An outstanding note from Michael Hartnett at BofA beautifully captures 2025 dynamics. The Biggest Picture: Treasuries entering 6th year of 3rd Great Bond Bear Market of past 240 years (Chart2); global shift to populism, rising US government debt (set to hit $40tn on 6th Feb’26, exactly 400 days into Trump 2.0), inflationary central banks; recession
Cartel King should be sacked. The Australian Government will not activate the Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism (ADGSM) for the April to June 2025 quarter. The Minister for Resources’ decision was informed by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s (ACCC) December 2024 interim gas inquiry report and additional information on the Western Australian gas market.
Bloomberg loves a good old Chinese booster. China said it has sufficient fiscal firepower to respond to external challenges, vowing to better execute pro-growth measures ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the White House later this month. The country has “ample fiscal policy room and tools to deal with new domestic and external problems,” Vice Finance
Wall Street reopened on Friday night but I’m sure most traders would have wanted a long weekend instead as the latest US non-farm payroll aka unemployment print came in stronger than expected, pushing USD higher against almost everything while stocks lost significant ground across both sides of the Atlantic. With no one willing to bet
The past few years have seen Australian households sink into a protracted recession. The Q3 national accounts, released last month, showed that real per capita GDP had declined for a record seven consecutive quarters. This decline in GDP has been driven by the household sector, which has experienced a record 8.4% fall in real per
DoloresEsmeralda Bautista · MB Radio January 2025 Deep T Economy Policy Society Final A January 2025 Discussion with Deep T, which starts with a look at who is wearing the hit from a slowing and two speed economy and who is dining out on it. Takes a peek at the options the RBA
DXY is going to challenge the 2022 high. EUR is headed to parity. AUD took out its 2022 low, is taking out its GFC low, and the COVID low is the next target. Oil took off on tightened Russian sanctions. Even more upside for DXY. Dirt popped on more Chinese yawnulus. Miners less so. Xi’s
International US labor market exits 2024 with strong job gains, drop in unemployment rate – Reuters BofA bets on a potential Fed rate hike after jobs report, top Wall-St brokers revise forecasts – Reuters UK debt market sell-off threatens to push up mortgage costs – Guardian US job market soars past expectations in last
Asian stocks are lower across the board without a lead from Wall Street that was closed overnight and in response to some PBOC bond shenanigans while currency markets were somewhat subdued as we all await for tonight’s NFP print. The Australian dollar remained below the 62 cent level as interest rate cut predictions continue to
Westpac says maybe. Retail sales posted another solid rise in November, up 0.8%mth. While annual growth is at 3.0%yr, nominal sales have tracked a 6% annual pace since April. Black Friday sales provided a clear boost to non food sectors. The November result likely understates this boost given the later timing of the event in