The Market Ear on the great AI inflation. “Lagom” – not too hot, not too cold Here’s the must-see flow & positioning data from the weekend — a continuation of the “Lagom” theme: not too hot, not too cold. Continued hedge funds de-risking and strange record Russell shorts meets continued systematic and retail buying. De-grossed
Bloomberg sees an endless Chinese property crash. Developer China South City Holdings Ltd. was ordered to liquidate by Hong Kong’s High Court, making it the biggest Chinese builder by assets to be wound up since China Evergrande Group. Always hopeful, Bloomberg also sees another bottom for Chinese property. Authorities are mulling more intervention. They have been considering
Out of all nations on earth, Canada is arguably the most similar to Australia. Both nations are resource-rich, hosting relatively small populations on massive landmasses. The overwhelming majority of the population lives in small pockets where the weather is most favourable. The bulk of Australia’s population lives on the East Coast, whereas the bulk of
The ferrous complex continues typical seasonal trading. This is all rather silly. Bloomberg. Iron ore gained after a Chinese consultancy said several steel mills had been told by authorities they will need to temporarily halt production later this month due to air pollution concerns.\ I know the market likes to be contrarian, but steel cuts
In the world of United States economics, it has been said that “the construction cycle is the economic cycle”. Looking at the data, there is certainly a degree of truth to that, with the number of homes under construction peaking and then falling significantly prior to 4 of the last 6 non-pandemic-related recessions. Perhaps the
New Zealand’s economy continues to struggle. The nation’s labour market has seen unemployment and underutilisation rates soar to near-decade highs outside of the pandemic. New New Zealand has lost close to 40,000 jobs since late 2023, with younger workers bearing the brunt. Unofficial labour market indicators, including SEEK’s job ad and applications per job ad
America is well prepared for the AI shock that is underway in its entry-level positions. It has sensibly reduced immigration to zero, ensuring that local youth are not competing with cheap foreign labour. Even so, there is increasing evidence that AI is moving faster than the economy can keep up. A few days ago, I
Melbourne’s housing market has experienced a long period of price stagnation compared with the other major capital cities. According to PropTrack, Melbourne’s median dwelling values rose by only 19.2% in the five years to July, compared with an average increase across the combined capital cities of 45.5%. Melbourne’s median dwelling value in July 2025 was
Last night saw risk markets stumble due to a lack of economic catalysts as traders await tomorrow’s US CPI print to see how sticky the inflation from the Trump regime’s stupid tariffs are affecting US consumers and hence the trajectory of the US Federal Reserve. The USD was mixed or slightly higher against the majors
DXY is back! AUD is not. Lead boots plod on. Gold bashed. Metals too. Big bear intact. EM shaky. Junk fine. The curve steepened. Stocks sold. At issue is the US CPI tomorrow. Goldman. Our analysis implies that tariff effects have boosted the core PCE price level by0.20% so far. We expect another 0.16% impact