DXY faded last night: AUD held on: JPY is unwinding more carry: Oil is screwed: Another metals pimple bursts: Big miners are going to retest 2022 lows: EM has a nice head and shoulders top: But junk is still pretty happy: US yields are breaking down: Stocks look precariously double-topped: Last night’s key data was
Australian home builders are in a world of pain, as evidenced by nearly 3,000 construction firms collapsing over the past year: This week, leading Victorian builder Grandeur Homes collapsed only weeks after claiming that “we are thriving”. On 21 August, news.com.au was told: “Grandeur Homes is solvent and is not in financial difficulty. The suggestion
Leading baby boomer commentator David Koch told Sydney radio presenter Ben Fordham that young Sydneysiders should adjust their lavish lifestyles if they want to enjoy the same housing benefits as their parents. David Koch: A younger generation wants to achieve a level of lifestyle like their parents. But then when they go out on their
The Q2 national accounts release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) was another shocker. It revealed that Australia’s aggregate real GDP growth fell to only 1.0%, which was the lowest growth rate since the 1991 recession, outside of the pandemic: Worse, Australia’s real per capita GDP growth declined for a sixth consecutive quarter and
A sea of red across Asian share markets as they respond to the overnight rout on Wall Street as growth concerns from China and the US through their respective manufacturing PMI surveys combined with bond market volatility is not helping risk markets overall. Commodities are taking the biggest hits but the Australian dollar remains surprisingly
Stability leads to instability is China’s problem. Central planning has for so long hit growth targets via stimulus that its economy is now a debt-saturated laggard that spends so much repaying interest on unproductive assets that it can’t grow. Nowhere is this more obvious than local governments, so long the engine of outsized growth, and
About time. I’ve been humiliating Goldman’s commodity calls for two years. Now it has fully embraced the MB view. More selective, less constructive. While our 2024 Deficits Basket performed well this year, a softening of cyclical support to commodities leads us towards a more selective tactical approach to commodity investing. To be clear, we strongly
The always good fun Albert Edwards at Societe General. We have always exhorted our readers to watch Japan closely as it has consistently been a forerunner of major market moves (eg the late 1990s tech bubble started to deflate first in Japan). Until the implosion of the yen carry trade in early August, there was
In the short term, gas imports into eastern Australia may lower prices. There is such a glut of global gas coming that the price ought to crash. Goldman: Europe’s scars from the 2022 energy crisis have yetto fully heal, as illustrated by its still depressed industrial activity, and its vulnerability to natural gasand electricity price
Australia’s Q2 GDP was worse than economists expected, growing by only 0.2% over the quarter to be up only 1.0% year-on-year: The result missed analysts’ expectations of a 0.3% quarterly rise. It meant that Australia’s annual GDP growth rate fell to its lowest level since December 1991, outside of the pandemic. Australia’s population continues to