I noted last week how Australia’s Albanese government seems to have copied Canada’s Trudeau government on housing and immigration. In 2022, Canada’s then-immigration minister, Sean Fraser, viewed immigration as a competition for global talent that he was determined to win. Canada has just experienced a record population increase of approximately 800,000. Despite this, Fraser declared
This is ridiculous. In the last week, analysts at NAB, Citi, Capital Economics, RBC Capital Markets and UBS have all pushed back their rate cut forecasts to May. Australian disinflation is going swimmingly. Energy rebates will be extended, leaving headline inflation well within the band all next year. This will drag down the roughly 20%
Barramunga looking North AUD/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD Gold WTI Brent Australia 200 US S&P 500 UK 100 Japan 225
The post Macro Afternoon: 21 November 2024 appeared first on MacroBusiness.
Treasurer Jim “chicken” Chalmers is warming up to spend. In a speech to parliament on Wednesday, the Treasurer said increased public expenditure had protected the nation from recession, despite economists warning it was putting upward pressure on inflation. “The economy has continued to grow, but barely … it would have been negative in the March
Former Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews announced in 2023 that the state would build 80,000 homes annually for the next ten years. Since Labor formed the government in 2014, Victoria has never built more than 70,000 new homes in a calendar year. Therefore, the 80,000 annual target necessitates a significant increase in construction activity. However, the
The Future Fund, which is one-third the size of the Australian economy, will be directed to invest in housing, security, and the green energy transition “where possible, appropriate, and consistent with strong returns”. In a joint statement, Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Finance Minister Katy Gallagher committed that “the government won’t start any drawdowns from the
Is Trump Hitler? It is a question being proffered by the left with increasing frequency. And, equally, dismissed by the right. There are parallels. Mostly in the methods of management and control. Trump’s cadre of self-absorbed nutters is easily comparable to Goering, Himmler, Goebels, Heydrich and Bormann. While this is, currently, conjecture, he’ll be playing his
Morgan Stanley with the note. Our Global Economics team expects another couple of years of ~3% Y/Y real global GDP growth. Inflation in major developed economies is still stabilizing after the Covid surge, and our team sees additional progress next year, albeit less progress than in 2024. Regionally, they expect US growth to slow in
Earlier this year, the NSW Productivity and Equality Commission (PEC) lamented that young Sydneysiders were leaving the city, forced out by high housing costs. The NSW PEC advocated easier planning rules and the widespread construction of high-rise shoebox apartments rather than the most straightforward solution of lowering net overseas migration. Net overseas migration into NSW
Australian energy is a disaster. We are trying to transition from coal to renewables with both hands tied behind our backs. The issue is neither. It is gas. The East Coast gas export cartel is driving the price unseasonably higher as we speak. If it continues much longer, off-season electricity pricing will bottom out far