The Market Ear with the MAGA boom. Making money on MAGA Hedge Funds are enjoying the “bump from Trump” – ride. Hedge funds gained 2.4% between 11/1 and 11/7, driven by beta of +2.0% and alpha of +0.4% (who needs alpha when it is a bull market…?). Net leverage increased by 4% to 59%. This
The Chinese CPI is going nowhere but down. In October 2024 , the national consumer price index rose by 0.3% year-on – year . Among them, the urban price rose by 0.2% and the rural price rose by 0.3% ; food prices rose by 2.9% and non-food prices fell by 0.3% ; consumer goods prices rose by 0.2% and service prices rose by 0.4% . On average from January to October , the national
Rebar held up Friday. While iron ore did not. More Chinese yawnulus. From ANZ. The National People’s Congress (NPC) standing committee meeting concluded with a large-scale debt swap program as we expected. However, the lack of direct fiscal stimulus implies that the policymakers would leave policy room for the impact off Trump 2.0 later. Key
The Trump agenda is a winning formula Downunder. Seal the border to restore wage growth, end housing shortages, and repair productivity growth. Income tax cuts to revitalise households. Corporate tax cuts for all businesses except mining, which gets big hikes to pay for it. Drill, baby, drill, while killing the gas cartel (OK, that one
The post US election euphoria seems to be dissipating, not helped by the somewhat disappointing Chinese stimulus outcomes on Friday which has led to another reweighting on risk markets. Wall Street went it alone on Friday night with some small advances while European stocks pulled back further alongside oil prices and the Australian dollar as
My latest interview on Professor David Flint’s Save the Nation program explained why Australia’s productivity and living standards are declining. The interview discusses a range of topics, including: The drivers of Australia’s poor productivity growth. Australia’s record per capita recession. Why Australia’s economy faces a low-growth future. The actual cause of Australia’s housing shortage. Below
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest Statement of Monetary Policy (SoMP) noted that the increase in Australian housing credit and prices to record highs is “unusual” given the tightest monetary conditions since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. “Unusually for a rate tightening period, housing credit growth has picked up over the past year”,
This is wrong. Apostle Funds Management portfolio manager John Barrasso says having Trump in the White House will keep mortgage rates higher for longer, with no immediate relief from inflation. “A strong American economy and a stable or improving Australian one is likely to result in a higher level of inflation than the RBA expected,”
DXY is a bull at a gate. AUD is back at the line of control. CFTC AUD positioning remains bizarrely bullish as the currency is murdered. This is very bearish. CNY and AUD are the world’s worst bet. Stay wary of gold and oil. And dirt. Big miners were hosed. EM too. Junk is back.
The Westpac card tracker is not happy. The Westpac Card Tracker Index* declined further over the last fortnight, falling -0.7pts to 136.2 for the week ended November 2. With the full October results now on hand, Q4 seems to have begun on a weak footing. The index has fallen for four consecutive weeks, a result