Macro Afternoon: 22 April 2025
Sunset Connewarre AUD/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD GOLD WTI BRENT AUSTRALIA 200 US S&P 500 UK 100 JAPAN 225 Easy Listening
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EV tax lurks worsen budget deficit
Electric vehicles (EVs) are massively subsidised in Australia. First, more than $550 million of tax revenue is estimated to be lost annually due to the Fringe Benefits Tax (FBT) exemption for battery EVs and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs); however, the FBT exemptions for PHEVs ended on 1 April 2025. Under the FBT exemption policy, somebody who
Another housing market joins the million dollar club
CoreLogic’s latest monthly chart pack estimated that the value of Australia’s housing stock hit a record high of $11.3 trillion in March, spread across 11.3 million dwellings. This meant that the average value of an Australian home hit $1 million for the first time. Last week, Domain released its house price results for the March
Victoria drives into productivity slow lane
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) annual state accounts, Victoria’s per capita GDP fell by 1.2% in 2023-04 and has only risen by 10.4% since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008. Victoria’s performance compares poorly against the 1.0% national decline in per capita GDP in 2023-24 and the 14.5% increase recorded since
Australia’s media finds a new housing scapegoat
I have read some poor housing analyses in my time, but few are as awful as the Daily Telegraph’s Taylor Troeth, who blamed “stubborn empty nesters” for fueling NSW’s housing crisis. Troeth cites research from Australian Seniors showing that two-thirds of empty nesters in NSW “were still living in large family homes with no plans
Deflation tsunami sweeps towards Australia
Albert Edwards of Societe Generale famously coined the phrase “Ice Age” for the period leading up to and after the GFC. The Ice Age thesis was based on the notion that immensely deflationary forces would emanate from a balance sheet recession taking hold in developed economies. Now Edwards sees the same coming from and for
Even the left backs Coalition’s gas reservation
If it wins the upcoming federal election, the Dutton-led Coalition will commit to implementing a gas reservation policy covering Australia’s East Coast. Under the Coalition’s policy, uncontracted gas sold on the spot market must be reserved for domestic use. The Coalition would force companies to supply the gas domestically by imposing a levy on gas
Australian universities are financial black holes
Australia’s universities must rank as the nation’s most poorly run organisations. The number of commencing full-fee-paying international students hit a record high of 215,000 in 2024, roughly triple the number recorded in 2005. The total number of international enrolments also hit a record high of 499,371 in 2024, nearly triple the 178.806 total enrolments recorded
Stocks gap into the gaps
I am of the school of thought that markets like to fill gaps. When large daily moves transpire, the market tends to reverse and then fill the large moves with smaller moves in the same direction. It is a little disconcerting when this happens, but the resumption of the trend fills the gaps with more
Australian dollar overruns United States of Turkey
DXY is a falling comet aiming for an extinction-level event. But for what? Not AUD! Nor CNY. Gold is the forever currency now. Metals are confused by monetary versus fundamentals clash. Bg miners = big bear. EM yawn. Junk stress. Curve steepener going nuts as Treasury loses control of the long end. Stocks no likee.