Macro Afternoon: 7 October 2025
Old Queenscliff Pier, Victoria AUD/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD Gold WTI Brent Australia 200 US S&P 500 UK 100 Japan 225 Vids
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New Zealand’s house price crash continues
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has slashed the official cash rate by 2.50% from its July 2024 top of 5.50%: As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, the sharp cut in the cash rate has reduced mortgage rates for new loans back to around pre-pandemic levels: Such a large decline in mortgage
Victoria’s worst criminals reoffend every 2.7 minutes
When the Crime Statistics Agency recently released Victoria’s crime statistics for 2024-25, it revealed that the state saw a record high number of criminal incidents, with over 483,000 incidents over the course of the financial year. But going through the numbers, one stat really jumped out at readers: Victoria Police reported that just 5,400 repeat
Aussie consumer hopium crashes back to earth
After a months-long rebound, Westpac’s monthly consumer sentiment index crashed back to a 6-month low in September as hopes of deep interest rate cuts faded. Westpac’s Head of Australian Macro-Forecasting, Matthew Hassan, explains the results below. Key Points: Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index declines 3.5% to 92.1 in October. Optimism about outlook for family finances fades.
Businesses gutted by soaring energy costs
Energy is the bedrock of a modern economy. Without affordable and reliable energy, an economy will experience cost inflation across the supply chain. The energy-intensive manufacturing sector will also shrink as it can no longer break a profit and compete against cheaper imports. Australia’s economy has experienced soaring energy costs—both electricity and gas prices—which are
YouTube fights back against Aussie eKaren
I consider the video-sharing platform YouTube to be one of the most useful and powerful educational tools available. Every day, I utilise YouTube to learn about topics or to troubleshoot problems. My teenage daughter regularly uses YouTube ‘How-to’ videos to learn about arts and crafts, solve math problems, fix computer issues, learn about history, do video
Andrew Bragg spins housing supply fairytales
Last week, shadow home affairs minister Andrew Hastie resigned from the Coalition’s frontbench following frustration that he would have no input into the party’s immigration policy. Hastie argues that “uncontrolled migration” has been a major contributor to the decline in housing affordability in Australia, alongside infrastructure congestion and other issues. However, shadow housing and productivity
Australia’s broken economy leaves us divided
Looking at any number of indicators of health for households within the Australian economy, the news is hardly stellar. Real wages are at levels last seen in late 2011 and if the RBA’s projected rate of growth out into the future is realised, the pre-Covid peak will be reached in the mid-2030s. Meanwhile, growth in
Australia’s sin taxes have gone too far
I wrote last week about how the taxation of tobacco is one of Australia’s biggest policy failures. The federal government has repeatedly raised tobacco taxes to discourage smoking. Yet, the Australian Medical Association has warned that the availability of cheaper, illegal tobacco has led to a sharp rise in smoking rates, alongside booming organised crime
Gold Roars, Kamikaze Yields, and the SOX Melt Up
From the Market Ear: Kamikaze The Japanese 30 year has risen sharply over the past few years. Is this a similar break out move like we saw earlier this year? Gold loves it Gold loves rising Japanese 30 year yields… The streak Gold prices have now posted their 8th consecutive quarterly gain, the third-longest streak