It is amusing to watch, in the usual dark way, how China keeps promising to decarbonise steel while in actuality pumping ever more carbon. December data from the NBS showed steel output slowed into year end, with annual production falling 1.7% to 1.005bn tonnes. Down roughly 50mt from the peak. The slump would have been
Green across the board across both sides of the Atlantic on Friday night with Wall Street having its best week since the election in November as traders weigh up the lifting of the Trump Circus Tent come Monday morning. The USD had a late surge after pulling back against most of the undollars throughout the
Australia’s economy is on public sector life support. The overwhelming majority (87%) of jobs created over the past two years have been in the non-market (government-funded) sector. Much of this job growth has been related to the NDIS, which has driven explosive growth in the healthcare and social assistance sector. “When governments, as they often
Aussie inflation is beaten. The RBA should and likely will cut rates in February. Timely monthly core measures are in free fall. Headline is even better. Business surveys are smashed. Inflation expectations are perfectly anchored. Wage growth is sagging dangerously into Albo’s Indian inundation. This has dragged the carpet from under rents and wider services
DXY rallied back. AUD barely hanging on to COVID lows. CNY got nuthin’ from GDP lies. Oil is overbought. Gold is getting flirty. So is dirt. Miners firming. I’m licking my chops to load up on shorts if these runs. EM stocks meh. Junk wants run but… …it’s all about duration, which is still threatening.
Otway Coast near Lorne The rest American shoppers wrap up the year in a spending mood, boding well for the U.S. economy – AP Global growth forecast to flatline as tariffs add to strains – BBC Immigrant US farmworkers prepare for Trump mass deportation plan – Reuters China to start probing US exports
The gas cartel breather is over. It’s back to gouging you to death with gas at $14.50Gj. Electricity prices are still up 150% year on year. AER prices are going to jump in 25/26. The pipelines south from QLD’S huge gas resources are still running near empty when they should be filling up much larger
The bubble of a lifetime in CBA shows no signs of bursting at 26x growthless earnings. Hilariously, on two-year forward earnings, CBA is the Magnificent 8th! And Aussie banks are plain stupid in context. I still maintain that this bubble is going to burst when rate cuts begin. The mass immigration economy does not do
The Market Ear on the Trump cross-currents for equities. The 10 year US 10 year putting in the biggest down candle in a while post the CPI numbers. First support at 4.6%, where the 21 day comes in. The 50 day is down at 4.43%. Source: Refinitiv Bond convexity CTA 1 month upside convexity is
Steel prices are continuing to show some life. Not so iron ore. CISA steel mill output for the first 10 days of January was strong. However, that is unlikely to last beyond the seasonal rebuild. RIO confirmed strong guidance (though its recent record has been shit). More to the point, RIO confirmed the Pilbara killer