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AI capex bubble ready to pop?

March 27, 2025 - 10:00 -- Admin

The Market Ear is still looking short-term. SPX technicals SPX reversed right on the 21 day moving average. Not overly surprising given the recent squeeze. Support: 5600, resistance: 5850. Maybe we just need to range for a bit… Source: Refinitiv NASDAQ technicals Also reversing right on the 21 day. Support: 19600, resistance: 20800. Source: Refinitiv

Macro Morning

March 27, 2025 - 09:00 -- Admin

As the April 2 deadline the ultimate round of US tariff’s beckons, the Fanta Fuhrer couldn’t help shoot early with a blanket 25% car tariff, thus dooming the domestic US car industry as the world will shift to boycott US made vehicles. Great work Donny! Trump’s Tariff Tirade beckons. European shares were able to rebound

Has the Australian job market turned “calamitous”?

March 27, 2025 - 07:00 -- Admin

Earlier this month, Roy Morgan released its shadow labour market report, which reported a significant increase in unemployment to 11.5% in February, with underutilisation (i.e., unemployment plus underemployment) surging to 21.7%. Roy Morgan’s underutilisation rate is the highest on record outside of the pandemic. Roy Morgan CEO Michelle Levine addressed the Mumbrella Retail Marketing Summit

Australian property: an $11 trillion productivity drain

March 27, 2025 - 00:05 -- Admin

Data released this month by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that the total value of Australia’s dwelling stock hit a record high of $11,032.2 billion at the end of 2024, with the average dwelling valued at $976,800. The hyperinflation of home values helps to explain why Australian households are ranked among the wealthiest

Macro Afternoon

March 26, 2025 - 16:30 -- Admin

Asian stock markets are doing slightly better today given the mixed result overnight although S&P futures are looking more robust given more Trump talk about caving in on tariffs, although who knows what will actually happen as another distraction is likely soon given the recent intelligence foul up by half his Cabinet. The USD is

The rotten fishead confesses

March 26, 2025 - 14:30 -- Admin

The fish rots from the head, they say, and Michael Stutchbury’s destruction of the AFR is great case in point. Today, he confesses. How about this? Australian supermarket shoppers have been hit by significantly lower grocery price rises than if they were living in the UK, the US, Canada or New Zealand. Yes, lower price

American stocks are back!

March 26, 2025 - 14:00 -- Admin

The Market Ear argues for the reverse pivot today. Europe vs US is done 1. Valuation gap closed… SAP on 40x, GOOG on 18.5x, MSFT on 29x. Mag7 valuation now looking ‘cheap’ vs historic 2. Europe benefited from exodus from US tech , US tech as a sell is significantly less obvious here 3. Market

Bowen blows billions on green hydrogen fantasy

March 26, 2025 - 13:00 -- Admin

Last week, the Albanese government pledged over $800 million in production subsidies to a green hydrogen development in remote Western Australia. This is part of an $8.7 billion federal government war chest to create incentives for green hydrogen. Labor’s Future Made in Australia (FMIA) plan, announced in 2024, provided a budget allocation of $6.7 billion

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