The Reserve Bank of New Zealand this week left the official cash rate on hold at an overly restrictive 5.50%. However, in its commentary accompanying its decision, the Reserve Bank took a dovish view, suggesting that it is preparing to cut rates in the near future. In particular, the Reserve Bank noted that New Zealand’s
The dying days of the Biden Administration have coughed up some honesty: In a first for any US administration, Dr Campbell told The Australian that China was actively seeking to establish a military base in the South Pacific. …“They’re looking across the Pacific,” Dr Campbell said. “This is something where we’re never going to be
Albo’s energy superidiot is in fine form today as gas prices resume their climb north of his $12Gj price floor: And NEM prices follow suit, now at an all-time QMA of $153MWh, outside of wartime: Apparently, this qualified as an “easing” of the crisis: The east coast gas market is well placed to endure a
The latest Melbourne Institute survey showed that actual wage growth remained subdued in June: Expected wage growth over the next 12 months is also subdued: Whereas inflation expectations have also fallen sharply, pointing to slower wage growth ahead: The actual and expected slowing in wage growth makes sense in the context of the collapse in
The following chart from Justin Fabo at Antipodean Macro shows that Australia’s unemployment rate of 4% is especially low when compared with other high debt, high income nations: This comes despite household consumption spending tanking and a grinding per capita recession. The major factor behind Australia’s labour market outperformance likely relates to the National Disability
CBA’s latest Household Spending Insights (HSI) report contained the following chart tracking household spending across home ownership status: As you can see, aggregate spending by renters has lagged behind their home owning counterparts since late 2022, with the difference growing over the past year. In the year to June 2024, spending by renters declined by
The last few months have seen a vicious backlash to the Albanese government’s proposed caps on international students. For example, immigration influencer Abul Rizvi described the caps as a “recipe for chaos”, whereas Universities Australia Chief Executive Officer Luke Sheehy labelled the caps “short-sighted and politically expedient”, as well as economically damaging. Amid the noise
The Market Ear on a gathering storm for AI. AI can trade down too The AI trade is under increasing scrutiny. The average stock involved in the infrastructure build-out of AI has returned 26% YTD, but stocks with enabled revenues fell by 19% between February and May. Goldman says that investors are increasingly concerned about
Steel and iron ore futures both popped a little yesterday as we approach the Third Plenum next week: Dalian was similar: Coking coal: This price action appears purely tactical to me. Iron ore could and should be $10 lower just to restore margins to mills. Let alone $20 to begin squeezing high cost producers. In
DXY got spanked last night: AUD popped but dropped: North Asia took off: Oil and gold up: Base metals sold on deflation: Miners meh: EM rocket: Junk a bit: With US yields finally break the uptrend? Stocks sold the first cut: JPM wraps the US CPI: Sticky inflation is coming unglued The Jue CPI report