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Articles from MacroBusiness

Aussie brace for unemployment shock

February 6, 2024 - 11:00 -- Admin

For several months, I have predicted that Australia’s unemployment rate would rise to around 5% by the end of this year, up from 3.9% currently. The reasons are simple. Forward-looking indicators like job ads and applications per job ad have deteriorated, as illustrated in the next chart from Seek: The number of job ads has

Victoria leads nation into debt slavery

February 6, 2024 - 10:00 -- Admin

The population ponzi is about to collapse on Victorians. Victoria has been at the forefront of Australia’s population expansion since the federal government increased immigration intake in the mid-2000s: Victoria’s population has increased by 2.1 million (46%) this century, reaching 6.8 million people. According to official forecasts, Victoria’s population would increase to 11.2 million by

Panic as housing construction craters and home builders fail

February 6, 2024 - 09:30 -- Admin

Last week was an unmitigated disaster for Australia’s housing market, with dwelling approvals and loans for purchasing or constructing a new home cratering. Annual dwelling approvals collapsed to only 162,200, which was the lowest result since March 2013 and below the historical average: Loans for purchasing or constructing a new home also remained near record

Macro Morning

February 6, 2024 - 09:00 -- Admin

Market expectations remain volatile in the wake of the US jobs report on Friday that saw the USD push the major currencies to new weekly lows while bond yields surged. This continued somewhat overnight as the latest ISM services print came in strong, indicating the US domestic economy remains well on track but Wall Street

Stocks rocked by 60 minutes

February 6, 2024 - 08:30 -- Admin

The Market Ear assesses the risks to the rally. 1 – More big beats. Less big misses 54% of companies reporting have beat street wide earnings estimates by >1SD. This is significantly higher than historical avg of 48%. Only 10% of companies have missed estimates by >1SD (less than historical avg of 13%). Goldman 2

Iron ore approaches a cliff

February 6, 2024 - 08:00 -- Admin

Dalian iron ore is weak and looking like it is breaking its uptrend: SGX has some catching down to do versus rebar futures: Scuttlebutt is not positive: Rising inventory weighed on sentiment. Iron ore inventory across 35 ports tracked by the Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) totalled 126.26 million metric tons in the week as of

Australian dollar hammered again

February 6, 2024 - 07:37 -- Admin

DXY to the moon: AUD through the trap door: North Asia with it: Oil and gold eased: Dirt puked: Miners too: EM yawn: Junk has abandoned the rally: As yields jackknife: Stocks only go up: Data and Fed speakers were all over the place, but it was generally a positive message. The JPM global PMI

Aussie housing tumbles off affordability cliff

February 6, 2024 - 00:05 -- Admin

PropTrack has released some stunning charts showing that Australia’s median housing affordability is the worst in at least 30 years: As shown above, the decline in affordability is broad-based, impacting both higher and lower-income earners. The next chart from PropTrack also shows that a median household in Australia can only afford 13% of homes sold