The big one tonight is US inflation. Citi takes a look. Inflation data are quickly taking a backseat to labor market data in terms of relevance for Fed policy decisions, but with an inconclusive August employment report, August CPI data could be impactful for the probability of a 25bp or 50bp rate cut on September
Labor is all about cronies all of the time: Mining giant BHP has entered the political war between the resources sector and the Albanese government, defending its role in the Australian economy and claiming the amount of tax it paid last financial year was equal to half the entire annual funding of the public hospital
It appears the Kamala Harris polling honeymoon is over: It is across the board: Betting markets have Trump ahead again: Swing states are too close to call: All a bit odd given what is happening to oil. In my view, the debate is all Harris’s to lose. Everybody knows Trump. She needs to nail it
The hostility the Grattan Institute has shown VIC on energy policy bespeaks a deep hatred of the state. First, back in 2013, Grattan recommended that QLD be allowed to export all of its gas without domestic reservation. This was always going to be worst for VIC, given it is cold and needs heating, and we
The latest NAB business survey, released on Tuesday, revealed that Australia’s labour market has continued to soften. As illustrated in the following charts from Justin Fabo at Antipodean Macro, reported hiring by Australian businesses declined in August to be around average: The trend rise in capacity utilisation also points to an ongoing rise in the
I have warned repeatedly that the Grattan Institute’s immigration “research” and work program is funded by the pro-Big Australia Scanlon Foundation, which was founded by real estate entrepreneur and rich lister Peter Scanlon: As John Masanauskas from the Herald-Sun explained in 2009 (link no longer active): MAJOR investor and former Elders executive Peter Scanlon hardly
The RBA really should give up trying to predict the future. It doesn’t have the brain power for it. After weeks of the central bank telling us on every occasion it will not cut rates this year, along comes an oil crash: For Australia, this has the bonus of pressuring the gas cartel at the
In a turn up for the books, steel rose yesterday while iron ore fell: Mad Dalian is at new closing lows this morning: As is coking coal: The trigger may have been Chinese trade data which had soft iron ore imports on the month (and still rising inventories): And a rebound in steel exports: Crashing
I noted on Monday how first home buyers were being crowded-out by investors and upgraders: The relative weakness of first home buyer demand is attributable to stretched affordability, reflected in the average loan size for first home buyers being well below upgraders and investors: Housing Minister Clare O’Neil posted on Twitter (X) that one in
An unsettled risk complex overnight in the absence of economic events but looking through to tonight’s all-important US CPI print and probably just as volatile Presidential debate. Oil prices slumped to a three year low while Wall Street pressed forward with its rebound, albeit only led by tech stocks. European markets failed to follow through