MacroBusiness
Wednesday, May 4, 2022 - 12:00
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Relax about USD reserve status. For me, the important point about this is the scale of shock needed to shift the system. We would need to see China with the largest or most imposing military presence and production worldwide. It would need to run huge current account deficits. And we’d need to see the epi-center The post Good luck dislodging King Dollar from its throne appeared first on MacroBusiness. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] |
MacroBusiness
Wednesday, May 4, 2022 - 11:43
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The Australian mortgage market rebounded in March, according to new data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The total value of new mortgage commitments rose by a seasonally adjusted 1.6% in March 2022 to be up 11.1% year-on-year: Owner-occupier commitments rose only 0.9% in March, whereas investor commitments rose 2.9%. The next The post Investor mortgage demand booms ahead of rate rises appeared first on MacroBusiness. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] |
MacroBusiness
Wednesday, May 4, 2022 - 11:30
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This will matter a lot. When CNY falls so do broader EMs. When the CNY falls as the Fed tightens, DMs fall as well. BofA’s bear case is my base case and the AUD follows CNY. — CNY depreciation is gathering momentum, registering a 2.26% fall against the USD over the past week (almost two-standard The post Yuan into the pit appeared first on MacroBusiness. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] |
MacroBusiness
Wednesday, May 4, 2022 - 11:00
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Deloitte’s latest weekly economic update warns that the global economy is headed into a period of stagflation whereby inflation and interest rates are rising at the same time as growth weakens: Many other central banks around the world have already commenced lifting their official rates to stem inflationary pressures, and they are doing so at The post Deloitte: Stagflation shock coming for global economy appeared first on MacroBusiness. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] |
MacroBusiness
Wednesday, May 4, 2022 - 10:40
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Well done to the RBA. Having promised rock bottom rates to 2024, it has now unleashed the greatest single greatest interest rate shock in modern history: There is nothing in the Australian economic outlook to support these rates. It is some combination of failed RBA credibility, Wall Street commodities narrative, and temporary post-COVID bounce. The The post RBA triggers bond bloodbath, rates shock appeared first on MacroBusiness. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] |
MacroBusiness
Wednesday, May 4, 2022 - 10:40
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Barclays with a good note that sums up my own views nicely. I’d only add that whatever the final growth figure this year it will be grossly exaggerated. — Downside risk increasing How has China credit performed so far in the recent local COVID outbreak? China credit spreads started to widen on 6 April, when The post China zero-COVID “worse” in 2022 than 2020 appeared first on MacroBusiness. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] |
MacroBusiness
Wednesday, May 4, 2022 - 10:20
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The 2022-2023 Victorian Budget has been released which tips an $2.0 billion drop in the state’s stamp duty receipts in 2022-23 off a predicted 4% decline in property values over the 2023 calendar year: Revenue from land transfer duty is expected to increase to $10.2 billion in 2021-22, consistent with strong residential dwelling price growth The post Victoria budget readies for stamp duty collapse appeared first on MacroBusiness. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] |
Renew Economy
Wednesday, May 4, 2022 - 10:13
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MacroBusiness
Wednesday, May 4, 2022 - 10:00
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CoreLogic has released its property Pain & Gain report for May, which revealed that regional property owners reaped record profits on sales in the final quarter of 2021: 93.8% of resales nationally over the December quarter made a nominal gain for a total nominal profit of $38 billion. This was up from 92.4% in the The post Regional home owners reap massive profits appeared first on MacroBusiness. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] |
xkcd.com
Wednesday, May 4, 2022 - 10:00
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The Tally Room
Wednesday, May 4, 2022 - 09:30
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This is a follow-up to Monday’s blog post, which explored the trends away from election day voting at the federal level, and how those trends have been accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. For this blog post, I’m splitting up the 2019 vote between votes cast on election day and those cast earlier, and looking at which seats have higher rates of early voting. |
MacroBusiness
Wednesday, May 4, 2022 - 09:30
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More Morrison corruption today: Prime Minister Scott Morrison has opened a new front in the debate over a national integrity commission, declaring Australia could become an unrecognisable “public autocracy” if such a body is given too much influence over government decision-making. With Labor, the Greens and the “teal” independents campaigning hard on the need for The post Morrison gaslights integrity commission appeared first on MacroBusiness. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] |
The Tally Room
Wednesday, May 4, 2022 - 09:30
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As a final part in my series on trends in people voting early, today I’m analysing differences in how people vote, depending on whether they vote early or vote on election day, using the categories established in yesterday’s post. Despite losing the last two elections, Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote amongst those voting on election day at both of those elections. Indeed Labor has won the election day vote at four out of the last five federal elections. |
MacroBusiness
Wednesday, May 4, 2022 - 09:00
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DXY is still hovering at twenty-year highs: AUD largely shrugged off the RBA as it looks forward to the Fed: Oil was weak: Metals too: And miners: EM stocks are clinging to the cliff top: And junk: As yields rose again plus the curve flattened: Stocks managed minor gains: Westpac has the wrap: Event Wrap The post Australian dollar shrugs off RBA appeared first on MacroBusiness. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] |
MacroBusiness
Wednesday, May 4, 2022 - 09:00
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Overnight stock markets were a little more bullish as anticipation builds for the upcoming Fed meeting. Bond markets had a roundtrip of a night with 10 year US Treasury yields still pushing around the 3% level with a 50 basis point rise at the next Fed meeting still being priced in. The USD remains strong The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] |
Your Democracy
Wednesday, May 4, 2022 - 06:47
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Let me tell you about the most brazen assault on Australia’s secular democracy you have probably never heard about. It’s the Seven Mountains Mandate. And it’s quietly creeping from America into Australian political life, with the express purpose of taking control of all the institutions of power.
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Your Democracy
Wednesday, May 4, 2022 - 06:26
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The Morrison government's election campaign is a disaster, but the real story is still the state of the press |
The Australian Independent Media Network
Wednesday, May 4, 2022 - 06:00
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Saturday, April 30 1 Whatever it was, the week’s rest seems to have done wonders for Anthony Albanese. His performance at last Saturday morning’s press conference was as good as l has seen from him. And it must be said that other members of the leadership group who accompanied him gave equally passionate performances. And it… The post At the half way mark can Labor feel confident of victory? appeared first on The AIM Network. |
MacroBusiness
Wednesday, May 4, 2022 - 00:05
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Yesterday’s ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence survey posted a massive 6.0% fall, driven by a 9.6% decline amongst people ‘paying off their home loan’, who are growing increasing concerned about rising interest rates. The concern is greatest amongst the army of households that took out jumbo-sized mortgages in 2021 at record low rates below 2.5%: Many The post Interest rate apocalypse: mortgage repayments set to double appeared first on MacroBusiness. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] |
MacroBusiness
Wednesday, May 4, 2022 - 00:05
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It is wall-to-wall bad news for New Zealand’s housing market. First, major bank ASB has joined ANZ in increasing the rate at which it stress tests mortgage applicants. ASB lifted its stress test rate by 50 basis points to 7.35%, which follows the nation’s largest mortgage lender, ANZ, increasing in its stress test rate by The post Bottom falls out of New Zealand’s housing market appeared first on MacroBusiness. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] |
MacroBusiness
Wednesday, May 4, 2022 - 00:01
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Global Macro / Markets / Investing: The S&P is having its worst start to a year since 1939 – CNN Food Shortages Surge to Record High, Food Price Inflation 2nd Highest Ever – Breitbart Hi, Stagflation. We’re officially here. Growth is negative and inflation is at 9 percent. – Forbes Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger Blast The post Links 4 May 2022 appeared first on MacroBusiness. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] |
The Australian Independent Media Network
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 - 23:45
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From one of our American friends… By Tales & Typos I read The Handmaid’s Tale by Margaret Atwood when it was first published in 1985. I thought it was brilliant then, and now it’s resurrection as a television series is even more eerie – eerily realistic. When I began watching the Hulu television series, I… The post What is The Handmaid’s Tale? appeared first on The AIM Network. |
The Australian Independent Media Network
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 - 18:30
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By Lucy Hamilton The recent budget has underscored that the Coalition government has abandoned the needy, and the nation’s future. Whether an Australian is hunting for a job or displaced from disaster-wrecked town, they should expect almost nothing from our leaders. The budget’s lessons should remind us that “conservatives” see themselves as representing the self-sufficient.… |
The Australian Independent Media Network
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 - 17:06
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The great awakening Morrison’s tenure has been a test of his character – one he has failed abysmally. The election will be a test of Australia’s character but likely one we will pass. It is not entirely clear to me when Smirko Morrison’s re-election campaign jumped the shark. Tony Abbott was a national embarrassment, a… The post The Gaffer Tapes appeared first on The AIM Network. |
MacroBusiness
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 - 16:30
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A mixed session here in Asia for risk takers as most of the big stock markets are closed still with the dominating catalyst for the day being the once in a decade rate rise by the RBA, which lead to some oscillation in stock prices but put a light underneath the Australian dollar. Even still, The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness. [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]] |
Renew Economy
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 - 16:00
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The Australian Independent Media Network
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 - 15:39
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There will be many uncast votes on 21 May. There will be many voices silenced because those aged 70 or over represent 83% of the growing Covid deaths in Australia. Lest we forget. I am in my 70th year. An achievement in some ways. My vote, and that of my companions, will not decide this… The post The vote of Citizen K appeared first on The AIM Network. |
Renew Economy
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 - 15:08
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Renew Economy
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 - 15:02
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Renew Economy
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 - 14:59
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