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More ‘risk on’ to go

December 4, 2023 - 10:20 -- Admin

So says The Market Ear positioning. This does not look like the top Here are all the latest updated sentiment & positioning indicators. They very clearly do not signal a top. It is rare to see so many of these indicators showing the same thing. The only hope for bears is that this analysis is

Immigration surge pushes rent inflation higher

December 4, 2023 - 10:00 -- Admin

Last week, immigration influencers like Abul Rizvi were claiming that Australia has reached ‘peak migration’: However, late last week the Department of Home Affairs released temporary visa data for October, which suggested that Australia’s net overseas migration (NOM) has continued to rise. The below chart from Justin Fabo at Macquarie Group summarises the situation: As

Evergrande obliteration immiment

December 4, 2023 - 09:40 -- Admin

There is zero indication of a turn in Chiense property: Zero prospect of funding for developers: Evergrande is still paving the road to hell: Two years after its default marked a key moment in China’s property crisis, the world’s most indebted developer may be heading for another bleak milestone: liquidation. China Evergrande Group faces a

Macro Morning

December 4, 2023 - 09:00 -- Admin

Friday night saw some soft-ish comments from Fed Chair Powell force bond yields and the USD lower, giving Wall Street a bump up higher instead. The latest ISM manufacturing survey was also softer than expected and remains in contraction mode. The Australian dollar burst out to a new five month high, pushing well above the

Aussie housing bulls turn bears

December 4, 2023 - 00:05 -- Admin

CoreLogic’s daily dwelling values index shows that house price momentum across Sydney and Melbourne has slowed materially since the RBA’s Melbourne Cup Day rate hike, which has also pulled down value growth at the 5-city aggregate level: This downturn has been matched by the auction market, with November seeing final clearance rates fall sharply across

Watercooler reads and videos

December 4, 2023 - 00:01 -- Admin

International Reads: The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates 6 times in 2024 as the economy shows clear signs of cooling down, ING says – Yahoo Mexico’s minimum wage will rise by 20% next year, to about $14.25 per day – AP News Gas prices drop more than 60 days in a row. The median

RBA wages war on younger Australians

December 3, 2023 - 00:05 -- Admin

On Thursday, I gave our weekly Treasury of Common Sense interview on Radio 2GB with Luke Grant. This week’s interview covered the latest inflation results and the interest rate outlook. I also explained how the RBA’s war on inflation is effectively a war on younger Australians. They are bearing the brunt of the interest rate

Australian dollar turns pure gold

December 2, 2023 - 08:02 -- Admin

DXY was down Friday night: AUS is arcing towards 70 cents: Gold is at an all-time high: Copper is bid: Miners gapped: Very atypically, EM sat it out: Though junk is pointing it all up: As the end of cycle bear steepening is here: Even stocks managed a half-bid: Classic reflation dynamics as the US