SHFE didn’t panic yesterday. Dalian was not so good overnight. What does China do now with 60-100% Trump tariffs imminent and its demographic construction engine fading? We will know in a few days. It will surely have to turn more of its stimulus to domestic demand, not just derisking. However, I still don’t expect a
Bloomberg has smashed the recalcitrant RBA: Australia truly is an island. When it comes to monetary policy, the country is at risk of becoming a serious — and embarrassing — outlier. The global cycle of interest-rate cuts is well advanced and inflation looks beaten. Yet you wouldn’t know it from the words and actions of
As the world awakes to the new United Fascist States of America, US stock markets have soared alongside the USD on the Trump/GOP clean sweep while European shares retreated. The election outcome is fraught with opportunity in all risk markets with volatility likely to continue in the coming days as traders reweight the new world
The key macroeconomic data for Australia shows that this century’s immigration boom has been deleterious to the nation’s productivity and living standards. The following chart plots Australia’s long-run trend per capita GDP growth against labour productivity (GDP per hour worked) and the immigration rate (net overseas migration as a share of the population). Clearly, productivity
DXY whoa! AUD was hammered but bounced into Chinese stimmies: North Asia is now a race to the bottom: Oil and gold are stranded. The latter has a long history of up the escalaor and down the lift: Dirt hosed: Miners too: And EM: Junk is not out of the woods: As yields price out
The war of words between the Albanese government and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) over inflation and interest rates is heating up. Following last week’s decline in headline CPI, Treasurer Jim Chalmers celebrated that inflation was now within the RBA’s target range. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese told a business dinner on Wednesday that inflation
Asian stock markets have seen a big boost across the region as the US election results come in with a Trump win most likely, giving USD a big boost alongside other risk markets. Euro reversed course alongside Yen while Australian dollar has been slammed back below the 65 cent level. Oil futures are being pushed
Morgan Stanley with the note. Gauging Potential Economic Implications of Higher Tariffs Although future trade policy is heavily debated heading into the US election, our Global Economics team believes the market may still be underappreciating the degree to which higher tariffs, if implemented, could affect the US economy. They estimate that if 60% tariffs on
Markets are breaking for Trump with AUD and bonds down hard. The deciding factor in the election at this point is the unexpected flip of Virginia. Harris is doing well in the blue wall but without Virginia she will need to flip another state, unexpectedly, to win. El Trumpo 2.0 looms!
Charlie McElligott at Nomura on a post-election melt-up. Equities are resilient after last week’s mini-wobble and with “Vol leak” pressures building, while USTs are rallying significantly alongside US Dollar being hit lower….as “Harris (Gridlock)” is trending ‘hard’ in final polling, reversing some of that past month’s-worth of “Trump (Red Sweep)” hedging –premium, which is seeing