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Morgan Stanley: The great Aussie deleveraging is here

October 30, 2018 - 09:45 -- Admin

Via Morgan Stanley on the last of the global housing bubbles: These economies now face a crucial juncture as housing markets weaken, forcing a reappraisal of leverage and wealth, and global financial conditions tighten, increasing the consumption drag from debt service and rising savings. The increasingly proactive use of macroprudential tools and greater inflation-target flexibility

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Sydney leads deflation in Aussie land values

October 30, 2018 - 09:30 -- Admin

By Leith van Onselen On Friday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its 2017-18 Australian System of National Accounts (ASNA) data release, which provides a detailed presentation of annual national accounts data. Locked away on Table 61 is my favourite section of the release: data on aggregate land values at the state and national

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Daily iron ore price update (warning signs)

October 30, 2018 - 09:15 -- Admin

Iron ore price charts for October 29, 2018: Spot down. Paper down more. Coking coal has flamed out. Steel too. Port stocks are rising again, back up to 144mt which at least helps explain recent price moves. There are some other warning signs developing too. Via Vertical Group: ▪ Two of the Key Data Points

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Macro Morning

October 30, 2018 - 09:00 -- Admin

By Chris Becker Another volatile night on markets with European stocks leading a bounceback that then faltered before crashing on Wall Street with a very late “Hail Mary” recovery in the last hour of trading. Currency markets were not as crazy but the USD is reasserting itself against all the majors, a small bounce on

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Australian dollar sinks with global stocks

October 30, 2018 - 09:00 -- Admin

DXY was up again last night. CNY and EUR both fell: CNY especially took down the AUD: Gold is uncertain: Oil fell: Base metals too: Miners were mixed: EM stocks smashed: High yield did better: Treasuries were sold and curve flattened: Bunds were sold too: Italy is improving: Stocks were well bought but got hammered

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NSW/VIC caught in stamp duty doom loop

October 30, 2018 - 00:15 -- Admin

By Leith van Onselen The epic stamp duty bust coming to NSW and VIC is finally in the public spotlight, as both dwelling values and transaction volumes plummet: David Ross from News.com.au has sounded the alarm: STATE governments love splashing the cash, especially at election time. New road? There’s $4 billion to you. What about

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Moody’s: Mortgage arrears to rise into 2019

October 30, 2018 - 00:11 -- Admin

From Moody’s Investor services: Softening housing market conditions, combined with high household debt, higher interest rates and the conversion of interest-only mortgages to principal and interest repayments, will lead to a moderate increase in delinquencies over the remainder of 2018 and into 2019. The housing market in NSW and Victoria slowed over the 12 months

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Links 30 October 2018

October 30, 2018 - 00:01 -- Admin

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: IBM to Acquire Linux Distributor Red Hat for $33.4 Billion – Bloomberg Strong Earnings Haven’t Cured the Stock Market’s Blues – WSJ Bond Traders, Spooked by Tumult in Stocks, Doubt Fed’s Rate Path – Bloomberg The huge new Pacific trade deal is about to kick off without the US

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Bloxo spins rising fuel costs

October 29, 2018 - 15:30 -- Admin

By Leith van Onselen HSBC chief economist, Paul Bloxham, has delivered an amusing take on the impact of rising oil costs on Australian households: “When the oil price goes up, we get the drag from the rise in petrol prices in the household sector but, at the same time, we’re getting more income from the

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President Trump rallies into the mid-terms

October 29, 2018 - 14:49 -- Admin

The latest polls show Mr Trump at post-election highs: Morgan Stanley mulls outcomes: Trade risk is a constant. On election night, focus on other variables. While much is made of election outcomes influencing markets by shifting trade policy, we think this is overstated. Even if Democrats take control, they have their fair share of trade

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