Yesterday’s GDP figure has markets very upset. There is nothing like a strong economy to kill overvalued securities prices these days. They needn’t fear. The Aussie consumer is not “back”. Yesterday’s GDP was boosted by one-offs, and the gas cartel will take care of the rest of the year. Household consumption grew 0.9% in the
Australia’s home building sector appears to be one giant contradiction. On one hand, Australia possesses the strongest level of new dwelling completions per capita in the Anglosphere and one of the highest levels in the entire developed world. In fact, Australia has been in an absolute ascendancy over its Anglosphere rivals for the last 40
The ferrous complex continues its great levitation. At least, iron ore does. Steel is stuffed. Ask yourself, why are steel prices tumbling when production is shut in for Beijing’s warmongering parade? Too much steel, with more coming when the parade ends, as the last of the margin expansion of the past few months is devoured.
This week, the Albanese government announced that the permanent migrant intake would remain at 185,000 places in 2025-26, with 132,200 places set aside for ‘skilled migrants’. When the 20,000 humanitarian intake and 3,000 Pacific Engagement Visas are added, Australia’s permanent migrant intake has effectively been set at 208,000. It is important to point out that,
The following chart from Justin Fabo at Antipodean Macro shows that Australia’s productivity growth has lagged other advanced nations since 2018. Wednesday’s Q2 national accounts release confirmed that the nation’s productivity remains stillborn, with non-farm labour productivity rising 0.3% in Q2 but was slightly lower over the year and remained around 2017 levels. While
Overnight saw the USD fall back as the latest jobs opening and Fed Beige Book painted a further slowing picture of the US economy as the Trump regime’s sales taxes, grift and general lack of ability in operating a modern government continue to take a hold. Wall Street liked it nonetheless as did bond markets
DXY is down. AUD is up, though the trend is a mess. CNY down. Gold to the moon! Metals mixed. Big bear is still in there. EM yawn. Junk still trending better. Whoa! US short-end yields are breaking down, long sticky. Feeding stocks. So much for bond vigilantes. We’ve been JOLTED instead. The number of
The 2025 federal election campaign saw both sides of politics cynically propose policies to pump homebuyer demand and prices. Both sides also explicitly stated that they want to see Australian house prices rise at a ‘sustainable rate’ from already record-high levels. Neither side genuinely wants to “solve” the housing affordability crisis because that would require
Asian share markets are seeing a broad selloff as the riskoff mood in the wake of bond sales continues to dominate the marketplace as we await Friday’s NFP print from the US. The USD is lifting slightly after being against a wall of selling against the majors but all eyes on are US Treasuries as
New Zealand’s economy and housing market remain in a funk. As illustrated below by Justin Fabo from Antipodean Macro, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Kiwi-GDP nowcasting model suggests that the nation’s GDP may have declined in Q2 2025 by 0.3%. New Zealand’s labour market is also suffering its weakest conditions in a decade outside