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Lunatic RBA toys with the tipping point

February 2, 2019 - 12:26 -- Admin

The lunatic RBA doesn’t want to cut interest rates. This is for two reasons that I can see: first, it thinks the Aussie economy is in good shape; second, it would rather hike to rebuild ammunition for the future. The first point is fast losing air. Australia’s fading growth drivers make it plain: credit growth

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Weekend Links 2-3 February, 2019

February 1, 2019 - 21:43 -- Admin

Jitterbugs, 1945, Weaver Hawkins, Art Gallery of NSW   Markets Macro & Investing The Sorry State of the World Economy – Project-Syndicate, Basu Trump hails China trade talks progress and says he will meet Xi Jinping soon – Guardian China says Washington trade talks were ‘frank’ and made ‘important progress’ – SCMP Donald Trump hails

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Macro Afternoon

February 1, 2019 - 16:30 -- Admin

Outside China it’s been a flat finish in the Asian session with most stock markets putting in scratch results as the US/China trade talks recommence. Currency markets are also sanguine although the Yuan has weakened for the first time this week leading into tonights NFP print. Chinese shares continue to move higher with the mainland

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China readying rate cuts?

February 1, 2019 - 14:15 -- Admin

Hello Shanghai Accord! With the Fed in neutral, Barclays says China is next to cut, via Bloomie: “Existing measures are not sufficient to lower the financing costs of the real economy, in a down-cycle with rising credit risk and falling producer-price inflation,” the analysts led by Jian Chang wrote in a note. “Hence, lowering the

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Credit Suisse: The RBA must move to cut the cash rate

February 1, 2019 - 14:00 -- Admin

Again great stuff from Damien Boey at Credit Suisse who has a much better grasp of the economy than does the lunatic RBA: By now, CPI, unemployment and RBA forecast downgrades are becoming old news … The Consensus view is that the RBA will moderately downgrade its forecasts, but not capitulate on its rate stance

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Weak China PMI slaps down Australian dollar

February 1, 2019 - 13:32 -- Admin

The Aussie dollar took a bit of pain following the sagging Caixin China PMI: Bonds are bid: XJO is not: The iron ore rally has reached hysterical proportions. There will be no shortage of it this year as Rio Minas returns, Vale manages its spare capacity, the Pilbara pumps a bit more and China slows:

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Previewing US jobs

February 1, 2019 - 13:30 -- Admin

Via Calculated Risk: On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for January. The consensus is for an increase of 158,000 non-farm payroll jobs in January (with a range of estimates between 140,000 to 183,000), and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 3.9%. Last month, the BLS reported

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China Caixin PMI down down

February 1, 2019 - 13:15 -- Admin

Via Caixin: Latest survey data signalled subdued overall operating conditions in the Chinese manufacturing sector at the start of 2019. Production and total new work were both slightly down at the start of the year, despite a renewed increase in export orders. Relatively muted demand conditions underpinned the first fall in purchasing activity for 20

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Back to the bad old days for Chris Joye

February 1, 2019 - 13:00 -- Admin

From Chris Joye today: If Prime Minister Scott Morrison pulls off a miracle and wins the May election, housing conditions should stabilise as investors pile back into the market to pick up cheap assets once the threat of Labor’s deleterious tax changes is removed. I also expect the accessibility of credit to improve following the royal

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