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Articles from MacroBusiness

Why does the Coalition support property money laundering?

February 5, 2025 - 10:00 -- Admin

One has to ask why the Coalition seems to endorse the laundering of ‘dirty’ money into Australian property. Last year, the Coalition opposed legislation that included real estate agents, lawyers, and accountants in Australia’s anti-money laundering and terror financing regulatory net. These global “Tranche 2” anti-money laundering (AML) rules were first promised by the former

Fake Fortress America takes shape

February 5, 2025 - 09:30 -- Admin

Yesterday I found Trump’s opening salvos in his trade wars confusing. Applying 25% tariffs to Mexico and Canada for the same ostensible reason—fentanyl and illegal immigrants—made no sense given it only comes through Mexico. I theorised that the Canadian add-on was personal to Trump in light of Justin Trudeau’s poor relationship with him. Thinking it

Macro Morning

February 5, 2025 - 09:00 -- Admin

Risk markets bounced back overnight despite the Chinese tariffs coming into effect as Wall Street rebounded alongside European bourses as the overbought USD was pushed back by all the undollars. The latest economic news from the US and solid earnings reports overshadowed the Trump Trade War with the Federal Reserve still expected to cut once

Australian dollar rout is over

February 5, 2025 - 05:38 -- Admin

DXY reversed. AUD is printing multiple hammer candles. CNY reopens today after the LNY break. Gold is massively overbought. Dirt having another crack. Miners meh. EM meh. Junk meh. Yields meh. Stocks only go up. If the last few days are an example of Trump tariff objectives, then what has the market to be afraid

Is the consumer recession over?

February 5, 2025 - 00:05 -- Admin

Australians have suffered their longest recession in modern history, with real per capita GDP declining for seven consecutive quarters as of Q3 2024. This decline in per capita GDP has been driven by the household sector, where consumption fell for six of the past seven quarters. This week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has

Macro Afternoon

February 4, 2025 - 17:00 -- Admin

As Trump gets outmaneuvered by both Canada and Mexico, a new front in the trade war opened up against Chyna today which retaliated immediately in kind. Currency markets have reverted almost back to their pre-North American trade war starting points while gold continues to hold at record highs. Meanwhile the latest local consumer confidence figures

RBA holds key to Labor’s re-election

February 4, 2025 - 14:00 -- Admin

I have argued repeatedly that the Albanese government desperately needs the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates to bolster its re-election chances. The record decline in real household incomes and the ongoing cost-of-living crisis have negatively impacted Labor’s polling position. Therefore, Labor needs the RBA to cut interest rates to regain voters’

China’s got a voucher for that

February 4, 2025 - 13:00 -- Admin

Emperor Xi and his CCP cronies have discovered a new and exciting way of pretending that the Chinese economy is rebalancing to consumption: vouchers. The first of the vouchers was an extra day for the LNY holiday to boost travel. It worked! But they forget to give them a cocktail voucher for when they go

Australians are fed up with unaffordable housing

February 4, 2025 - 12:30 -- Admin

Gallup released a survey in January, conducted across 140 countries with responses from 14,000 people (including 1,000 in Australia), showing that Australians are fed up with unaffordable housing. Only 22% of Australians were satisfied with home availability in 2024, a record low. In contrast, 76% expressed unhappiness, a discontent rarely seen in high-income countries. Only

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