It may seem counterintuitive, but, in my view, the odds of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hike next week are falling by the minute. If the Iran war continues at its current intensity and the Straits of Hormuz remain closed, the oil price will be $200 next week, on its way to $500
Australia’s major capital city housing markets have been two-speed since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. As illustrated below using PropTrack data on dwelling values, home prices across Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide have more than doubled since March 2020, whereas Sydney (46%) and Melbourne (22%) have experienced significantly slower value growth: Cotality’s
The supply-side nutters at the Centre for Independent Studies have produced “research” showing that “migrants aren’t to blame for the housing crisis”. Instead, the CIS argues that Australia’s housing shortage is “the result of not enough dwellings being built”: “Population growth alone does not produce today’s housing shortage”, claimed CIS author Marian L Tupy. “The
With the likelihood of a protracted war in the Middle East increasing, Australia is facing rising energy prices on three fronts. Rising Oil (Petrol and Diesel) Prices: The price of oil has already risen and should continue to do so as global supplies are halted and the Straits of Hormuz seize up. All Iran needs
Proponents of high levels of immigration typically argue that it lifts productivity and living standards because migrants tend to be better educated and more highly skilled than the average Australian. They generally cite spurious modelling to support their claims, ignoring the actual empirical evidence showing that Australia’s labour productivity and per capita GDP growth slowed
The world is falling apart, but the jaws are back. According to scuttlebutt, the proximate causes are: China’s state-run iron ore buyer told several traders this week to buy fewer seaborne cargoes of BHP’s flagship products, including Mac fines and Newman fines, people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters, as a months-long contract dispute
Goldman reckons oil is going higher. The analysis highlights rapidly rising upside risks to oil prices from a severe disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The base case forecast previously assumed Brent crude in the low $80s in March and the high $70s in the second quarter, based on the expectation that
The global gas shock is building and is going much higher this week unless the TACO comes. If the TACO doesn’t arrive, the gas price will skyrocket by the following week. But so far, the reaction at home has been completely different from the reaction to the Ukraine War. The local gas spot price is
Since the latest round of conflict in the Middle East kicked off on the 28th of February, the cost of a barrel of oil (WTI) has risen by $23.98 compared with the final close of markets prior to the war, representing a rise in oil prices of 35.6%. Taking a longer view, the current level
President Donald J. Trump oversees Operation Epic Fury at Mar-a-Lago, Palm Beach, FL, Feb. 28, 2026. (White House photo by Daniel Torok) We have become spectators in the demolition of an era. We are now, more than ever, bit players in what is unfolding, so we are detached. We can’t take our eyes off the