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Articles from MacroBusiness

Is a federal election imminent?

October 19, 2018 - 09:00 -- Admin

The word we’re getting from our public service contacts is that preparations are underway for pre-election “caretaker” mode. This may not be indicative of any intention of the Government to call an early poll. But there is this: Kerryn Phelps has left open the prospect of voting against the government in a motion of no

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Macro Morning

October 19, 2018 - 08:30 -- Admin

By Chris Becker The correction is back as US stocks led the selloff overnight, Treasury yields came back slightly while the USD rose against most the majors as risk sentiment retreated back to the mean, with Yen getting the safe haven bid. Sadly for the Saudis, oil prices continue to crater with WTI and Brent

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Australia dollar, global stocks hammered on policy risk

October 19, 2018 - 07:21 -- Admin

Volatility continues. DXY took off as EUR and CNY swooned: AUD was thumped against the USD but lifted against EUR: EM forex rolled over: Gold held on despite the rising DXY. EUR fracturing is its best friend: Oil fell: Base metals fell: Miners fell: EM stocks got hosed: Junk fell: Treasuries were bid: Bunds were

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Wentworth chaos engulfs government

October 19, 2018 - 06:19 -- Admin

Barnaby leads us off, at Domainfax: Former Nationals leaders have warned Barnaby Joyce to abandon a growing push to reinstate him as deputy prime minister while also urging federal MPs to “save the ship” by rejecting the leadership turmoil that has taken hold in Canberra. Tim Fischer and John Anderson, who served as deputy prime

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UBS says what dodgy RBA won’t

October 19, 2018 - 00:15 -- Admin

Here’s what Deputy Chairsatan Guy Debelle said about weak wages this week: As we have stated many times, we expect that will lead to a gradual increase in wages growth and, in turn, inflation. There are a number of uncertainties around the extent and timing of the decline in the unemployment rate and the pick-up in wages

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CoreLogic Weekly Australian house price update: heavy losses

October 19, 2018 - 00:15 -- Admin

By Leith van Onselen In the week ended 18 October 2018, the CoreLogic 5-city daily dwelling price index, which covers the five major capital city markets, declined another 0.19%: Values fell across in three major markets and rose in two: So far in 2018, home values have declined by 3.72%, with only Brisbane and Adelaide

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Youth labour market continues to soften

October 19, 2018 - 00:10 -- Admin

By Leith van Onselen Yesterday’s ABS labour force release for August revealed a softening Australian youth labour market – i.e. those aged 15 to 24 years old – with both full-time and part-time jobs growth weakening. While the trend headline unemployment rate fell to 11.16% in September from 11.24% in August: Total employment growth for

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Links 19 October 2018

October 19, 2018 - 00:01 -- Admin

Global Macro / Markets / Investing: Everything You Need to Know About Capitalism – Teen Vogue Bond Traders Are Paid Big to Dump U.S. Treasuries and Go Abroad – Bloomberg Don’t mention the oil price – U.S. legal threat prompts change at OPEC – Reuters As Easy Money Wanes, Investors Scramble to Adapt – WSJ

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Macro Afternoon

October 18, 2018 - 17:08 -- Admin

The bounce in equities has been shortlived with only the Australian market not dipping into the red this afternoon, with local employment data keeping the bears away for another day. A weaker Yuan fix plus reduced confidence has seen Chinese stocks selloff sharply while gold is holding on, other undollar assets are falling heading into

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Shane Oliver: house prices to fall 20%

October 18, 2018 - 14:43 -- Admin

By Leith van Onselen The property downgrades continue with AMP chief economist, Shane Oliver, now predicting a 20% peak-to-trough decline in Sydney and Melbourne dwelling values: At the start of August, Oliver said he expected price falls in Sydney and Melbourne to max out at 15% from peak to trough. He now expects price falls

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