving en masse, driven out by exorbitant housing costs. The article said nearly 40,000 prime-aged residents aged
DXY has begun its consolidation in earnest. Is it twin peaks as Trump turns soggy on China tariffs? AUD bear hunting season has started. Nice little inverse head and shoulders bottom for traders to buy. CFTC still way short. Bullish! Lead boots up and away! Gold grotesquely overbought but at least it has a falling
Werribee Park International Trump’s crypto grift is a warning– Vox The broligarchs have a vision for the new Trump term. It’s darker than you think.– Vox Which industries are most vulnerable to Trump’s immigration crackdown?– CBS Business leaders have thrown money at presidents before, but not like this– ABC The left after Trump–