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Stocks caught in Trump crossfire

January 17, 2025 - 11:30 -- Admin

The Market Ear on the Trump cross-currents for equities. The 10 year US 10 year putting in the biggest down candle in a while post the CPI numbers. First support at 4.6%, where the 21 day comes in. The 50 day is down at 4.43%. Source: Refinitiv Bond convexity CTA 1 month upside convexity is

Pilbara killer on schedule

January 17, 2025 - 11:00 -- Admin

Steel prices are continuing to show some life. Not so iron ore. CISA steel mill output for the first 10 days of January was strong. However, that is unlikely to last beyond the seasonal rebuild. RIO confirmed strong guidance (though its recent record has been shit). More to the point, RIO confirmed the Pilbara killer

Immigration climbs down from Mount Everest

January 17, 2025 - 10:00 -- Admin

December’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Update (MYEFO) upgraded Australia’s net overseas migration projection for 2024-25 from 260,000 to 340,000 (see below table). Every budget and MYEFO released by Labor since it was elected has badly underestimated Australia’s net overseas migration. Specifically: 2022-23: Began at 235,000, rose to 400,000, ended up being 535,500. 2023-24: Began at 215,000,

Macro Morning

January 17, 2025 - 09:00 -- Admin

Wall Street failed to advance on its latest surge overnight mainly due to a fall in tech stocks, led by Apple while European shares remained boisterous across most of the continent. The USD fell back against most of the undollars although Euro only advanced slightly on its new weekly high as Yen continued its own

Anthony Albanese drowns in wage lies

January 17, 2025 - 00:05 -- Admin

Last month’s Guardian’s Essential Poll said the Albanese government was doing a poor job “increasing wages and workers’ rights”. This decline in purchasing power, the flipside of the cost-of-living crisis, is a key reason why Labor is trailing the Coalition in the polls ahead of the upcoming federal election. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was busy

Macro Afternoon

January 16, 2025 - 17:30 -- Admin

Asian stock markets are somewhat mixed although local shares got a boost on a surprise uptick in the unemployment print that energised more RBA rate cut speculation. Meanwhile other FX volatility was centered around Yen that continues to firm against USD while the Australian dollar retraced back to the 62 cent level in what looks

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