In June 2024, AMP chief economist Shane Oliver posted the following chart showing that Australia’s housing shortage was about to surpass 200,000 dwellings: Oliver explained via Twitter (X) that “underlying demographic demand (driven by strong population growth) continues to run well ahead of new housing supply (constrained by capacity and cost issues, etc.), and is
Time for more yawnzooka as Chinese property falls into a tariff hole. Yawnulus fading. Sales too. Inventory still drawing. As completions keep falling. Not much good here. More yawnulus incoming. And it had better hurry. Morgan Stanley. Our Asia Research team’s latest AlphaWise survey of ~2,000 consumers in China (conducted April 8-11, immediately after the
It is the unsinkable metal ore despite falling steel prices. Recent GDP data was OK but what’s coming isn’t. Goldman. Despite a sequential deceleration from last Q4, year-over-year real GDP growth came in at 5.4% in Q1, higher than consensus expectations. With exports jumping 12.4% yoy, industrial production climbing 7.7% yoy, and retail sales rising
Aussie retail sales have been structurally weak, falling in per capita terms over the past two years. Discretionary ‘brick-and-mortar’ retailers have suffered the most, losing market share to online giants such as Amazon, Temu, and Shein. Amazon joined the Australian market in December 2017 and has quickly expanded its presence. Amazon Prime offers competitive pricing
The Climate Council claims that Australians are paying $30 billion more on insurance than they were a decade ago, while premiums have risen at more than twice the average rate of inflation over that time. Insurance companies have incurred losses averaging $4.5 billion a year over the past five years due to extreme weather events,
Australia offers some of the world’s most generous post-study work rights for international students, as illustrated in the table below. These generous post-study work rights are coveted by “students” from South Asia, who value post-study work rights and opportunities for permanent residency above most other factors. Australia has experienced an explosion in graduate (485) visa
Via S&P comes the Aussie flash PMI. Flash Australia PMI Composite Output Index(1): 51.4 (Mar: 51.6). 2-month low. Flash Australia Services PMI Business Activity Index(2): 51.4 (Mar: 51.6). 2-month low. Flash Australia Manufacturing Output Index(3): 51.5 (Mar: 51.8). 2-month low. Flash Australia Manufacturing PMI(4): 51.7 (Mar: 52.1). 2-month low. Data were collected 09-17 April 2025
The Market Ear with the setup. Chop Our base case remains intact: this market needs to heal and it will take time before we get a new direction. Expect more choppiness. Resistance levels: 5450 (21 day), range highs at 5550. Note the 50 day still way higher, currently just below 5700. Support around the 5100
DXY finds a footing. AUD rocket flamed out. Lead boots going nowhere. Gold flame out, oil stable. Copper is a lunatic. Miners still stuffed. EM going nowhere forever now. Junk not priced for recession yet. Yields still tending to rise. Stock chop. Everybody is selling the whimpering greenback. More than stocks. Way more than yields.
Risk sentiment reversed its decline overnight mainly due to some off the cuff comments from the Trump regime’s Treasury Secretary about an “imminent” deal with China, which were since walked back but this sent a signal to buy USD and US stocks which saw Wall Street take back most of its recent session falls to