Macro Afternoon: 18 September 225
Newlyn, Victoria AUD/USD EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY Gold WTI Brent Australia 200 US S&P 500 UK 100 Japan 225
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Aussie rate cut hopes fade
Belinda Allen, CBA’s Head of Australian Economics, believes that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will only cut the official cash rate (OCR) once more in November, given the recent stronger run of economic data. This would take the OCR to 3.35%, which is close to CBA’s estimate of neutral. Market pricing has also shifted
Chinese property sinks into bottomless abyss
Iron is hovering in some restocking episode. Long steel products enjoyed a hoped-for infrastructure stimmies bounce. Flat keeps easing. CISA output rebounded in the first ten days of September. Mills are overproducing, with inventories up 5% in the period. More price falls ahead. Meanwhile, Chinese property will never bottom! Primary prices are down with too
Jobs data slams door on RBA rate cut
The only thing that may have prompted the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut rates at its next monetary policy meeting is a sharp deterioration in the labour market. Alas, Thursday’s official labour force survey for August from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) extinguished any hope of a rate cut, with the unemployment
Australia’s paralysed politics
As the rise of populist major party candidates and upstart political parties continues from London to Tokyo, many have been left wondering why Australia hasn’t seen the rise of a new third alternative. While Australia has the Greens and One Nation as third-party alternatives, they are hardly new additions to the nation’s political landscape. The
Ripple effect of Chinese EV Overinvestment
In this week’s podcast, we are digging into the overinvestment in Electric Vehicles in China, and what it means for the rest of the investment market. Join us at 12:30 today: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s54Mm4ex4r4 Can’t make it to the live series? Catch up on the content via Podcasts or our recorded Videos. Damien Klassen is Chief Investment Officer at the
Low-skilled visas flood Australia’s labour market
Australia’s migration system is flooding the nation with low-skilled workers. The following chart from Alex Joiner at IFM Investors summarises the situation, with the overwhelming majority of net migrant arrivals arriving through pathways other than skilled visas: Even leading pro-Big Australia shills Peter McDonald and Alan Gamlen admitted that Australia’s permanent migration system is unskilled
The next leg down in Aussie wages is here
Aussie wage growth has no chance of a sustained recovery. The mass immigration-led economy is, at base, a wage suppression scheme, and such macro forces will ultimately have their say. Leading indicators like the Seek Advertised Salary Index have slowed. The quarterly annualised rate is now at 3.1% and has trended lower. Other laggy indicators
Australia Vs India Vs China – The great climate change debate
On Monday, the federal government organisation the ‘Australian Climate Service’ published its latest National Risk Assessment detailing the potential impact of climate change on the nation. The report modelled scenarios in which global temperatures rose between 1.5°C and 3.0°C above pre-industrial levels out to 2050 and 2100. The Climate service warned that risks to communities,
New Zealand’s endless recession
The Reserve Bank GDP nowcast, released last Friday, forecast that New Zealand’s GDP contracted by 0.4% in Q2 2025. The Reserve Bank’s nowcast was revised lower following the final partial GDP indicators released last week, showing a sharp contraction in the manufacturing sector in Q2 and negligible growth in a range of services industries. On