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Australia’s $51 billion international student lie

August 18, 2025 - 08:00 -- Admin

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) claims that international education is Australia’s fourth largest export, earning the country $51 billion in 2023–24. The ABS calculates this fantastical education “export” figure by summing expenditure by student visa holders on tuition fees and goods and services. In 2024-25, the ABS estimated that $30.2 billion was spent by

Why Australia’s productivity growth won’t recover

August 18, 2025 - 00:05 -- Admin

A major reason for the decline in Australia’s productivity and living standards is that Australia has grown its population rapidly via mass immigration (i.e., 8.7 million population increase this century, the fastest in the advanced world) but has failed to provide the extra workers with extra tools, machinery, and technology; extra homes for the millions

The economic week ahead

August 17, 2025 - 16:58 -- Admin

By Lucinda Jerogin, Associate Economist at CBA The RBA cut the cash rate by 25bp to 3.60% in a unanimous decision and was widely expected. The Wage Price Index printed broadly in line with expectations, rising by 0.8%/qtr in Q2 25 to be 3.4% higher annually. The unemployment rate retreated to 4.2% in July. The

Buyers bull rush Aussie property

August 17, 2025 - 11:57 -- Admin

Last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the official cash rate by 0.25% to 3.60%, the third rate cut this year. Recent research from the Australian Financial Review showed that Australian home values typically rise by double-digit rates two years after the beginning of a rate-cutting cycle. This weekend’s preliminary auction results suggested

Macro Afternoon

August 15, 2025 - 16:00 -- Admin

Asian share markets were dominated by Chinese data today with weakness across their domestic economy while Japanese GDP data came in slightly better than expected. Most markets are up as a result as Chinese traders expect more stimulus while the BOJ seems to be faring okay with its inflationary targets not pulling back growth. The

New Zealand house prices plummet

August 15, 2025 - 14:00 -- Admin

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has slashed the official cash rate (OCR) by 2.25%, with further rate cuts expected. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, the reduction in the OCR has driven down the cost of new mortgages, which should have lifted housing demand and stimulated home prices. However, home values

Why Australian house prices are two-speed

August 15, 2025 - 13:00 -- Admin

Since the COVID-19 lockdowns started in Australia in March 2020, the nation’s capital city home prices have risen at vastly different rates. As illustrated below using PropTrack data, dwelling values in Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide have soared at similar rates, increasing by around 90% since March 2020 across the three markets. Sydney dwelling values have

Bubble trouble

August 15, 2025 - 12:30 -- Admin

The Market Ear on bubble trouble. Pushing it SPX trying to break above the Bollinger band. Not a reason to sell itself, as markets can stay in the upper Bollinger band for longer than most think possible, but still worth watching. Source: Bloomberg/GS Concentration “Growing index concentration and narrowing market breadth has increased downside risk

Indebted households can no longer power the economy

August 15, 2025 - 12:00 -- Admin

Record public spending has recently powered the Australian economy. At the same time, Australian households have exhibited recessionary behaviour, with real per capita household consumption tracking negative for seven consecutive quarters on an annual basis, down 2.4% from its peak. The decline in household spending, which usually accounts for about 60% of GDP growth, is

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