Blogotariat

This will matter a lot. When CNY falls so do broader EMs. When the CNY falls as the Fed tightens, DMs fall as well. BofA’s bear case is my base case and the AUD follows CNY. — CNY depreciation is gathering momentum, registering a 2.26% fall against the USD over the past week (almost two-standard

The post Yuan into the pit appeared first on MacroBusiness.

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Well done to the RBA. Having promised rock bottom rates to 2024, it has now unleashed the greatest single greatest interest rate shock in modern history: There is nothing in the Australian economic outlook to support these rates. It is some combination of failed RBA credibility, Wall Street commodities narrative, and temporary post-COVID bounce. The

The post RBA triggers bond bloodbath, rates shock appeared first on MacroBusiness.

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

The 2022-2023 Victorian Budget has been released which tips an $2.0 billion drop in the state’s stamp duty receipts in 2022-23 off a predicted 4% decline in property values over the 2023 calendar year: Revenue from land transfer duty is expected to increase to $10.2 billion in 2021-22, consistent with strong residential dwelling price growth

The post Victoria budget readies for stamp duty collapse appeared first on MacroBusiness.

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

CoreLogic has released its property Pain & Gain report for May, which revealed that regional property owners reaped record profits on sales in the final quarter of 2021: 93.8% of resales nationally over the December quarter made a nominal gain for a total nominal profit of $38 billion. This was up from 92.4% in the

The post Regional home owners reap massive profits appeared first on MacroBusiness.

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

This is a follow-up to Monday’s blog post, which explored the trends away from election day voting at the federal level, and how those trends have been accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

For this blog post, I’m splitting up the 2019 vote between votes cast on election day and those cast earlier, and looking at which seats have higher rates of early voting.

As a final part in my series on trends in people voting early, today I’m analysing differences in how people vote, depending on whether they vote early or vote on election day, using the categories established in yesterday’s post.

Despite losing the last two elections, Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote amongst those voting on election day at both of those elections. Indeed Labor has won the election day vote at four out of the last five federal elections.

Overnight stock markets were a little more bullish as anticipation builds for the upcoming Fed meeting. Bond markets had a roundtrip of a night with 10 year US Treasury yields still pushing around the 3% level with a 50 basis point rise at the next Fed meeting still being priced in. The USD remains strong

The post Macro Morning appeared first on MacroBusiness.

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

The Morrison government's election campaign is a disaster, but the real story is still the state of the press

Yesterday’s ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence survey posted a massive 6.0% fall, driven by a 9.6% decline amongst people ‘paying off their home loan’, who are growing increasing concerned about rising interest rates. The concern is greatest amongst the army of households that took out jumbo-sized mortgages in 2021 at record low rates below 2.5%: Many

The post Interest rate apocalypse: mortgage repayments set to double appeared first on MacroBusiness.

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: The S&P is having its worst start to a year since 1939 – CNN Food Shortages Surge to Record High, Food Price Inflation 2nd Highest Ever – Breitbart Hi, Stagflation. We’re officially here. Growth is negative and inflation is at 9 percent. – Forbes Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger Blast

The post Links 4 May 2022 appeared first on MacroBusiness.

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

By Lucy Hamilton   The recent budget has underscored that the Coalition government has abandoned the needy, and the nation’s future. Whether an Australian is hunting for a job or displaced from disaster-wrecked town, they should expect almost nothing from our leaders. The budget’s lessons should remind us that “conservatives” see themselves as representing the self-sufficient.…

A mixed session here in Asia for risk takers as most of the big stock markets are closed still with the dominating catalyst for the day being the once in a decade rate rise by the RBA, which lead to some oscillation in stock prices but put a light underneath the Australian dollar. Even still,

The post Macro Afternoon appeared first on MacroBusiness.

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website for full links, other content, and more! ]]

There will be many uncast votes on 21 May. There will be many voices silenced because those aged 70 or over represent 83% of the growing Covid deaths in Australia. Lest we forget. I am in my 70th year. An achievement in some ways. My vote, and that of my companions, will not decide this…

The post The vote of Citizen K appeared first on The AIM Network.