Macro Afternoon: 9 January 2025
View from Red Rock Lookout, Alvie VIC AUD/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD Gold WTI Brent Australia 200 US S&P 500 UK 100 Japan 225 Easy Listening
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Macro Afternoon
Asian stocks are generally lower due to subdued Chinese inflation numbers and continued hesitation around Trumpian macro machinations with the USD regaining strength against all the undollars again. The poor showing on Wall Street overnight is likely to continue with volatility around interest rates likely to spike with a number of Fed speeches to watch
Indian stampede to deliver February rate cut?
The ANZ is getting dovish. The November monthly CPI indicator points to downside risk to our and the RBA’s Q4 trimmed mean CPI forecasts (both 0.7% q/q and 3.4% y/y). This raises the probability of a February rate cut, although the resilience in the labour market (noted in the RBA’s December minutes from 24 December)
MB Fund Podcast: 2025 Predictions
Join us in this week’s podcast as Nucleus Wealth’s Chief Investment Officer, Damien Klassen, have a look at a range of different predictions for 2025 and assess their likelihood and effect. Can’t make it to the live series? Catch up on the content via Podcasts or our recorded Videos. Damien Klassen is Chief Investment Officer at the Macrobusiness Fund,
Gas cartel owns both sides of politics
The news for Australians over Xmas was mixed in reference to energy. Local gas spot prices fell sharply, even though they are still far above anything we might call rational. There is no relief in international prices, either, so the high likelihood is prices will spike again here soon. The outlook for gas prices is
Affordability ceiling caps rental inflation
After capital city asking rents soared by more than 40% since the pandemic, rental inflation appears to have hit an affordability ceiling. New rental data published by PropTrack shows that national and capital city median weekly advertised rents increased by 1.6% over Q4 2024. National rental growth also decelerated to 6.9% over 2024, down from
Stock bears growl
My basic thesis for a major AI bubble has so far played out well. But, at this stage, we appear either at the peak of such or poised to correct within the trend. The Market Ear has more. Massive MOVE Bond volatility, MOVE, is up substantially since mid December. Note we closed above the “psychological”
Yes folks, China is Japan, only much worse
There is some good news about Chinese property. Last year’s save has put a floor under sales for now. The further west you go, the worse it gets. Price falls have slowed. Inventory has eased. And completions keep falling with more ahead. There is little sign of an enduring rebound but at least some kind
2025 is the year of iron ore doom
Iron ore spot is hovering around $97 as it chases relentlessly weak rebar futures lower. This is much weaker than I expected through New Year. There is a great deal of tariff frontrunning going on which is supporting Chinese steel exports. As well, seasonal tailwinds are also very strong. But, instead, here we are in
Australian dollar deploys a parachute
DXY is near new highs. AUD is dangling its feet over critical support. CNY looks ready to crash. I see no reason for an oil bounce, but if it comes, it will aid DXY. Dirt is caput. Likewise miners. Xi’s big rally is a laugh a minute. Junk spreads are choking the bulls. As the