Wall Street returned from its long weekend and rallied across the board, not helped by more tariff talk although most of that looks like the typical hot air so far, with the USD still remaining in a weak short term cycle against the major currency pairs. European shares were flat as the lift in Euro
The fearmongering over the exodus of property investors from Victoria has continued. Rental bond data from the Victorian Government shows that the state lost 24,726 rentals (3.6% of its stock) in the year ending 30 September 2024, the sharpest decline in rental bonds on record. Melbourne lost 23,108 rentals (4.2% of its stock) over the
Asian stock markets are generally in a positive mood although mainland Chinese shares can’t find a bid as they worry about the incoming Washington Circus as tariff threats still linger like a full Depends pullup. Meanwhile FX volatility was centered around Yen again as other undollars continue to probe the USD while the Australian dollar
If you cancel instead of engaging with your political and ideological competition, then it is you, not them, that has succumbed to hate. Sadly for cancel culture, by definition, it can’t learn this lesson, and so self-immolation is inevitable. Amid staff turnover and clashes at Guardian Australia, journalists in the UK have reportedly been considering
So says the CBA’s excellent Gareth Aird. We forecast GDP growth to have been 1.1%/yr at Q4 24 and to accelerate through 2025 to be 2.2%/yr in Q4 25. The unemployment rate is expected to edge higher in H1 25 and we anticipate it will end the year at 4.3% (the peak in this cycle).
It was only a few weeks ago that LVO wrote an excellent piece decomposing Australia’s detonating cafepocalypse. A critical component of the meltdown is the exploding price of coffee beans. There is no immediate end in sight to the shortage. There is a heavy backwardation in futures but no return to reasonable prices for years.
The patchwork of regulators for gas—ACCC, AEMO, AER, state and federal departments—has no single oversight of the destruction wrought by the East Coast gas cartel. For instance, I have been calling for years for increased southern gas storage to hedge peak winter consumption. Domestically reserved and regulated priced QLD gas should be shipped south in
The ferrous complex is following its typical seasonal pattern leading into Lunar New Year. But do not be fooled. This is not a good omen for the year ahead. Westpac has warned that iron ore prices could collapse 30 per cent this year to about $US70 a tonne when Rio Tinto floods the market with
The Market Ear on the latest equity signals. The break out? Is WSJ’s “won’t impose new tariffs yet” article enough for futures to break out to the upside when markets are closed? SPX futures breaking above the short term trend line as of writing. A close here or higher and things risk becoming even more
This morning, Crikey sneers at Trump 2.0. “The golden age of America begins right now,” Trump declared in his 29-minute address. “From this moment on, America’s decline is over.” The president’s speech was littered with phrases such as “a revolution of common sense” and “drill, baby, drill” as he announced he would declare an emergency