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BOE: China is “not going to bail us out this time”

February 13, 2019 - 10:16 -- Admin

Bank of England chief Mark Carney has some bad news for Australia, warning that: “(China) are not going to bail us out this time, I absolutely agree,” Carney said when asked about the ability of the world’s second-biggest economy to compensate for a slowdown in richer nations. But the most likely outcome was that the

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Melbourne west land mogul pulls plug

February 13, 2019 - 10:00 -- Admin

Via AFR: Colourful Melbourne property speculator and local councillor Intaj Khan has put a portfolio of four housing sites in the city’s west on the market with expectations they could sell for almost $60 million. Cr Khan, who was found guilty of eight breaches of his duties as a Wyndham City councillor last year and

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Gittins drags RBA towards depression economics rate cut (or vice versa)

February 13, 2019 - 09:45 -- Admin

Missed this earlier in the week. Ross Gittins is helping lift Australian economic discourse for once: [A rate cut] isn’t [imminent]. It isn’t because, as he made plain in a speech on Wednesday – and reiterated in the statement on monetary policy on Friday – he remains confident the economy has slowed a bit, but no worse. His revised

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Why China will ‘grow old’ before it ‘gets rich’

February 13, 2019 - 09:30 -- Admin

By Leith van Onselen I have noted previously how China’s economy is facing stiff headwinds from an ageing population (see here, here, here, and here). Essentially, China’s ageing problem stems from its ‘one child policy’, which was brought into effect in the early-1970s and is credited with preventing around 400 million births from 1979 to

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Fake news: Property investors charging back into market

February 13, 2019 - 09:15 -- Admin

Get ready for an avalanche of this fake news, via the AFR: Property investors are chasing falling prices, bargain-basement fixed rates, rising rental yields and bigger discounts as they rush to beat a Labor government’s negative gearing changes, agents and analysts said. Anecdotal accounts from real estate agents, representing sellers, and brokers’ agents, representing buyers,

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I hope ANZ doesn’t believe its own economist

February 13, 2019 - 09:06 -- Admin

It shouldn’t because he’s talking nonsense. Via Bluenotes: The fall in Australian house prices in 2018 was the largest since the financial crisis. But the implications for the broader economy are more important. It’s even possible that weaker house prices and a weaker economy combine into a negative feedback loop (although in my view this is unlikely). “All previous periods of declining

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Daily iron ore price update (bust)

February 13, 2019 - 09:00 -- Admin

Iron ore prices for February 12, 2019: Spot is tumbling. Paper fell further overnight. The panic is ebbing. Clyde Russell has a nice little piece on where we’re headed: Firstly, Chinese steel mills can substitute higher-quality iron ore with lower grades, which are likely to be more readily available, but this will result in lower

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Macro Morning

February 13, 2019 - 08:43 -- Admin

By Chris Becker  Risk markets were buoyed last night by another government shutdown aversion and hope that the US/China trade talks will amount to something, as rationale repairs Trumps ridiculous policies. The USD reversed course as a result, with both Pound and Euro surging, while US Treasury yields lifted again to a new weekly high.

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Australian dollar lifts with global stock surge

February 13, 2019 - 06:49 -- Admin

DXY fell away last night as EUR caught a bid for no reason and CNY bounced: That was enough to drive the Australian dollar higher against DMs: It was mixed against EMs: Gold firmed: Oil too: Base metals said “no”: Big miners were mixed: EM stocks flew: With US and EM junk: Treasuries got caned:

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Coalition and friends should crowd fund a new Tampa

February 13, 2019 - 05:49 -- Admin

Lots of hysteria around borders today as the Coalition friends set up for another Tampa election. Paul Kelly personifies the neurosis nicely: Labor has changed its stance, its policy and its heart on border protection. This is the enduring ­element in the present dramas. It is high-risk politics and misconceived policy by Bill Shorten that

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